Yorkpa25 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Let's not model hug, still time for change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not jumping ship.this seems to happen a lot things go to hell 3 days out only to recover somewhat. Most of our storm systems prior to this one have over performed for the most part. Stay optimistic Atleast for 12z runs . But 2-4 3-5 looks okay for southern pa a bit more in central/northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sauss that Facebook post is ridiculous. To go from nothing to a blizzard in one run, one would have to consider something is off. There was 0 consistency at that point just a single model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Let's not model hug, still time for change Nobody's model hugging, I just pointed out what the 6z American suite was showing. The thing is, every model, including the Euro, has backed off from the big totals shown yesterday. Whether it's a glitch or a real trend is yet to be known, but it's worth talking about. After all, that's what these forums are about, aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well, no matter how much snow we get, look at those temps. Saturday is definitly going to be Vodka cold. Some areas will go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 1 model with 1 amplified solution does not a blizzard make. Really sick of these "professionals" hyping things to mass hysteria. It does nothing but cause problems. No wonder people think the world is ending when we get 3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hey voyager I did not refer to you in my post specifically. I was just saying it to keep things in perspective. Mainly referring to sauss's post about EWA. Yeah they made a dumb early prediction off one model run. All I'm saying is things can change and will change. Good or bad it is what it is. Atleast there is something on the horizon after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hey voyager I did not refer to you in my post specifically. I was just saying it to keep things in perspective. Mainly referring to sauss's post about EWA. Yeah they made a dumb early prediction off one model run. All I'm saying is things can change and will change. Good or bad it is what it is. Atleast there is something on the horizon after this I know you didn't and I should have worded my post a little differently. I was just using myself as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 CTP disco: THE ZONE IN BETWEEN THE LARGER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND THE OLDBOUNDARY PRECIP WILL LEAD TO A DONUT HOLE IN THE PRECIP OVER THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES AND PERHAPS SERN PA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEAREA LOOKS TO PICK UP 2-4 INCHES - AND MANY PLACES ACROSS THENORTH SHOULD EXCEED 6 INCHES - BUT IT WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER 30TO 40 HOURS. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MORE THAN JUST A MENTIONIN THE HWO AS WE HAVE HAD IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORMSHOULD BE DEEPENING RAPIDLY AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OUR LONGITUDEAND THE SFC LOW HEADS VERY EASTERLY AND OUT TO THE SHIPPING LANESOF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY/NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 A nice steady snow here right now with a few tenths on the ground...looks nice. My thoughts on the first storm: Most of us see 2-5" Some areas, likely north of I-80, see 5-7" Someone gets a rock, 0.5-2"...most likely area for this looks like maybe some SC or SE counties Bitter cold Friday and Saturday mornings...traditional cold valleys might crack -10 or -15 if it's calm and clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Currently light snow-my paved drive is white. Looks like a pretty active pattern coming up. As far the models.....who would expect them to be in agreement with a solution? That would be way too easy :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We're closing in on an inch of surprise snow this am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I thiiiiiiiiink the coldest temp MDT's had since we moved here in 2006 was 4 degrees. I want to beat that overnight Friday/Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK SEEM VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WHILE SOME SOLUTIONS HAD MILD TEMPS AHEAD OF A WET STORM FOR MONDAY...THE NEW SOLUTIONS HAVE GONE THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. GIANT SPREADS IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS MIGHT AS WELL HAVE US BRING OUT THE DARTS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE IN THE LATE EXTENDED TO KEEP FROM CHASING AFTER ONE SOLUTION OR ANOTHER. At least they are keeping a sense of humor!! http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That Facebook group is sticking with the same graphic it used last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That Facebook group is sticking with the same graphic it used last night. Sad. Even more sad is that EPAWA isn't a few kids right out of college. The owner/chief forecaster graduated in 2001. I'm tempted to call them out but I don't feel like getting into an internet pissing match at the moment. Besides, I'm just some moron without a met degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 CTP disco: Why is it that the SE counties always get the donut hole. JK Having lived in Lancaster County over the last 20 years we have had our fair share of hits/almosts and misses. I always expect the least and if more falls - bonus time. Perhaps we can get more, but being I see grass outside, some snow is better than no snow and hopefully for the storm next week we can get that to become a much colder storm for all of us especially for us on the SE side of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is a nightmare. <0.25 for all unless you're in the northern tier. Looks more like a glorified cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Guys if you are expecting more than 1 to 4 from this you will be disappointed. The Euro took its turn to troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And while I have a moment am I the only one who hates vodka cold ?? Sorry 10 degrees for a high just doesn't excite me watching the oil burn and having it hurt to go outside lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah, the NAM shows donut hole over state college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 flurries now in Harrisburg, 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And while I have a moment am I the only one who hates vodka cold ?? Sorry 10 degrees for a high just doesn't excite me watching the oil burn and having it hurt to go outside lol. Only when there is a nice snowpack with that vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And while I have a moment am I the only one who hates vodka cold ?? Sorry 10 degrees for a high just doesn't excite me watching the oil burn and having it hurt to go outside lol. If it must then below -10 or GTFO. That way I can go out and blow frozen soap bubbles like I did several years ago when we got to -18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If it must then below -10 or GTFO. That way I can go out and blow frozen soap bubbles like I did several years ago when we got to -18. That's awesome. If we do end up getting that cold, I will try it with kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If you live north of Scranton still looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If you live north of Scranton still looks decent Lol that may be 1 to 2 of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol that may be 1 to 2 of us. what about SW PA.....1/2"?.....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And while I have a moment am I the only one who hates vodka cold ?? Sorry 10 degrees for a high just doesn't excite me watching the oil burn and having it hurt to go outside lol. No you are not the only one. I hate it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If it must then below -10 or GTFO. That way I can go out and blow frozen soap bubbles like I did several years ago when we got to -18. That's awesome. If we do end up getting that cold, I will try it with kids. I guess you can get them at higher temps: http://www.boredpanda.com/frozen-bubbles-winter-photography-angela-kelly/ Here's another link about it: http://www.sciencetech.technomuses.ca/english/schoolzone/try-this-out-frozen-bubbles.cfm It was really cool to watch them freeze in mid-air. Many break, but that's cool too, the icy membranes float to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.