January Forecast Discussion

[uncle W]

Temp below freezing here now with dense fog.

same here...my car windshield is frozen...

[Brian5671]

Some of the densest fog that I have ever seen here in Western Nassau just north of the 

Southern State with zero visibility.

Wow-nothing at all here.  We're at 28 degrees so maybe that's why--a lot of black ice out there this am around here

[BxEngine]

Wow-nothing at all here. We're at 28 degrees so maybe that's why--a lot of black ice out there this am around here

We had ice and heavy heavy fog earlier, but it burned off within the last 20 minutes or so.

[bluewave]

Wow-nothing at all here.  We're at 28 degrees so maybe that's why--a lot of black ice out there this am around here

 

This was the thickest fog at dawn that I have seen in this part of the county. The zero vis  was more like something that

I have seen driving along the immediate south shore on dense fog days.

 

 

http://www.newsday.com/news/weather/drivers-urged-to-use-caution-on-icy-foggy-roads-1.6802067

Dense fog and black ice created hazardous driving for morning commuters Wednesday.

The National Weather Service issued a dense fog advisory for Nassau and Suffolk counties, and Suffolk police said 13 motor-vehicle accidents related to the weather had been reported before 6:30 a.m.

At least two of the 13 crashes involved overturned vehicles, a department spokeswoman said, including one in Shirley on the William Floyd Parkway and another in Stony Brook, on North Country Road and Stony Brook Road.

"Anyone traveling should exercise extra caution and leave plenty of space in front of them," the Upton-based weather service said in its fog advisory, which runs until 9 a.m. and covers portions of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey.

Suffolk police advised in an email at about 6:30 a.m. of the hazardous driving conditions and urged caution. Nassau police said early Wednesday the department had not received an inordinate number of calls for weather-related crashes.

The state Department of Transportation closed the north and south service roads of the Long Island Expressway in Suffolk, between Blue Point Road and County Road 83, because of icy conditions at about 7 a.m. The agency expected the closure to last about two hours.

The service said also said in its advisory that the combination of light winds and abundant low-level moisture has caused the fog.

With temperatures at or below freezing through midmorning, icy conditions will result on untreated roadways, the service said.

Visibility is expected to be less than one-quarter mile in some areas, so the service also urged drivers to slow down, leave plenty of space between vehicles and use low-beam headlights.

[BlueSkiesFading]

Still have extremely dense fog in Lyndhurst. Visibility is about 50-100 ft. Temp is 32.2.

[REDMK6GLI]

I showed the Euro 5 day means last nite in the 11 to 15 day period , according to the CFSV2 that's not the end of it .

Jan 21 thru Feb 4 would be a long stretch of very cold weather from the Rockies East .

If only we could get some blocking for the kickerfest 2014 ( bluewave's name ) stretch coming up we'd be in business as far as snow goes as well

[CIK62]

This has been our greatest era for multiple KU events in the last 100 years. It's also very impressive how close we came

to another one earlier this month with the Davis Strait block popping up within  a long +AO period. The patterns have been

such that LI and CT had an historic storm last February in an unlikely looking 500 mb pattern. That SE Canada

block created a surprising phase close enough to the coast. 

 

 

100 years  of 12" snowstorms  in NYC over 20 year intervals.

 

1994-2013........10

1974-1993........4

1953-1972........7

1933-1952........4

1913-1932........5

How about the 20 inchers. Didn't it take 125 years to get 4 of them and then just the last 20 years to double that amount?, or something lkie that.

[uncle W]

How about the 20 inchers. Didn't it take 125 years to get 4 of them and then just the last 20 years to double that amount?, or something lkie that.

snowfalls 10" or greater......20" in red...

Year....date....amount"...

1872...12/26.......18.0"

1875...4/13.........10.0"

1876...2/3-4........11.0"

1877...1/1-2........13.0"

1879...1/15-16....13.0"

1888...3/12-14....21.0"

1896...3/2...........10.0"

1896...3/15-16....12.0"

1897...1/27-28....10.0"

1898...11/26-27..10.0"

1899...2/12-14....16.0"

1902...2/17..........10.0"

1905...1/24-25.....11.0"

1907...2/4-5.........11.0"

1908...1/23-24.....10.0"

1910...1/14-15.....10.0"

1912...12/24........11.4"

1914...3/1-2.........14.5"

1915...4/3-4.........10.2"

1916...12/15........12.7"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"

1921...2/20..........12.5"

1925...1/2............11.5"

1926...2/3-4.........10.4"

1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1933...2/11..........10.0"

1933...12/26........11.2"

1935...1/23-24.....13.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"

