NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The dryslot looks quite pronounced until you're almost to the Delaware River. I'd say 2-4" is a possibility but no more unless you're near the NY State border or well east. PA notoriously does poorly in these transfer of energy/dryslot type scenarios. How are you thinking for us here in the northeast jm? Models keep varying for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 2 to 4 is a safe call maybe even a bit high! 1 to 3 will be common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NWS saying pittsburgh gets 3-5 I don't buy that at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For my area, per Earl Barker's page, the NAM shows, as of 18z, a 6-8 inch snowfall, and the GFS a 4-5 inch snowfall. So as of now per the models 4-8 is the range, at least for eastern Schuylkill County. Not bad, all things considered. With a few more model runs to go we'll see if they go up or down, or stay the same. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The dryslot looks quite pronounced until you're almost to the Delaware River. I'd say 2-4" is a possibility but no more unless you're near the NY State border or well east. PA notoriously does poorly in these transfer of energy/dryslot type scenarios. Hard to dispute that. I'm all to aware of the dreaded dryslot with Miler B's here in the LSV, and most models surely depict that happening here, but the slightest sharpening of the trough here will make appreciable differences in what we get as the secondary looks to transfer below off the Carolinas. That said, the pattern has always been a progressive one and while "tempted to believe" yesterdays Euro, I knew that the pattern didnt fit that run. I still think we can eek out a 3-5 in many central pa locals if what I stated earlier happens. If not, then 1-3 is a safe call w/ the 1" down my way and the 3" in IPT. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In DC for the evening for New Years festivities. Left Bellwood in a near whiteout and 25 degrees. Got to DC late this afternoon and it was full fledge spring fling down here with bright sunshine and mid 40s. I'll be back to regular posting later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a fun forecast to see. Thursday Night Snow likely. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Much colder with lows around 5 above. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a fun forecast to see. Thursday Night Snow likely. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Much colder with lows around 5 above. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Is that for Harrisburg? If so...that sounds impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Harrisburg, yup. Newark NJ is is already in a WSW. Boston is going to get hammered rightly, I want to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In DC for the evening for New Years festivities. Left Bellwood in a near whiteout and 25 degrees. Got to DC late this afternoon and it was full fledge spring fling down here with bright sunshine and mid 40s. I'll be back to regular posting later tomorrow. DC rarely gets a true winter anymore it seems. I live in York County and commute to Gaithersburg, MD. Going from 25 and snow to 39 and rain seems like the new thing down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here comes the NAM's QPF bomb. .75+ widespread. .50+ reaching back into UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LOL we're in .75 plus on NAM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Win or lose i'll booze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Win or lose i'll booze Sauss you're the man haha!! I'm already 8 Miller Lites in myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the 00z run is white like this, I'm sure a lot of people will be waking up to some kind of watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sauss you're the man haha!! I'm already 8 Miller Lites in myself. Oh boy thats a snack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM has .3-.4 QPF falling here with temps in the single digits 1-4am Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh man if only there was better blocking...this would have made everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 watches are up in New York... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Surface 0 line gets down to Philly as well...lol this run is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh boy thats a snack! Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here comes the NAM's QPF bomb. .75+ widespread. .50+ reaching back into UNV. It's the 0z, so it has to be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 25 minutes until the GFS shows widespread nothingness lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 25 minutes until the GFS shows widespread nothingness lol. If the GFS / EURO come in big...it'll be funny to watch this board light up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the GFS / EURO come in big...it'll be funny to watch this board light up. New year fireworks from the AmWx server! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM has .3-.4 QPF falling here with temps in the single digits 1-4am Friday It's going to be a fun storm I think. As the trough swings in, even the places that are initially dryslotted should grab a few quick inches. I saw your question earlier just now-NE PA is going to be a tough spot because you'll have to see where the coastal driven precip kicks in later on. If that happens you can get 6"+. If not, 2-4 like everybody else in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM was a fluke. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS is bone dry for *everyone*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS says what storm? Even for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well, we can always hope for a GFS/NAM compromise which would be pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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