sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 UNV: .24 MDT: .21 IPT: .33 (you actually aren't that much drier) thats 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There is no model that ran today that matches the operational surface map with the surface. We are still going aggressive and stay aggressive and we will stay that way until further notice. There will be no change from us despite the models at the surface indicating it won't be a big storm. This is the difference between meteorology and modelology. We are able to determine what is going on in the big picture that most can't see because they're looking at a surface map that is not accurately reflecting what should be happening. Looking at the upper air pattern of every model today, this should be bigger then shown on the snow maps and an area of low pressure much closer to the coast. From EPWPA at about 1:20 today. The Euro looked much like last night as far as total snowfall and very similar to the GFS. But again, if the upper air pattern matched the surface it would be a much different story. For those of you so inclined, read up on the Boxing Day blizzard. That is a storm that everyone was supposed to get an inch when all the models were wrong 24 hours before and the same thing happened where the upper air patterns were different than the surface maps and all the sudden, BOOM. Lots of time... there were huge improvements today on all of the models in the upper air pattern. In meteorology, that is all that matters. at about 1:30 pm There will be no second call map released today we will be releasing a final call on Wednesday evening. The first call map stands as called. For those of you that are going on and on about hype lectures and the use of wording that we chose, it is all waste of your time. You can think all you want but a first call is just that, a first call. The final call will have exact amounts and our final call map is still supported. I love how people are just dismissing this storm like it's nothing when they have no idea about how to read a 500mb map. a few minutes later. Maybe they are seeing (hoping) something that everyone else isn't seeing. I don't know, I am not a met. I am just a player in a rock and roll band..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 From EPWPA at about 1:20 today. at about 1:30 pm a few minutes later. Maybe they are seeing (hoping) something that everyone else isn't seeing. I don't know, I am not a met. I am just a player in a rock and roll band..... They're basically saying "The models don't match, f it. GO DEEP!" How nice of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 They're basically saying "The models don't match, f it. GO DEEP!" ...and then throwing a "Hail Mary" pass that they hope doesn't get intercepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ...and then throwing a "Hail Mary" pass that they hope doesn't get intercepted. But what if the band is on the field...it worked once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 But what if the band is on the field...it worked once. i guess if Rudy can make the team, we can all squeek out 12-15" out of this M-FER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I will say that when a trough with a vigorous vort max that swings that far south into the continent, it will spin up a storm somewhere where a natural baroclinic zone sets up. At this stage of the winter, a surface storm SHOULD form nearer the coast than the globals are depicting. I've seen this many times over my life...not so much that the modeling is off, ( I am sure that the theoretical solutions of the atmosphere are accurately being calculated), but the storm develops in the vicinity of the natural baroclinic region that exists between the cold land mass and the relatively FAR warmer ocean. If the arctic air becomes involved in any way, a "surprise" snowfall will occur somewhere in the northern Mid Atlantic...in spite of the regional and global modeling. I am impressed with the physics of the modelers and how the computers often solve the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere; it's just that the numerical solutions are not what always occur when extremes become involved. Just sayin'... By the way, Happy New Year y'all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0.7" in Bellefonte. Barring any more surprises today, December will finish with 14.8". Beats last December, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 thats 2-3" Spread out over a day and a half, so it shouldn't cause any travel issues. Which is a-OK with me if we aren't getting a major plowable storm. Happy New Year, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM just 180'd! EDIT: Winners on this run are more eastern half - like canderson, Voyager, and myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm being tarred and feathered on fascbuch for weenie bashing. This better not bite me in my anus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM just 180'd! EDIT: Winners on this run are more eastern half - like canderson, Voyager, and myself. Harrisburg? I'm being tarred and feathered on fascbuch for weenie bashing. This better not bite me in my anus... What sight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 True Central still in a precip hole but it's trending wayy better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 MDT looks like a little over .25 QPF. Western half still struggles though. Voyager and I are seeing the .5 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That hole is Ugly for central PA. I'm going to the shore for this one. It is trendin better, but if that nam verified many would be on weenie suicide watch for a few hours while it's snowing everywhere but central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .23 