1947...2/20-21.....10.7"

1947...12/26-27...26.4"

1948...12/19-20...16.0"

1956...3/18-19.....11.6"

1958...3/19-20.....11.8"

1959...12/21-22...13.7"

1960...3/3-4.........14.5"

1960...12/11-12...15.2"

1961...2/3-4.........17.4"

1964...1/12-13.....12.5"

1967...2/7............12.5"

1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"

1978...2/6-7.........17.7"

1979...2/19..........12.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"

1994...2/11..........12.8"

1995...2/4............10.8"

1996...1/7-8.........20.2"

1996...2/16-17.....10.7"

2000...12/30........12.0"

2003...2/16-17.....19.8"

2003...12/5-6.......14.0"

2004...1/28..........10.4"

2005...1/22-23.....13.8"

2006...2/11-12.....26.9"

2009...12/19-20...10.9"

2010...2/9-10.......10.0"

2010...2/25-26.....20.9"

2010...12/26-27...20.0"

2011...1/25-26.....19.0"

2013...2/8-9.........11.4"

1870's...5

1880's...1

1890's...5

1900's...4

1910's...5

1920's...5

1930's...3

1940's...4

1950's...3

1960's...6

1970's...3

1980's...1

1990's...5

2000's...7

2010's...5

 

[bluewave]

How about the 20 inchers. Didn't it take 125 years to get 4 of them and then just the last 20 years to double that amount?, or something lkie that.

 

6 of the top ten biggest snowstorms at Central Park have occurred since 1996.

 

[PB GFI]

6 of the top ten biggest snowstorms at Central Park have occurred since 1996.

 

Screen shot 2014-01-15 at 9.33.57 AM.png

50 perc of them have fallen in the last 13 years , but look at the 49 year  drought between 1949 and 1996 .

For you guys under 30 - you are very lucky .

[pazzo83]

snowfalls 10" or greater......20" in red...

Year....date....amount"...

1872...12/26.......18.0"

1875...4/13.........10.0"

1876...2/3-4........11.0"

1877...1/1-2........13.0"

1879...1/15-16....13.0"

1888...3/12-14....21.0"

1896...3/2...........10.0"

1896...3/15-16....12.0"

1897...1/27-28....10.0"

1898...11/26-27..10.0"

1899...2/12-14....16.0"

1902...2/17..........10.0"

1905...1/24-25.....11.0"

1907...2/4-5.........11.0"

1908...1/23-24.....10.0"

1910...1/14-15.....10.0"

1912...12/24........11.4"

1914...3/1-2.........14.5"

1915...4/3-4.........10.2"

1916...12/15........12.7"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"

1921...2/20..........12.5"

1925...1/2............11.5"

1926...2/3-4.........10.4"

1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1933...2/11..........10.0"

1933...12/26........11.2"

1935...1/23-24.....13.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"

1947...2/20-21.....10.7"

1947...12/26-27...26.4"

1948...12/19-20...16.0"

1956...3/18-19.....11.6"

1958...3/19-20.....11.8"

1959...12/21-22...13.7"

1960...3/3-4.........14.5"

1960...12/11-12...15.2"

1961...2/3-4.........17.4"

1964...1/12-13.....12.5"

1967...2/7............12.5"

1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"

1978...2/6-7.........17.7"

1979...2/19..........12.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"

1994...2/11..........12.8"

1995...2/4............10.8"

1996...1/7-8.........20.2"

1996...2/16-17.....10.7"

2000...12/30........12.0"

2003...2/16-17.....19.8"

2003...12/5-6.......14.0"

2004...1/28..........10.4"

2005...1/22-23.....13.8"

2006...2/11-12.....26.9"

2009...12/19-20...10.9"

2010...2/9-10.......10.0"

2010...2/25-26.....20.9"

2010...12/26-27...20.0"

2011...1/25-26.....19.0"

2013...2/8-9.........11.4"

1870's...5

1880's...1

1890's...5

1900's...4

1910's...5

1920's...5

1930's...3

1940's...4

1950's...3

1960's...6

1970's...3

1980's...1

1990's...5

2000's...7

2010's...5

 

 

We almost have as many 10" snowfalls in the 2010s as we've had in any prior decade, and we aren't even half way through the decade yet...

[Superstorm]

And interesting to see that 2/3 of the 20"+ storms have occurred in the last 18 years.

[PB GFI]

[MJO812]

Storm signal is stil on the GFS for the 22nd-23rd.

