CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The siting is not the issue wrt the +1.0 It's probably a product of no precip and nights where radiational cooling is not their strong suit. Just how it is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 It's probably a product of no precip and nights where radiational cooling is not their strong suit. Just how it is I guess. Yeah but everyone else has had no precip and ORh certainly doesn't radiate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Its not a big deal for anyone. However the first accumulating snowfall of the season always brings some excitement. Maybe your daughter will be able to sled tomorrow I think I'm in a great position to see flakes and a bad one to see anything accumulate out of it other than a trace. The mastiff is probably better given the relative south/east location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah but everyone else has had no precip and ORh certainly doesn't radiate True, but an ASOS downwind from downtown BOS and off a runway certainly exacerbates it. That's my guess. They just don't cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I think I'm in a great position to see flakes and a bad one to see anything accumulate out of it other than a trace. The mastiff is probably better given the relative south/east location. I don't see any real difference between where you are and further east in the interior in terms of snowfall potential. This isn't some coastal system with big inflow...its a post frontal weak wave and the qpf distribution is not packed into some tight gradient. The only potential for anything a bit non-linear in this is perhaps a little jolt right as it tries to exit stage right for SE areas, but we're splitting hairs here...they'll also "waste" more QPF on rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 It's probably a product of no precip and nights where radiational cooling is not their strong suit. Just how it is I guess.Living down close to that asos, its not shocking to see it at +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I could see a s coast surprise where pretty much nobody is talking about. They may even see some minor acc and most have rain. agree with this. lol. could actually be a couple of hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I've never seen the ensembles flip do much before back and forth in the 11-15 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I've never seen the ensembles flip do much before back and forth in the 11-15 day I don't think they have flipped. Every day we talk about the 11-15 day is another day farther out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I don't think they have flipped. Every day we talk about the 11-15 day is another day farther out in time.Yeah but just looking at the H5 pattern from run to run there's just no consistency. You think that has to do with mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I could see a s coast surprise where pretty much nobody is talking about. They may even see some minor acc and most have rain. I've been optimistic for a few days, these are my favorite early season type systems for down here. There's likely to be an area just back from the coast that gets a good burst of snow for an hour/few hours. Such a tightrope I won't have any confidence until later today that it'll come to pass. I'm a little concerned the best precip/dynamics may fall just south or SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I could see a s coast surprise where pretty much nobody is talking about. They may even see some minor acc and most have rain. Yeah that wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Decent snow growth tomorrow morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Decent snow growth tomorrow morning as well. Yup. Here's the sounding for Brockton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Some high ratios will help enhance snow totals despite meager moisture I still doubt anyone gets over 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 I don't see any real difference between where you are and further east in the interior in terms of snowfall potential. This isn't some coastal system with big inflow...its a post frontal weak wave and the qpf distribution is not packed into some tight gradient. The only potential for anything a bit non-linear in this is perhaps a little jolt right as it tries to exit stage right for SE areas, but we're splitting hairs here...they'll also "waste" more QPF on rain. I guess I'm seeing the potential bump in the SE in the wrong light then. I hope I can report flakes this evening--that would be an encouraging sign for folks downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I guess I'm seeing the potential bump in the SE in the wrong light then. I hope I can report flakes this evening--that would be an encouraging sign for folks downstream. It's the lowest levels that are the warmest with this and if we can get precip to come down hard enough, it should cool that down to allow snow. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I guess I'm seeing the potential bump in the SE in the wrong light then. I hope I can report flakes this evening--that would be an encouraging sign for folks downstream. You'll have some, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Hell, even the 09z SREFs spit out some ok probs on 1" of snow. See some 25% probs in E CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I can't quote Will because IE 11 doesn't quote on amwx, but I agree. For us down here it's that little spike at the end, whether it occurs in time and it's cold enough. I am hoping for Blizz's mood flakes anything more than that is icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I can't quote Will because IE 11 doesn't quote on amwx, but I agree. For us down here it's that little spike at the end, whether it occurs in time and it's cold enough. I am hoping for Blizz's mood flakes anything more than that is icing on the cake. I think everyone will at least see flakes...I'd be surprised if they didn't. It cools off very fast and snow growth looks solid, so this will probably be the type of situation where once the sfc gets down to like 36F, it will be snow. Not one of those setups where you have to wait until 32-33F. As for accumulations, obviously that is tougher. I think many have a good shot as a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I'm confident flakes will be seen. First flakes are always welcomed although driving to a meeting Friday afternoon there were some catpaws during a brief shower. It's like breaking the ice on the season, First you have an official freeze which occurred for BOS 11/4. Thereafter, freezes come more easily and sure enough unexpectedly 11/5 and certainly this week. Then you have snow..... I think its similar in summer after the first 80 degree day and then they are easier to come by. Breaking the ice as we step down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I'm confident flakes will be seen. First flakes are always welcomed although driving to a meeting Friday afternoon there were some catpaws during a brief shower. It's like breaking the ice on the season, First you have an official freeze which occurred for BOS 11/4. Thereafter, freezes come more easily and sure enough unexpectedly 11/5 and certainly this week. Then you have snow..... I think its similar in summer after the first 80 degree day and then they are easier to come by. Breaking the ice as we step down. Agree about flakes. May have the old spot light on at 5am tomorrow..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Some really warm water just below the surface of the tropical Pacific. At the least the stronger easterlies weakened a bit and we'll have to see how the circulation recovers post Haiyan. Kind of late in the season to ask for an impact, but less cold water could help with MJO propagation towards the dateline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Looking forward to a little ground whitening, hopefully someone gets more than that. The only excitement we have in an otherwise boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Agree about flakes. May have the old spot light on at 5am tomorrow..lol. ZFP out here is calling for precip to start in the evening with a rn/sn mix. Is the start time of precip much later out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 ZFP out here is calling for precip to start in the evening with a rn/sn mix. Is the start time of precip much later out there? Prob not until after midnight in eastern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Someone want to start a thread on tonight's mini event? Probably best to lock this one and start a arctic front thread and a medium range discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Someone want to start a thread on tonight's mini event? Probably best to lock this one and start a arctic front thread and a medium range discussion thread. I'll do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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