Rick G Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this storm has shown me that the models need some major work still. I work in IT. I teach IT at the undergrad level. I know that the models get revised every so often, it looks like that every model has it's own bias and they use a weighted average to make a prediction. Using Moore's law (technology doubles every 18 to 24 months as cost goes down) I do not see the accuracy getting better. Just think, with the drop in cost and increase in performance, we could have models that run continuously and that are far more accurate that what we have today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this storm has shown me that the models need some major work still. I work in IT. I teach IT at the undergrad level. I know that the models get revised every so often, it looks like that every model has it's own bias and they use a weighted average to make a prediction. Using Moore's law (technology doubles every 18 to 24 months as cost goes down) I do not see the accuracy getting better. Just think, with the drop in cost and increase in performance, we could have models that run continuously and that are far more accurate that what we have today. What about getting better initial data input too? The best mathemtics / resolution still will have flaws if accurate information is not input into the models. I do agree though that you think we might see upgrades come in faster, then again the latest upgrade to the Euro seems to have decreased quality of forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Garbage in garbage out. Our credo... I do not know thing one about how models are programmed. Obviously getting better data input is a key. I would have to think about how I would approach building a model. they should be able to run past results into a model and see where it breaks down. basically if you know what is supposed to happen, put in the data and tweak the code until you get the correct results. I know there are billions of data points that would need to be captured but it should be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If you want a good discussion on how models are programmed, data ingested, etc. go to the Mid Atlantic Forum. Good discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy 2014, C PA gang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bill O'Turncoat has left Penn State - 2014 can suck me already. lol tell us how you really feel... Happy New Year to All!!! may your new year be filled with interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Years CPA fellas even you boys north of Scranton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bill O'Turncoat has left Penn State - 2014 can suck me already. lol Sorry to pile on but GEFS backed up the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year friends! I suppose it's safe to say that one of either the NAM or the GFS is out to lunch. Let's what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 HBG might not reach 10 Friday ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year friends! I suppose it's safe to say that one of either the NAM or the GFS is out to lunch. Let's what the Euro shows. RGEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 HBG might not reach 10 Friday ... Forcasted high of 7 here for Friday. Hard to believe that the arctic blast is going to be interrupted by a cutter for Sunday/Monday. Monday high 38, low Tuesday of -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Holy cold lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 light snow falling here for the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The beloved SREF with drastic improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The beloved SREF with drastic improvement. just saw the same. .5 all the way back to Central Pa. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There are some absolute beauties in the individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There are some absolute beauties in the individuals. just seeing the 1.0 eeking west is surely a sight for sleepy eyes....but worth getting up for...so far. Nice to see many panels (but not all) not showing the donut hole. couple scary ones remain but the mean is a nice step. and agreed...a couple of them would bring us to our knees....in SNOW. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone want a run if real winter? Here we go! (From CTP btw) Thursday Cloudy. Snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Thursday Night Snow...mainly in the evening. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Blustery and much colder with lows around 10 above. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 90 percent. Friday Mostly sunny and blustery. Much colder with highs around 15. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear. Lows 5 to 10 above. ... Monday Night Partly cloudy. Much colder with lows around zero. Tuesday Sunny. Much colder with highs 10 to 15. Wind chill values as low as 15 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good trends overnight...liking the chances for a 3-6/4-8 event at this point. EDIT: BGM issued a WS Watch for NEPA zones, says 6-9 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There are some absolute beauties in the individuals. Good trends overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good trends overnight...liking the chances for a 3-6/4-8 event at this point. EDIT: BGM issued a WSW for NEPA zones, says 6-9 possible. i started to post before I saw your edit. I think your first line is possible in state college based on srefs. if your in hazleton, i think the second line is all but a lock. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 while I can see the panels...over in NY forum they are saying H5 and H7 look great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 while I can see the panels...over in NY forum they are saying H5 and H7 look great.... Didn't translate to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM finally comes to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Still not bad down our way, 0.5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Didn't translate to the surface. yep...bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Still not bad down our way, 0.5"+ agreed. beats eating dOnuts... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM cut precip up here from .75+ to .25+...why is every time I get excited and make a post about it, models immediately cut back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone want a run if real winter? Here we go! (From CTP btw) Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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