Voyager Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Precip is "outa here". 0.92" for the storm...not one flake of snow. All rain, wall to wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hey, most of us down here are pretty rational. Don't lump us in with yorkpa. Nah, just in general it would suck. We ended up with 1.08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We ended up with 0.91" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm on the Jan 6 train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So glad we moved yesterday...went from sunny and near 50 in York to rain and low 40s in 24 hours. Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm on the Jan 6 train How about a 1/6/96 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 How about a 1/6/96 redux? Why not. Let's go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No one in the know has commented on the Euro runs from 12/29, and the next 0z run for 12/30. I've had to resort to visiting the Philly forum to find any discussion about models, etc. Doesn't anybody here want to talk about models even if there isn't a huge storm to track in the next few days? MAG, where are you???? Also, what has happened to Eastern? Zak has vanished once again. He hasn't even updated his own website in over 2 weeks. Hope he's okay. BTW, I recorded 0.82" of rainfall on Sunday. It washed all the salt off of my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Big changes on 00z euro!! A real nice snowfall for alot of us. Central and Northern Pa big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Unless something happens by 0z tonight I think we're going to have to call it quits on the 1/2-3 threat. HELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO EUROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 guess where I live. Looks like the low is gonna screw us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The euro is crazy cold next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow the 0z euro run tonight is one of the more wintry runs i've ever seen that particular model crank out for our neck of the woods. It certainly puts a good 6z GFS glacier run to shame. We start with bomb of a east coast storm for the Jan 3rd storm followed by another bomb Jan 6th. Wall to wall cold the whole run and less than -30C (!!!!) 850 temps in most of PA after the second coastal storm. 2m temps 12z on Jan 8th (hr 228) are -15F over a majority of PA with all of western PA less than -20F. I know Jan '94 has been a popular buzz word lately and if that cold solution were to verify it would easily challenge the historic Jan '94 cold outbreak. Not hyping.. just stating what the model has. GFS and Canadian in that timeframe not nearly as cold. Can't really get too hung up on details beyond later this week attm given the time range obviously. However, we're in pretty good range to talk general specifics of the Jan 3rd storm with somewhat reasonable confidence. The European after not being too impressive for us at 12z is back to being easily the deepest solution of the 0z suite taking the low to sub 980 off the Jersey Coast and on below 970 over Cape Cod. GFS and Canadian much weaker with this system but I see a similarity between all of them. I've noticed now and the last couple runs that the 850 low tracks over or a bit above PA, either suggesting the best swath of snow could reside further north in PA or above PA. The Euro's hyped up solution also tracks the strong 850 low right thru PA and brings mixing issues to SW PA and the lower Sus Valley. MDT and LNS start as a mix and go to snow. Euro QPF amounts are generally 0.75-1.0" in central PA and about an inch or so in eastern Penn. Pretty significant shot of cold should be following behind whatever ends up of our Thurs/Fri system. Brief shot of -20C 850mb temps into PA indicative of a day or two of potential single digits and below zero readings for lows and teens/20s for highs. Could be colder than that if we end up with a decent snow pack and calmer conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No one in the know has commented on the Euro runs from 12/29, and the next 0z run for 12/30. I've had to resort to visiting the Philly forum to find any discussion about models, etc. Doesn't anybody here want to talk about models even if there isn't a huge storm to track in the next few days? MAG, where are you???? Also, what has happened to Eastern? Zak has vanished once again. He hasn't even updated his own website in over 2 weeks. Hope he's okay. BTW, I recorded 0.82" of rainfall on Sunday. It washed all the salt off of my car. My sister said she recorded .85" she lives 2 doors down from me. I was shocked this am, i still have some snow left in my front yard, it remained from the bigger piles from when i shoveled on Thursday. Looks like we have a couple potentials for snow with vodka cold afterwards..... edit- after looking again, it'll be cold, maybe not Vodka cold...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hello January 1994! What a great discussion by MAG. Thank you!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What a tease, der Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 anyone else take notice to temp drops? It was 45 when i came to work at 6, its now 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Light snow in Bellefonte now. Coating on the parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hello January 1994! What a great discussion by MAG. Thank you!!!! Trying to remember a greater showdown between Euro and GFS than this one. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z NAM went back to the crap solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z NAM went back to the crap solution. Precip wise but definitely has a deep trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z NAM went back to the crap solution. Precip wise but definitely has a deep trough. The PhillyWx mets seem to discount it. The Euro ens and UKMET/JMA support the Euro according to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The PhillyWx mets seem to discount it. The Euro ens and UKMET/JMA support the Euro according to them. Expect a decent amount of variability both between different models and subsequent model runs over the next few days until the shortwave that will be over the pacific northwest gets better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 anyone else take notice to temp drops? It was 45 when i came to work at 6, its now 41. Yessir, I was surprised at how warm it was earlier. I'm down to 37.7 now and falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The PhillyWx mets seem to discount it. The Euro ens and UKMET/JMA support the Euro according to them. If anything, the 00z UKMET looked slightly more amplified than the Euro by hr 72. EDIT: 12z GFS definitely coming in more amplified (by 00z Thu) than the previous runs. Not quite as amplified as the Euro/UKMET, but I am guessing we'll see somewhat of an improvement this run. Hopefully we can keep that trend up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yessir, I was surprised at how warm it was earlier. I'm down to 37.7 now and falling... yep, i'm now at 37 as well. -8 degrees in a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Big swing in the weather pattern will yield run-to-run differences in the model guidance. The EURO shows a big hit north of the turnpike, but it would not surprise me if the north trends makes this a Route 22 and points north thread in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Laughable changes in the 12z GFS. Flat out laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Expect a decent amount of variability both between different models and subsequent model runs over the next few days until the shortwave that will be over the pacific northwest gets better sampled. This is nothing new to winter storms in our area. For the life of me I can't understand why people freak out when a model shows a bad solution. Until we get inside 48 hours we will likely continue to see differing solutions on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Heavier stuff is a bit further east than the ECM. Still probably a solid 4-8" event verbatim given ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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