for me, small improvemnet from the .21 earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Keep in mind!! NAM had us at 0 precip just one run ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That hole is Ugly for central PA. I'm going to the shore for this one. It is trendin better, but if that nam verified many would be on weenie suicide watch for a few hours while it's snowing everywhere but central pa. I just watched TWC's video ( ) on the storm and the models on their web page, and the graphics they used for the Euro and the GFS both show the same donut hole over PA for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 IF we can sneak out .4 or .5 out of this thing there is no doubt it would be warning snows! Roads will be a mess too with highs in the low 20s plunging Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM just 180'd! EDIT: Winners on this run are more eastern half - like canderson, Voyager, and myself. MDT looks like a little over .25 QPF. Western half still struggles though. Voyager and I are seeing the .5 line. Quite a difference from the 12z run which basically hosed us and gave about 0.05" qpf for the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Quite a difference from the 12z run which basically hosed us and gave about 0.05" qpf for the whole event. Although I'm not a red tagger, I've followed this stuff for long enough to know that the models typically do this...and I really think that as some/many have suggested, the maps arent really showing how the evolution/dynamics should play out. I think the 0z and tomorrows 12z runs show the trough sharpen a little and a slightly less sheared/southern slider with more appreciable qpf extending back NW before the final run tomorrow night showing a slight correction back SE. Seen this too many times and I think this time may prove to be no different. Happy New Years day to all my Central Pa weather peeps! Fun crew to hang with. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What's the verdict on the Goofus? Can't see maps on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Goofus is .25 or less for everyone reading. Starting to zero in on a 1 to 3 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What's the verdict on the Goofus? Can't see maps on my phone. Upper-air improvement but it didn't translate to the surface. Drier than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Goofus is .25 or less for everyone reading. Starting to zero in on a 1 to 3 event. ??? You need to check out CTP as they are usually gun shy and save my area in the LSV, they are thinking 2-4 across much of central Pa with 6" into N and NE Pa. You need a New Years resolution to turn that posting frown upsideown. No models depict 1-3 in your area. You've been in a far better spot than most in the forum for this one. Not picking on you, but tell it like it is....not as your inner voice tells you to type as you dont want to be let down. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Although I'm not a red tagger, I've followed this stuff for long enough to know that the models typically do this...and I really think that as some/many have suggested, the maps arent really showing how the evolution/dynamics should play out. I think the 0z and tomorrows 12z runs show the trough sharpen a little and a slightly less sheared/southern slider with more appreciable qpf extending back NW before the final run tomorrow night showing a slight correction back SE. Seen this too many times and I think this time may prove to be no different. Happy New Years day to all my Central Pa weather peeps! Fun crew to hang with. Nut Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Goofus is .25 or less for everyone reading. Starting to zero in on a 1 to 3 event. ??? You need to check out CTP as they are usually gun shy and save my area in the LSV, they are thinking 2-4 across much of central Pa with 6" into N and NE Pa. You need a New Years resolution to turn that posting frown upsideown. No models depict 1-3 in your area. You've been in a far better spot than most in the forum for this one. Not picking on you, but tell it like it is....not as your inner voice tells you to type as you dont want to be let down. Nut He's just overcompensating for his weenie years. I prefer this version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I know we are still focused on the Thursday/Friday event but I am wondering what today's Euro shows for the potential monster storm for next Monday? GFS seems much less powerful. I'm wondering if the Euro is doing the same thing for that one as it was doing for our next one yesterday? There seems to be no question that behind whatever comes through early next week that we spend 24 hours sub -20C at 850. That should translate into highs no higher than the teens down here and single digits up north with lows Tuesday night Zero or below everywhere (in our CWA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ??? You need to check out CTP as they are usually gun shy and save my area in the LSV, they are thinking 2-4 across much of central Pa with 6" into N and NE Pa. You need a New Years resolution to turn that posting frown upsideown. No models depict 1-3 in your area. You've been in a far better spot than most in the forum for this one. Not picking on you, but tell it like it is....not as your inner voice tells you to type as you dont want to be let down. Nut The dryslot looks quite pronounced until you're almost to the Delaware River. I'd say 2-4" is a possibility but no more unless you're near the NY State border or well east. PA notoriously does poorly in these transfer of energy/dryslot type scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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