Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I was talking about the forecasts, but those forecasts for strat temps aren't all that accurate either. Also noting these temps cooling once we lost the typhoon recurves. I like the warming going on over the NAO. Yeah, I recall our speculating that the west Pac typhoon dump might be related to the warming. Have to see where this goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Just another good bolt right there at 450. And another. Just got more active good show to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Just another good bolt right there at 450. And another. Just got more active good show to the south There is some CAPE down that way so not a shock now that I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Lightning out of this complex moving over cape cod right nowBlizz nailed it. Well. Sort of. ErrrrInteresting sky this afternoon out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Today has that look on models of maybe some low topped convection in places..One of those deals where maybe a bolt or two of lightning and some small hail and gusty winds under a few cells..particluarly in Ri and E Ma DIT did ok on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Hey, I'll give it to him. Granted I never really looked until Messenger I mean CWEAT, I mean Winston Wolf posted about lightning..but nice conditions at ACK. 31026G36KT 10SM TSRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 The euro ensembles show an interesting late 11-15 day. It's got a short wavelength pattern in the Pacific...that is ridge moving into the Bering Sea, trough in AK and then another ridge just off the west coast of the US. Full latitude trough develops from Hudson bay to the Gulf of Mexico with the pipeline of cold ready to move into the Plains. We look to be on the edge here in new England, but looks more volatile during that time. We may see the cold move in if we were to extrapolate beyond hr 360. I asked Ryan but he never answered..When does the pattern turn wet or are we looking at another record dry month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I asked Ryan but he never answered..When does the pattern turn wet or are we looking at another record dry month? Well maybe towards the end of the month? It depends what happens to the low progged to go west of us in the 8-10 day timeframe. Does it go west of us with 0.2" of rain with fropa or does it stall nearby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Also temper your torches on end of week and weekend warmth. There's a pretty good inversion in place thru at least Saturday..so it might be one of those deals with light winds, low sun angle. and no mixing that the days stay in the 45-50 degree range and radiators get cold at night..while hilltops stay above 32. if i had to guess I'd say there's 1-2 days much above sometime next week ahead of that strong soueaster...and then strong arctic fropa day 10-11 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I will say ,, when I was banished to solitary confinement all the talk and worry was a brutal Nov torch. Then several cold shots popped up due to typhoons recurving and waves breaking. Then a small snow event with local inches or so appeared and the warm mid Nov turned into a day or 2 near 50. Maybe it's too early but it sure seems like things are really breaking our way in the face of what models / energy mets were saying. Usually things trend worse but so far things have trended better.Everyone was calling at or above normal with a possible torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Also temper your torches on end of week and weekend warmth. There's a pretty good inversion in place thru at least Saturday..so it might be one of those deals with light winds, low sun angle. and no mixing that the days stay in the 45-50 degree range and radiators get cold at night..while hilltops stay above 32. if i had to guess I'd say there's 1-2 days much above sometime next week ahead of that strong soueaster...and then strong arctic fropa day 10-11 or so I would agree about the end of week....true torch isn't progged until early next week. Boy Tuesday and Wed will be cold. 18z GFS a little more juiced predawn Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I would agree about the end of week....true torch isn't progged until early next week. Boy Tuesday and Wed will be cold. 18z GFS a little more juiced predawn Tuesday. Yup... could whiten the hilltowns. As for the "torch" yeah I think we warm slowly... but by next weekend things start getting mild. Could put up some double digit positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yup... could whiten the hilltowns. As for the "torch" yeah I think we warm slowly... but by next weekend things start getting mild. Could put up some double digit positive departures. Yeah maybe Sunday? Aside from this cold shot...boredom continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Seems like Euro ens in basic agreement with op on strong cold fropa around day 10 ending the 1-3 day mild up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Seems like Euro ens in basic agreement with op on strong cold fropa around day 10 ending the 1-3 day mild up Incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Incorrect.Based on the description given on the 11-15 day it sounded that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Based on the description given on the 11-15 day it sounded that way I said it wasn't really until the end of the 11-15 day where we might finally see some changes. However we all know the caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I said it wasn't really until the end of the 11-15 day where we might finally see some changes. However we all know the caveats. 12z Euro Ens keeps +EPO around too through D15. At least it pops a +PNA but it doesn't look overly cold by D15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 12z Euro Ens keeps +EPO around too through D15. At least it pops a +PNA but it doesn't look overly cold by D15. It had a nice trough diving into the Plains so hopefully that would swing east if you extrapolate it out. Dangerous thing to do..lol. With all the uncertainty, I'm still thinking maybe until near T day or after if we see any notable changes...but it doesn't mean a cool shot can't come before. I still think there is that light at the end of the tunnel you mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 It had a nice trough diving into the Plains so hopefully that would swing east if you extrapolate it out. Dangerous thing to do..lol. With all the uncertainty, I'm still thinking maybe until near T day or after if we see any notable changes...but it doesn't mean a cool shot can't come before. I still think there is that light at the end of the tunnel you mention. I don't like those big cold punches in the plains when we're lacking a lot of teleconnection support. Seems like more often that not those become transient. GEFS better... we'll see. I don't see anything that looks awful... but definitely not seeing a lot of cold for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Pattern change begins 11/25 and is locked by 12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I never put stock in 11-15 day Ens progs either way. I do think the phase change is coming into clearer view now. This is critical to timing for a significant winter event as we enter Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I never put stock in 11-15 day Ens progs either way. I do think the phase change is coming into clearer view now. This is critical to timing for a significant winter event as we enter Dec. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I don't like those big cold punches in the plains when we're lacking a lot of teleconnection support. Seems like more often that not those become transient. GEFS better... we'll see. I don't see anything that looks awful... but definitely not seeing a lot of cold for some time. It looked like the ball got set in motion from the ridge off the west coast. At the same time there was still ridging off the east coast so it would probably be a classic high plains cold spell and then maybe pushing east beyond that timeframe I suppose. My biggest question to me is how stable is that Pacific pattern? Seems like it will be at the mercy of tropical forcing in the WPAC which (suprise surprise) isn't exactly agreed upon all that well. FWIW Roundy's experimental products have some cold coming in here in the first week of December after being warm throughout the month. All things aside, I'm sticking with AN here this month anyways. If there is one positive thing to take away..I think it's that no models at the moment show a garbage Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Steve, it's not taking the progs verbatim...it's just looking at the overall 500mb look and surmising what might happen. There is value in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Kevin good call on the thunder, ACK has a TSRA report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Weatherfella I offer you no bets this year on your predictions. I like the very normal processes going on this fall. GFS at 18z as well as the 12z Euro are optimistic for at least the first trace/falling in many areas Tuesday. That'd be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I asked Ryan but he never answered..When does the pattern turn wet or are we looking at another record dry month? Wasn't last November the driest on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Wasn't last November the driest on record? We had some decent precip last Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Steve, it's not taking the progs verbatim...it's just looking at the overall 500mb look and surmising what might happen. There is value in that.not discounted but taken with a grain of salt if torch or Arctic outbreak, lots of moving pieces, what's happening N of Japan today one example of modeling from 11-15 days ago missing the 5H setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.