sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Alot of people i have seen on facebook must follow Eastern weather, they're all sharing the graphics and write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have a problem with a graphic on Facebook showing the "greatest odds for a major or crippling storm". That's simply hype at this point and irresponsible to put it out there. Sorry just had to vent and get that off My chest. Agree 100% Jim. If you want a real laugh though, you should read the public comments that follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sensational meteorology. Plain and simple. That drives people to the site and then sells subscriptions to their app. It is not about the science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 They also have rain/snow for State College (and a high of 32F...). I think they just haven't put a lot of thought into the grids just yet. I noticed that, too, and was quite confused considering what the forecaster said in the AFD. I can't get past their horrible website. Looks like it was done by a 10 year old on acid back in 1997. Thank you! I am glad that I am not the only one who has noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sensational meteorology. Plain and simple. That drives people to the site and then sells subscriptions to their app. It is not about the science. The worst kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Out to hr 48, the 00z NAM looks like a minor improvement over the 18z NAM. Guessing it'll still be a big miss in the end, though. 21z SREFs hold steady from the 15z runs. EDIT: Actually at hr 51, the 00z NAM is looking more interesting. The structure of the low is suggestive of at least some precip moving over us as the low develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is on. 0.25+ for all, 0.50+ across the entire northern 1/3rd. Below 0 temps north of 80 at hr84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is on. 0.25+ for all, 0.50+ across the entire northern 1/3rd. Below 0 temps north of 80 at hr84. Definitely an improvement! I'm still hoping for a Euro solution, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is on. 0.25+ for all, 0.50+ across the entire northern 1/3rd. Yea def a big step on that model, although note what the 850 track over PA does to the heavy snowfall/QPF axis focusing on nothern Penn and southern NY. 3 inch line along roughly the I-70 corridor in western Penn and then the turnpike across the rest of the state. 6 inch line generally runs I-80. 8-12 in the far northern tier for places like Bradford, Mansfield, Port Jervis, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea def a big step on that model, although note what the 850 track over PA does to the heavy snowfall/QPF axis focusing on nothern Penn and southern NY. 3 inch line along roughly the I-70 corridor in western Penn and then the turnpike across the rest of the state. 6 inch line generally runs I-80. 8-12 in the far northern tier for places like Bradford, Mansfield, Port Jervis, etc. Well that sounds reasonable given the precip numbers I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Also checked the SREF plumes, for what they're worth - taking out the two high and low outliers, mean got up over 6" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Aaaand the 00z GFS is pretty crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Models just don't want to give us the solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We should take a road trip to Lowell, Mass., for this one. Have a feeling they'll be major jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Aaaand the 00z GFS is pretty crappy It seems to be on its own. For now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The New England mets saying that the 0z GFS is the most reasonable solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 UKMET and GGEM are crap as well...well this is just falling apart fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's not like it held itself together all that long, anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It seems to be on its own. For now anyway. Meh... it's always been pretty iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Add the NOGAPS to the no storm pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And so the roller coaster ride continues. There are at least 8 more runs of each model left to go before anything even begins. Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any way this can still go wrong MAG - e.g. is it possible that 2-3 becomes our ceiling instead of the floor? 0z models just went ahead and did exactly that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro qpf: UNV .30 IPT .40 MDT .34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro took away the bigger snow but leaves us with an advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro took away the bigger snow but leaves us with an advisory level event. Had a feeling that the EURO would come back to earth with what most of the other models are showing. Probably more of a reasonable solution at this time. Still time for things to change a little. The Pittsburgh area could get shafted a bit if the low tracks right over us and phases too late, so we'd have a dry slot to probably deal with as well. At least you guys should get a little more further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z models just went ahead and did exactly that Yea that's the danger of having a single model with the deep solution, even if it was the Euro. I still think we at least see some snowfall from the overrunning that develops. The worst model I saw for that was the CMC which rode the majority of the initial overrunning north and west.. leaving us pretty high and dry. Rest of the models at least has that going, and that includes the NAVGEM and UKMET. Someone in the New England thread had a screen shot of the UKMET earlier with total precip thru 72 hrs and it looked like a few tenths for alot of central PA. Need another model cycle (6,12,18,0z) to have a much better determination on what's going to happen. Second storm is definitely still on the Euro, can't really get too detailed cuz still on text data. But looks like a mix-rain to heavy snow deal with a lot of QPF. Canadian had this type of a storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow lol, that is one heck of a second storm on the Euro, runs from the spine of the Apps in eastern Tenn into central VA (988mb) and explosively deepens to a 976 low along the PA/NJ border (hr 162). Curls NNW and is 960mb on the St Lawrence.... and bottoms out at a whopping 952mb as it moves north. Looked like a pretty prolific snowstorm in western/central Penn and western NY. Eastern Penn would actually be dealing with warmer air and possibly a good bit of rain before a changeover. New England doesn't see much at all with the low tracking like it does. But yea we'll see about that. The storm slated for Thursday didn't really look all that bad for us on the Euro once I had a look at the maps, it's still probably the best for snowfall. Generally 3 inches or so for most of Penn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The ground is whitening from the light snow thats falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 May I suggest not looking at the 6z NAM this morning. Basically dryslots the LSV and eastern/southeastern PA. Less than 0.10" qpf. GFS looks a bit better for the northern tier and areas east of the Susquehanna with 0.25-0.50" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i wonder what Eastern Weather authority will say now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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