January Forecast Discussion

[alwaysready126]

Mount Holly:

GENERAL OUTLOOK: THE STAIR STEP DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AND THEN BELOW

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE

THROUGH THE REGION. OUR OLD FRIEND, THE POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY IN

NORTHWESTERN CANADA IS ABOUT TO TAKE A HIT. AN UPWARD PROPAGATING

ROSSBY WAVE IS PREDICTED TO PERTURB AND ELONGATE IT DURING THE

LONG TERM PERIOD (AND BEYOND). THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEND PART OF

THE VORTEX INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA. COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES

CRESTING THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE, THEY WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO

BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST

ECMWF STRATOSPHERIC MODEL SOLUTION POLAR VORTEX HIT IS SO INTENSE,

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER THAT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING

(STRONGER AROUND 10MB FOR NOW) IS PREDICTED TO START. WHETHER IT

CAN WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE TROPOSPHERE AND WHERE IT DOES,

WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE`S WEATHER AND

TELECONNECTION PATTERNS INTO FEBRUARY.

[kevbo81]

read the mt holly stuff before. top notch stuff ...can't find that type of analysis  in many WFO's around the country 

[David-LI]

gfs looking interesting for the 20ish

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

gfs looking interesting for the 20ish

 

From the 23rd to 24th. That looks pretty good, but it's 204 hours out. 

[David-LI]

From the 23rd to 24th. That looks pretty good, but it's 204 hours out. 

true, but it has been consistently showing something for that time frame it seems 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

true, but it has been consistently showing something for that time frame it seems 

 

Yeah. There's something there, but the details have yet to be determined. 

[NaoPos]

true, but it has been consistently showing something for that time frame it seems

Actually, it hasn't. Wasn't too long ago (3-5 days ago) it was showing warmer weather with northern streams staying north of 45.

[MJO812]

0z GGEM looks really interesting for this weekend

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg

[Rjay]

The 0z Euro looked quite active throughout it's run.

[user13]

The last 3rd of January looks fun

[atownwxwatcher]

00z verbatim (ECM) is actually less snow filled then the 12 Z ECM from yesterday was!

[PB GFI]

Dont look at the surface

[Rjay]

00z verbatim (ECM) is actually less snow filled then the 12 Z ECM from yesterday was!

Forget looking for snow especially in the LR...it's an active pattern as depicted by the Euro. That's all that matters right now. You iron out the details later.

[NEG NAO]

Forget looking for snow especially in the LR...it's an active pattern as depicted by the Euro. That's all that matters right now. You iron out the details later.

exactly - also we will have to deal with a positive NAO through the end of the month according to the indicies forecasts - but this time around will have a posittve PNA to go along with the neg AO and EPO and MJO forecasted to go through phase 7 then either into phase 8 or the COD

[bluewave]

Dont look at the surface

 

We have to watch that vort over Iowa to see if keeps the lead wave too progressive for us. 

[PB GFI]

We have to watch that vort over Iowa to see if keeps the lead wave too progressive for us.

I think that keeps it from being big just not enough not to snow

[bluewave]

I think that keeps it from being big just not enough not to snow

 

We should rename this kickerfest 2014. 

[PB GFI]

We should rename this kickerfest 2014. 

So many Vorts rotating through in the next 10 to 15 days  One gets ya .

[REDMK6GLI]

We should rename this kickerfest 2014.

Thread worthy! Start the thread buddy lol

[bluewave]

So many Vorts rotating through in the next 10 to 15 days  One gets ya .

 

It will be interesting to see how low the 850's get near the end of the month in the cross polar flow into Canada

as the models are honking for the -EPO ridge to make yet another comeback. Notice how the EPO keeps getting

more negative the closer we get. Gotta give the JMA big credit for seeing the trough setting

up in the East from way back in November.

 

2 days ago

 

 

Now

 

[PB GFI]

It will be interesting to see how low the 850's get near the end of the month in the cross polar flow into Canada

as the models are honking for the -EPO ridge to make yet another comeback. Notice how the EPO keeps getting

more negative the closer we get. Gotta give the JMA big credit for seeing the trough setting

up in the East from way back in November.

 

2 days ago

 

4panel.png

 

Now

 

New.png

The JMA monthlies were  so spot on  from NOV on- to the point it caught  the warm up in between the cold

and it showed the Pos PNA and its hook up over the top .

 

I will tell you this has to be the Euro weeklies worst showing that I can ever remember .

[PB GFI]

GFS 5 day  2 M mean JAN 25- 30 from  KNYC thru the TENN valley .  -11 C below normal

-20 C upper midwest through the lakes and into NNE

[PB GFI]

I would love to be East of the lakes in the next 2 weeks .

[earthlight]

The entire set up is too progressive and muddled through Days 5-7 to support anything of significance in our area. 

 

I suggest taking a bit of a break and checking back in on Friday or Saturday. You'll like what you see on the models by then, and you'll save yourself time and anxiety. 

 

These types of patterns are always sniffed out early by the models but take some time and progression to become established. 

[ace0927]

The entire set up is too progressive and muddled through Days 5-7 to support anything of significance in our area. 