[NEG NAO]

Storm signal is stil on the GFS for the 22nd-23rd.

yes large high pressure to the north - no LP near the great lakes to hinder development and this shows a banana high configuration

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

 

lets see if this shows up for a few runs in a row

[IsentropicLift]

The system on the 12z GFS slated around the 25th would in reality end up as an epic bomb. The trouble is that the energy comes in as a closed low at hour 156 over Washington state. The 06z GFS took the same shortwave and kept it very weak sending it up over the top of the western Canadian ridge. It's all model noise at this point but I would look at that week for something significant.

 

One of the problems remains the fast flow despite a nice PNA spike over the next two weeks. The GFS is full of multiple strong shortwaves with little to no room to amplify. We need some high latitude blocking over Greenland this year more than ever. In this setup, even if a strong wave is able to wrap up and amplify, it's going to be a fast mover. That seemingly endless supply of arctic high pressure systems is long gone.

 

The Polar Vortex is forecasted to eventually move southward and under cut the western ridge around the end of this month. That will bring with it another shot of very cold temperatures as 850 temps will be in the -20 range or colder for a large portion of the country, but the upper mid-west and lakes will once again see the brunt of the arctic outbreak with a shot at zero again around here. Temperatures then look to moderate again just in time for the Super Bowl.

 

The 12z GGEM has some blocking in the long range. It deepens the clipper on Sunday/Monday down to 953mb before retrograding over Canada and that in return amplifies the western Atlantic ridge.

[MJO812]

Jeez, the GFS is an icebox in the long range.

[PB GFI]

Any moderation around the Super Bowl looks to go from Frigid to just Cold and prob Snowy for a large part of the country

[jm1220]

Jeez, the GFS is an icebox in the long range.

The ridge really looks to spike up into NW Canada and it may even hook up to the ridge over Asia, making for a strong flow directly from the pole. And it looks like a more stable cold regime than earlier this month, with cold perhaps not quite as severe as before but longer lasting. Hopefully some storm opportunities line up with the cold regime.

[dbc]

The ridge really looks to spike up into NW Canada and it may even hook up to the ridge over Asia, making for a strong flow directly from the pole. And it looks like a more stable cold regime than earlier this month, with cold perhaps not quite as severe as before but longer lasting. Hopefully some storm opportunities line up with the cold regime.

Yup I was thinking about that exact thought this morning and I believe that matches well with past -EPO winters that yielded late December-early January severe cold. This winter just has that feel to me.

[patrick05]

looks like fog is moving back in here at FRG... it was sunny already earlier and vis improved to 2mi at the airport, now back to miserable clouds and fog...

[Dsnowx53]

Read that earlier. Good stuff as always!

 

 

Nice article Man. Fun times ahead!

 

 

Thanks for the kind words! 

 

And yes, tracking these disturbances will certainly be fun. At the very least, the PNA ridge amplifiying, cutting off, and retrograding towards Alaska certainly spells a lot of cold. 

[IsentropicLift]

And the 12z Euro goes boom hours 150 and beyond. Low develops over Ohio and passes south of us. Hour 156 is widespread snow. Hour 162 sub 992 mb low just inside the benchmark. We get in on the developing CCB. Heavy snow. Hour 168 it's into the gulf of Maine. Big snowstorm for New England. 4-6" south and east of KHPN. The surface profile is a little warm at first which would keep accumulations down to start. All of NJ is 4"+ from KTTN north.

 

This is obviously dependent on a snow pack and and an intensifying low pressure system to our northeast, but the Euro has the 2M 0 degree isotherm touching NYC at hour 192.

 

Our low in question gets down to at least the 940's over Canada as one last piece of energy attempts to drop into the trough but it gets pushed offshore day 9.

 

The Euro takes that strong low that enters the Pacific northwest on day 6 and drives it south, cutting it off under the PNA ridge. Overall the pattern looks a lot more exciting that the GFS.

[PB GFI]

D7 .

[bluewave]

The PV squeezes down into the Lakes and New England right behind the storm so temps

dipping below 10 in NYC would be possible again. Spots that radiate will do well with

snowcover if the high passes directly over us and winds go calm.

[PB GFI]

Below 0 hr 192  as per Euro  KNYC .

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The ECM has been showing that undercutting Pacific Vort for 3 runs in a row now. Hmmmm.....

[SnoSki14]

The Euro will probably show nothing next run, but I guess it's still nice to see. Some very cold weather is looking more and more likely though.

[bluewave]

A second cross polar Arctic shot is lined up right behind the first one next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Hopefully people have enjoyed this mild break because we could see temperatures just as cold as we've seen in early January. Any snow cover would certainly enhance the cold out here, maybe below zero temperatures are still in play?