CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Besides the inch or so of snow Tuesday,, do we see any signs of a storm or rain thru the holiday? Doubt anyone sees an inch of snow Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 MJO seems to be struggling a bit. Looks like some convection favored in IO but models are all over the place... not very coherent with it. Yeah mixed signals although euro and ukie try to show some favorable forecasts and they are more skilled (which doesn't mean a heck of A lot in MJO forecasting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Both the Euro and GFS ensembles are in really good agreement through D15. Looks like cold shot Tue/Wed followed by an extended moderating trend. Not huge torch but probably an extended period AOA. Seems like the pattern becomes more favorable by Thanksgiving week but even if we flip a -NAO and get some blocking there won't be a ton of cold air over Canada to tap initially. Yep agree. Hoping December develops like the weeklies show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Doubt anyone sees an inch of snow Tuesday.the way things are trending it certainly appears hill towns have a good shot at an inch or two.That's not my question. When does it get wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I will say ,, when I was banished to solitary confinement all the talk and worry was a brutal Nov torch. Then several cold shots popped up due to typhoons recurving and waves breaking. Then a small snow event with local inches or so appeared and the warm mid Nov turned into a day or 2 near 50. Maybe it's too early but it sure seems like things are really breaking our way in the face of what models / energy mets were saying. Usually things trend worse but so far things have trended better. I agree, seemed as things were looking pretty unfavorable. Now everyday that passes the outlook seems more positive, hopefully we can get coating to an inch Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I agree, seemed as things were looking pretty unfavorable. Now everyday that passes the outlook seems more positive, hopefully we can get coating to an inch Tuesday morningnot every one was on the torch bandwagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 not every one was on the torch bandwagon Of course this is clouded once again. The period of the torch was always mid November. Yes it's true next week is cooler than first thought, but the strongest warm signal was always mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 not every one was on the torch bandwagon But everyone was on the bandwagon of a period of warmer weather. That still looks like a good bet, though we certainly may be closer to normal than I originally thought. There will certainly be some warmer days thrown in there, but we may luck out more than folks just southwest of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 not every one was on the torch bandwagon Agreed, hopefully we can get some sustained cold after thanksgiving, would be nice, Decembers recently haven't had all that cold it seems like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 But everyone was on the bandwagon of a period of warmer weather. That still looks like a good bet, though we certainly may be closer to normal than I originally thought. There will certainly be some warmer days thrown in there, but we may luck out more than folks just southwest of here. Yep cooler than originally thought, but I hope people aren't just going to assume every warmer period from here on out will be muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 But everyone was on the bandwagon of a period of warmer weather. That still looks like a good bet, though we certainly may be closer to normal than I originally thought. There will certainly be some warmer days thrown in there, but we may luck out more than folks just southwest of here. yep that's true, most agree on the mid month mild up but there were a bunch of posts calling for a November torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yep cooler than originally thought, but I hope people aren't just going to assume every warmer period from here on out will be muted.It's persistence for a while until the phase change occurs then it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm getting fairly confident of a positive AO winter...most signs point to that right now. However, that doesn't mean we still cannot have fun. 2007-2008, 1992-1993, 1983-1984, 1975-1976, and 1956-1957...and believe it or not 2004-2005 and 2008-2009 were slight +AO winters as defined by DJF...but 2005 had a big -AO in March if you include that month. Keep the big ugly vortex away from the EPO region, and we can still have our fun...esp with latitude. I would welcome another 2007-08 if we could lock that in right now, Latitude definitely has its advantages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I would welcome another 2007-08 if we could lock that in right now, Latitude definitely has its advantages Any flakes flying out your way? Radar looks like it might. I see IZG, BML, HIE all snowing now. Light snow here is only sticking to the car tops at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Steady light snow here in Gray, ME. 35/30. It's beautiful and been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Steady light snow here in Gray, ME. 35/30. It's beautiful and been awhile. Yes Mike, same here in the dirty lew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Steady light snow here in Gray, ME. 35/30. It's beautiful and been awhile. Jealous about that though. Can't wait to see some flakes in the air here... probably will have to wait a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Any flakes flying out your way? Radar looks like it might. I see IZG, BML, HIE all snowing now. Light snow here is only sticking to the car tops at this point. Yes, -SN Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Jealous about that though. Can't wait to see some flakes in the air here... probably will have to wait a while. it's accumulating on the deck but nowhere else. Not sure how long it lasts...not much room to wetbulb down. Had a low of 32 about 8 pm now its up to 35. Nice to see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Jealous about that though. Can't wait to see some flakes in the air here... probably will have to wait a while. Think we could get a coating Monday night/Tuesday AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Think we could get a coating Monday night/Tuesday AM? I think it's in the cards for your area. Wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Doesn't appear to be reflected much via QPF output but a few hours before dawn or so, the GFS has a spike in VV's along with decent RH values in the llvls...perhaps there could be a little blossom of precip across SW MA into northern CT (obviously dependent on where the stronger lift occurs) but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Cmc has a decent whitener for Tuesday am. It's going to be interesting to see if this works. My own recollection is the majority of November snows in the first half of the month come via the low probability anafrontal pathway along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Doesn't appear to be reflected much via QPF output but a few hours before dawn or so, the GFS has a spike in VV's along with decent RH values in the llvls...perhaps there could be a little blossom of precip across SW MA into northern CT (obviously dependent on where the stronger lift occurs) but something to keep an eye on. That boundary is going to get a jolt as it gets closer to the ocean/coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Cmc has a decent whitener for Tuesday am. It's going to be interesting to see if this works. My own recollection is the majority of November snows in the first half of the month come via the low probability anafrontal pathway along the coast. 00Z GEM and 00Z Euro are pretty much alike as well in regards to snow for Tuesday AM. Low level VV's aren't too impressive though imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 seems like a long shot but would be nice! MON NIGHT INTO TUE...STRONG ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING S FROM NRNCANADA...DRAGGING A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THEMAIN FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE PER THESLOWER SOLUTION...BUT STILL NOT STRONG MID LVL F-GEN AND DEEPLAYER MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY TUE. ALSO...AM NOTINGSTRONG LOW LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THEFRONT. THIS MIX OF FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THEPOSSIBILITY OF RAIN SQUALLS WHICH MAY HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLINGTO SHIFT TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE COOL EARLY MORNINGHOURS. SHOULD THERE BE ANY BRIEF SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT...SOMEACCUM IS POSSIBLE EVEN ON THE WARM SFC TEMPS FOR NOVEMBER AND MAYBE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS AS A 30+ KT LLJ MOVES IN. NOT ASLAM DUNK HERE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURINGTHE TUE MORNING COMMUTE...ITS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. THE BULK OFTHIS PRECIP THREAT LOOKS TO BE OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONHOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm guessing we'll see some flakes in any case. Meanwhile, we have today's warmth to dread and gusty winds to enjoy. 34.7/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I think it's in the cards for your area. Wouldn't surprise me. Euro/GFS/GGEM still say inch or so in elevated terrain and dustings elsewhere. It looks like it might start as rain and flip to snow Looks like road crews around the area will get first saltings in of season. Dirty car season FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Inch is a long shot. Coating more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Inch is a long shot. Coating more realistic. Some lucky place may get a quick 2 inches under a squall..We'll just have to see how it unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.