Central PA & The Fringes - December 2013 Part III

[Mallow]

Big swing in the weather pattern will yield run-to-run differences in the model guidance.  The EURO shows a big hit north of the turnpike, but it would not surprise me if the north trends makes this a Route 22 and points north thread in the end.

 

The biggest swings so far aren't really because of northward/southward trends... they're with the amplification of the 500mb pattern and subsequent evolution (strengthening/remaining weak) of the low--though this aspect definitely affects the track as well. I do think we'll be talking about potential northward/westward or southward/eastward trends when the amplification part is finally figured out, but I think we need to get all the models on the same page at the beginning of the event first... and the GFS took a big step in that direction.

[Itstrainingtime]

Impressive temperature drop...down to 35.8 now.

[JamieOber]

If anything, the 00z UKMET looked slightly more amplified than the Euro by hr 72.

 

EDIT: 12z GFS definitely coming in more amplified (by 00z Thu) than the previous runs. Not quite as amplified as the Euro/UKMET, but I am guessing we'll see somewhat of an improvement this run. Hopefully we can keep that trend up!

 

12Z GFS is a good run. Like the trend on it over last few runs.

 

Big swing in the weather pattern will yield run-to-run differences in the model guidance.  The EURO shows a big hit north of the turnpike, but it would not surprise me if the north trends makes this a Route 22 and points north thread in the end.

Could really be the case, given the models on this.

 

This is nothing new to winter storms in our area. For the life of me I can't understand why people freak out when a model shows a bad solution. Until we get inside 48 hours we will likely continue to see differing solutions on the models.

Steady as she goes.

[NortheastPAWx]

Extreme eastern PA is getting in on the 0.50"+ QPF line also.

[Eskimo Joe]

North of Mason-Dixon is sitting pretty for at least a plowable snowfall later this week it seems.  Remember we have the Farm Show Effect^TM.  

[NortheastPAWx]

OP GFS has ensemble backing.

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

What I take from the models is that there is storm "potential", and significant storm potential at that.  That is all you can take at long lead times and not get caught up verbatim in snow maps etc., except to illustrate the potential.  As we start to close in as we are today it appears that that "potential" is increasing, but nothing is ever written in stone as we all know, especially with a Miller B scenario.  I like the "trends" and the models are certainly slowly keying in on the players on the field and data sampling is clearly improving as we are closer in.  Hopefully the 12Z Euro will continue to key in with diving the energy further south getting everyone from the MA north into some serious fun.  Anything can happen, but the guidance is swinging in our favor, but it is only guidance and not gospel, especially around 84 hours out.  A lot will change and still evolve here. 

[Atomixwx]

When was the last time it really snowed Farm Show week?

[NortheastPAWx]

KAVP + 12z GFS = + 

140101/1500Z 51 28006KT 22.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140101/1800Z 54 28006KT 25.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
140101/2100Z 57 32004KT 24.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0
140102/0000Z 60 VRB02KT 21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140102/0300Z 63 07003KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140102/0600Z 66 08004KT 21.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140102/0900Z 69 08004KT 22.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
140102/1200Z 72 08005KT 22.2F SNOW 16:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140102/1500Z 75 07006KT 22.0F SNOW 15:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 16:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
140102/1800Z 78 06006KT 22.0F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 12:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0
140102/2100Z 81 06006KT 21.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0
140103/0000Z 84 05006KT 19.8F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 12:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140103/0300Z 87 02007KT 18.4F SNOW 18:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 13:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0
140103/0600Z 90 02007KT 16.4F SNOW 17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 14:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0
140103/0900Z 93 36008KT 14.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 13:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0
140103/1200Z 96 34009KT 11.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 12:1| 7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140103/1500Z 99 34011KT 9.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 13:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 100| 0| 0
140103/1800Z 102 33013KT 7.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70 100| 0| 0
140103/2100Z 105 33012KT 0.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70 0| 0| 0
140104/0000Z 108 33009KT -5.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70 0| 0| 0

140104/0300Z 111 33007KT -7.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140104/0600Z 114 33006KT -9.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140104/0900Z 117 33005KT -8.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140104/1200Z 120 33003KT -9.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

[canderson]

Wait, there's a storm potentially on the horizon? When is this modeled to maybe possibly take place if it indeed does occur?

[whiteout]

Any of out mets in here that can comment on the euro???? Hearing 996 mb off Delmarva

[daxx]

Another great euro run.  Big snowstorm for all!!

[pasnownut]

Wait, there's a storm potentially on the horizon? When is this modeled to maybe possibly take place if it indeed does occur?

Yes.  Euro showed a nice storm at 0z and is now showing a MECS Thursday.  GFS jumping back in line and several other models are starting to show a potential good one. Go to NY forum.  Yanksfan is doing the PBP and its pure porn.  He just suggested a Miller A.  I wish I had Euro access.

 

 

Nut

[JamieOber]

Wait, there's a storm potentially on the horizon? When is this modeled to maybe possibly take place if it indeed does occur?

 

Wait, there's a storm potentially on the horizon? When is this modeled to maybe possibly take place if it indeed does occur?

 

 

Yes.  Euro showed a nice storm at 0z and is now showing a MECS Thursday.  GFS jumping back in line and several other models are starting to show a potential good one. Go to NY forum.  Yanksfan is doing the PBP and its pure porn.  He just suggested a Miller A.  I wish I had Euro access.

 

 

Nut

Not to mention very cold Saturday am.

[daxx]

Sv maps showing 0.75" to 1.25"qpf. 

[NortheastPAWx]

Why aren't we 48hrs out instead of 96? Sigh

[whiteout]

Yeah MidAtl thread just posted the snow maps from SV and we get shellacked, pretty much everyone! Let's hold this!

[daxx]

Saturday morning temps are below zero, for most of us. Wow!!

[Superstorm]

Weekend Rule+Farm Show...book it!

[daxx]

Next Monday showing a storm.  Snow for central and western pa.  Looks like rain to snow in lsv.

[Wmsptwx]

Anyone have qpf for central pa?

[JamieOber]

Anyone have qpf for central pa?

1.08 UNV

1.11 IPT

1.18 MDT

[Voyager]

1.08 UNV

1.11 IPT

1.18 MDT

 

 

Looks like the qpf goes up slightly as one goes east. Extrapoliating out toward the edge of the CWA, perhaps up to 1.25"?

[NortheastPAWx]

Ray (famartin) says KAVP gets 1.07" QPF verbatim.

[sauss06]

should be decent ratios with the cold temps. Mid 20's right? 15:1 ish

[Mallow]

Storm 2:

 

Euro, ORLY?

[2001kx]

#1

 

 

[Mallow]

Let's keep in mind that the Canadian model still looks like previous GFS runs. The UKMET actually trended towards the GFS (though it's still better than the 12z GFS, but definitely not as good as the Euro). Still a lot that can go wrong here.

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Those snow maps are at ratios of 10:1.  Factor in a 15:1 ratio you are looking at a potential 1-2 foot event region wide followed by historic cold.  I like the "POTENTIAL!!!" 

 

What I like is this is a WIDESPREAD EVENT!  No more pure imby stuff.  We all get in on some serious fun!

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Let's keep in mind that the Canadian model still looks like previous GFS runs. The UKMET actually trended towards the GFS (though it's still better than the 12z GFS, but definitely not as good as the Euro). Still a lot that can go wrong here.

THIS!  We have seen with this system drastic model changes in the last 24 hours, more may come and will come.  We need another cycle of runs to convince me.  I like the potential here, and the trends, but will not fuel the snowblower just yet.  A lot can go wrong, we have all seen this movie before.