 

I suggest taking a bit of a break and checking back in on Friday or Saturday. You'll like what you see on the models by then, and you'll save yourself time and anxiety. 

 

These types of patterns are always sniffed out early by the models but take some time and progression to become established. 

if the euro is right day 10 looks like it is setting up something nice...pattern wise (not specifically snow).

[SnoSki14]

The entire set up is too progressive and muddled through Days 5-7 to support anything of significance in our area. 

 

I suggest taking a bit of a break and checking back in on Friday or Saturday. You'll like what you see on the models by then, and you'll save yourself time and anxiety. 

 

These types of patterns are always sniffed out early by the models but take some time and progression to become established. 

 

I hope so, would be a shame to waste this upcoming pattern with little to show for it except a few cold days.

[PB GFI]

If the metric you are using to judge this winter is how much blocking shows up and  when and where do we see a KU event , then you  may not want to read on .

KU events are very rare , although 8 have happened in the last 12 years and it has led many of you to think it is the norm . The truth is its not .

NEG NAO has a great piece on how many we have seen here in the last 150 years . Its a good read .

 

Secondly we haven`t had real blocking since  Sandy , so I am gona go out on a limb here and assume that continues thru Feb . There is this idea here  that you cant get a snowstorm with a Pos or Neut NAO its not true , I  guess that depends on what`s you`re definition of a snowstorm is  ?

If you can accept that 6 to 12 inches of snow is a major snowstorm in KNYC than you think like me and that's always on the table  .

Now I will grant you the 20 to 25 inch storms that have occurred from DC to Bangor will ALWAYS  need blocking ,

but they are so rare and when I sign on In the AM  I assume that that's not in the modeling . ( not going  out on a limb here ) .

But ok , you tell me ,  would you rather have 20 inches of snow , only to be gone within a week to 10 days  due to a week of 50 degrees or a Rainstorm that is sure to follow it ( because that's mostly what happens here after  these storms ) , or a   3to 6 then maybe a  6 to 12 ,that puts down  good Snow cover and its cold for 3 weeks and you feel like its Burlington VT ?  .  Keep you`re KU ,  bring me multiple moderate events over the next 3 weeks  and bring the cold  and that's a winter pattern many here don't see that often .

Just MO

[rcad1]

Couldn't agree more PB GFI I'll take multiple 3-6" events any day. Defiantly couldn't complain about a pattern like that after living in Western Nassau for 35 years you are correct that is a pattern that we normally don't see..

[bluewave]

If the metric you are using to judge this winter is how much blocking shows up and  when and where do we see a KU event , then you  may not want to read on .

KU events are very rare , although 8 have happened in the last 12 years and it has led many of you to think it is the norm . The truth is its not .

NEG NAO has a great piece on how many we have seen here in the last 150 years . Its a good read .

 

Secondly we haven`t had real blocking since  Sandy , so I am gona go out on a limb here and assume that continues thru Feb . There is this idea here  that you cant get a snowstorm with a Pos or Neut NAO its not true , I  guess that depends on what`s you`re definition of a snowstorm is  ?

If you can accept that 6 to 12 inches of snow is a major snowstorm in KNYC than you think like me and that's always on the table  .

Now I will grant you the 20 to 25 inch storms that have occurred from DC to Bangor will ALWAYS  need blocking ,

but they are so rare and when I sign on In the AM  I assume that that's not in the modeling . ( not going  out on a limb here ) .

But ok , you tell me ,  would you rather have 20 inches of snow , only to be gone within a week to 10 days  due to a week of 50 degrees or a Rainstorm that is sure to follow it ( because that's mostly what happens here after  these storms ) , or a   3to 6 then maybe a  6 to 12 ,that puts down  good Snow cover and its cold for 3 weeks and you feel like its Burlington VT ?  .  Keep you`re KU ,  bring me multiple moderate events over the next 3 weeks  and bring the cold  and that's a winter pattern many here don't see that often .

Just MO

 

This has been our greatest era for multiple KU events in the last 100 years. It's also very impressive how close we came

to another one earlier this month with the Davis Strait block popping up within  a long +AO period. The patterns have been

such that LI and CT had an historic storm last February in an unlikely looking 500 mb pattern. That SE Canada

block created a surprising phase close enough to the coast. 

 

 

100 years  of 12" snowstorms  in NYC over 20 year intervals.

 

1994-2013........10

1974-1993........4

1953-1972........7

1933-1952........4

1913-1932........5

[PB GFI]

This has been our greatest era for multiple KU events in the last 100 years. It's also very impressive how close we came

to another one earlier this month with the Davis Strait block popping up within  a long +AO period. The patterns have been

such that LI and CT had an historic storm last February in an unlikely looking 500 mb pattern.

 

 

100 years  of 12" snowstorms  in NYC over 20 year intervals.

 

1994-2013........10

1974-1993........4

1953-1972........7

1933-1952........4

1913-1932........5

So many of these KU s have been wiped out within a week to 10 days since 96 for me . Not saying they aren't what we live for but why not just root on the pattern you are dealt and hope it over preforms. Saves angst