40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 of course , until you see inside 120 with the Euro Op, ENS, GFS ENS on board its pure fantasy, but a helluva fantasy, GFS has me at 10-12+ LOL The premature ejac. gods of October snow owe me one from 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The premature ejac. gods of October snow owe me one from 2011. LOL but you got payback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 LOL but you got payback When? October of 2012 saw a hurricane that took the 1/200 year left hook necessary to deal a relatively anticlimatic blow to ne MA....and it was all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Snowstorm Pure fantasy range, but awesome too see the chance of some early season snowfall around here. Winters have got started late recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 -15 850s with 100% 700 RhPut powderfreak down with a forecast for a dusting to 2.i would like to see him go for it with his upslope forecasts. I say this soley because he is OUTSTANDING w his knowledge of upslope and where and who will get it, the froude numbers now given help alot wrt west/slope east slope but i mean he was one of the first to realize in last years very late season adirondack crusher snowstorm that the set up wasnt right for n greens upslope w closed low to far south. Until then if you add 30% to his forecasts u will be closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Alright, who ran the 18z GFS out of their basement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Is DT's winter outlook out? His preliminary outlook was supposed to be out on November 2nd but I believe he said he had a death in the family, he is going to release it on the 9th. He will also do a final winter outlook update at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Just crushes Phil That would destroy you, too. Full weenie fodder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 18z GFS is a blitzkrieg for Phil and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 18z GFS is a blitzkrieg for Phil and I.Snowstorm for taunton area as wellIf this occurred it would have a chance to erase the boring weather of the last few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Sorry guys...that was me . In all seriousness though, the models might be out in la la land but I'll take any excitement I can get at this point. I'll second that, hey maybe a dull pattern ends with a bang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Yeah well it makes a lot of sense. I'd think most locations from like 40 degrees lat and north would see some increase in snowfall with warming temperatures, but then once it hits that critical point you'd see a sharp drop off in snowfall as it gets warmer. Anyway, North America was only 20/46, middle of the road, in October cover this year, but I'd assume that doesn't matter as much as the northern hemisphere as a whole? Or does it just mean Eurasia is packed with snow? Yeah, for us the correlation is best for Siberia, actually. But everywhere in the NH has it's own source-region to be concerned with. Europe is actually Eurasia -- a lot of their cold comes on NNE/NE blocking patterns where it spills the Urals and also comes down from NE of Scandinavia. The whole of the hemisphere says more about the "nature", or character of the system as opposed to just focusing on one area of anomaly, though - tru. In physics, when we want to determine the character of a field we often derive what are called Eigen variables. The way it works is you lay all you data out on a grid, and then take the orthogonal values, and create a polynomial expression; once you do that, you can solve the expression quadratically to determine the roots. That's how teleconnectors are calculated. The more data the more robust will be the derivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Alright, who ran the 18z GFS out of their basement? Wow, look what's definitely going to happen !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Thats a helluva snowstorm on the 18Z GFS Stalls and does a loop too. The bulls eye's a tad SE but I'm sure that would be 40" of insanity if it were to back that stationary comma head onto land. Can you imagine getting half a season'a annum in one storm, in Novie ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I don't care if we get snow or not. I just want something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I don't care if we get snow or not. I just want something interesting. . I always thought november was a prime month to blow away a snowfall record since we seem to have been in a anomalous wx regime last several years. I would think if snowfall records went back another 200 years there would be 2-3 KU's from mid novie onward. We look like we will have the cold, now lets get the Euro And its " crazy day ten solution" to re-appear with a day 8 bomb tonite, its not as far fetched as we think, given the cold seems to be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GFS starting to sense that the PNA ridge reappears as troughing settles in to the southwest of Seattle, WA. Pattern classic for a snowstorm, its just a transient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 That would destroy you, too. Full weenie fodder. Untitled.jpg Wow--fun times for Phil on that. If this were two or three days before the event, I'd be heading to the French King Bridge. Winter's in the air, folks. Well--maybe not tonight's air. 50.8/43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pacific Ocean is looking a lot better pattern wise for this storm's period on the GFS. Of course with the Pacific looking as good as it does it leads to the GFS seeing a storm. Why is the Pacific better? It's simply more ridging over the Rockies leading to a deep longwave trough digging into the Mid Atlantic states allowing the shortwave to close off at H5. The H7 low therefore cuts through the Mid Atlantic states and off the coast allowing banding to form to the northwest of the H7 low. However the low cuts off too late to dump the main band on the coastline east of I95. We need to watch the H5 setup and the subtle degrees of differences in further model runs. Future runs will likely back away from such a good Pacific Ocean setup until we get closer to the timeframe in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Jim Roemer forecast were the best, Hype and I'm at Mt Snow.We subscribed to his Ski forecast to get a bunch of discounted lift tickets, Everytime there was lake - effect from Ontario he would say 3-6 for Mt Snow since it would funnel thru Mohawk valley past Albany then Upslope against the the southern Greens. Not always the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 . I always thought november was a prime month to blow away a snowfall record since we seem to have been in a anomalous wx regime last several years. I would think if snowfall records went back another 200 years there would be 2-3 KU's from mid novie onward. We look like we will have the cold, now lets get the Euro And its " crazy day ten solution" to re-appear with a day 8 bomb tonite, its not as far fetched as we think, given the cold seems to be in place.I think the record November snowfalls are pretty low. I seem to recall Will posting something like that pretty much each year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I like the fact that we will have a semi-arctic airmass for this time of year sitting next to some very warm Atlantic waters... the baroclinic gradient has to be pretty tight along the coast as these cold surges come SE out of southern Canada. Would definitely add to any type of system that got near the coast... just need to get the timing right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Jim Roemer forecast were the best, Hype and I'm at Mt Snow.We subscribed to his Ski forecast to get a bunch of discounted lift tickets, Everytime there was lake - effect from Ontario he would say 3-6 for Mt Snow since it would funnel thru Mohawk valley past Albany then Upslope against the the southern Greens. Not always the case lol yep, that's him. Take reality and double it, and that's usually his forecast...sometimes he came out a hero, but most of the time just wrong. People like to remember the hero calls though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I've seen both assertions and pretty sure rate of change matters. In fact I know in house we thought the best correlation was gains in week 2 and 3. Obviously big snow cover helps, but just saying. Yes, the rate of change definitely has the highest correlation versus just overall extent. We did very well in overall extent for Eurasion snow cover this October...it was 4th highest....but the rate of change was pretty subdued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Thanks, Ron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Ray is locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Weird setup tomorrow... we make get whiffed pretty good as a weak offshore low tries to take over. All the models seem to screw SNE and keep the best stuff offshore as the front moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I like the fact that we will have a semi-arctic airmass for this time of year sitting next to some very warm Atlantic waters... the baroclinic gradient has to be pretty tight along the coast as these cold surges come SE out of southern Canada. Would definitely add to any type of system that got near the coast... just need to get the timing right.Always fun to have such a contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Weird setup tomorrow... we make get whiffed pretty good as a weak offshore low tries to take over. All the models seem to screw SNE and keep the best stuff offshore as the front moved through. This area is so dry it's not even funny. Actual streams are literally drying up in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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