ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yeah that EPO flip does us in before we get the blocking up toward Greenland. Bummer. Hopefully we see the EPO go back negative around or after Thanksgiving when we can take more advantage of it. I don't mind near normal for 11/20....its kind of hard to get a legit snow event during that time frame anyway....as much as I'd love a 2-4 incher, I'd hate to see the classic 6 week pattern flip back to warm happen in time for Xmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yeah that EPO flip does us in before we get the blocking up toward Greenland. Bummer. I am happy to see the phase changes starting to appear in all ens now. The muted warm up happens then it starts to look favorable for the end of Nov beginning of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm just excited we are seeing a different weather pattern for once, I mean whether its the real cold air mass by WED, or a storm, it doesn't matter as long as we get one of them, I'm satisfied. The PNA ridge moves eastward and that does our disturbance in when it tries to get going over the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 good snow squall rolling through work 45/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Hopefully we see the EPO go back negative around or after Thanksgiving when we can take more advantage of it. I don't mind near normal for 11/20....its kind of hard to get a legit snow event during that time frame anyway....as much as I'd love a 2-4 incher, I'd hate to see the classic 6 week pattern flip back to warm happen in time for Xmas week. Ensemble forecasts have the EPO going positive next week but them around 11/23 it starts to go back negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm sure glad I didn't vest any energy is the storm that was hinted at next week. Hopefully we'll get a light coating over the weekend and on Monday night/Tues. Nice to have the flurries today regardless. 36.0/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Tremendous clouds today over the ocean and overhead. Tremendous vertical growth in them, what Phil said. i expect the frontal passage to bring an even more amazing day in terms of cloud growth. Could be cold enough for snow here on the Cape, but then again I have seen plenty of fronts weaken before making it to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 WHat is anyone's take on the NAM? ANy hints towards the potential storm next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 WHat is anyone's take on the NAM? ANy hints towards the potential storm next week? Dude, have you read this forum at all today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Dude, have you read this forum at all today? Dude, yeah I have, but no hints towards what anyone thinks about the NAM. What it's take is on the storm next week. I know the models are down about having a storm here next week, and honestly I think we don't have a storm, but rather it develops too far offshore, but I know enough about the weather to keep all possibilities open at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Dude, yeah I have, but no hints towards what anyone thinks about the NAM. What it's take is on the storm next week. I know the models are down about having a storm here next week, and honestly I think we don't have a storm, but rather it develops too far offshore, but I know enough about the weather to keep all possibilities open at this point. not even close to the time frame for analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well at least jamesnichols is getting feisty. Nice cold spell coming. Winter will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well at least jamesnichols is getting feisty. Nice cold spell coming. Winter will be here soon. Yup. Winter means cold as well as snow. At least we'll have the cold. 35.4/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well at least jamesnichols is getting feisty. Nice cold spell coming. Winter will be here soon.i hope so... i hate those years where the solstice gets delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Dude, yeah I have, but no hints towards what anyone thinks about the NAM. What it's take is on the storm next week. I know the models are down about having a storm here next week, and honestly I think we don't have a storm, but rather it develops too far offshore, but I know enough about the weather to keep all possibilities open at this point. NAM only runs out to 84 hrs........"storm" is 168 hrs out......whats left of it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 i hope so... i hate those years where the solstice gets delayedDaylight savings solstice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 NAM only runs out to 84 hrs........"storm" is 168 hrs out......whats left of it anyway What about it's forecast on the arctic front, doesn't that play a large roll on where the storm goes? I think it centers the disturbance closer to the vortex over Ontario, Canada and therefore keeps it further north. However as everyone has said, it's still a long ways before getting in range for our next week storm time frame. I'm not saying this storm happens, as I currently think it goes out to sea and is harmless towards our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 What about it's forecast on the arctic front, doesn't that play a large roll on where the storm goes? I think it centers the disturbance closer to the vortex over Ontario, Canada and therefore keeps it further north. However as everyone has said, it's still a long ways before getting in range for our next week storm time frame. I'm not saying this storm happens, as I currently think it goes out to sea and is harmless towards our region.Grab a paper bag, breathe in and out about 50x, then accept that there's extremely low odds for a snowstorm in your backyard. We have 4+ months of snow chances to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Grab a paper bag, breathe in and out about 50x, then accept that there's extremely low odds for a snowstorm in your backyard. We have 4+ months of snow chances to go. I'm not in disagreement, I personally don't think the storm happens, but instead is out to sea as trough settles over region, what is potentially possible is we get some showers off the ocean as delta Ts increase substantially over the ocean behind the frontal passage. Again all speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS is weaker with the H5 low over Lake Superior at hour 63, NAM seems to like this feature more so than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Grab a paper bag, breathe in and out about 50x, then accept that there's extremely low odds for a snowstorm in your backyard. We have 4+ months of snow chances to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yeah that EPO flip does us in before we get the blocking up toward Greenland. Bummer. Not really convinced the EPO is being handled right. The phase of the north Pacific would favor new emergences of ridge nodes near Alaska, and the current downward spike was also missed 7 days ago in the index progs at the time. That said, it also depends on the agency. The CDC EPO has it not recovering greater than neutral, and it doesn't really do so until after D8; the NAO is already starting to decline then -- so there is some room to argue for a relay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm not more excited about this period for storms as the next guy in this forum. Get over the fact you need to wail on me and make fun of me for voicing my opinion on this opinionated forum. Geez seriously, people need to stop this nonsense. I'm not in it for hyping, I hate hyping scenarios, I just voice the options there are according to model runs. They are not gospel, they are guidance to use to form your forecast. I know where I stand, I don't have a degree, but i have at least some knowledge in this science, so don't discredit me because I voice an opinion that actually agrees with most on here. It doesn't make sense. Sorry for off topic rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm not more excited about this period for storms as the next guy in this forum. Get over the fact you need to wail on me and make fun of me for voicing my opinion on this opinionated forum. Geez seriously, people need to stop this nonsense. I'm not in it for hyping, I hate hyping scenarios, I just voice the options there are according to model runs. They are not gospel, they are guidance to use to form your forecast. I know where I stand, I don't have a degree, but i have at least some knowledge in this science, so don't discredit me because I voice an opinion that actually agrees with most on here. It doesn't make sense. Sorry for off topic rant. Nothing wrong with what you're saying, but realize some of what you're saying belongs in the Banter thread. To bring up the NAM which only runs out to 84 hrs to discuss a 150 hr threat (that is clearly dead if you read the prior discussion) is not really appropriate for this thread, and I don't mean to be a jerk, I'm as excited about snow/cold as any other weenie, but you have to keep the discussion free of weenie hype...or at least try! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Nothing wrong with what you're saying, but realize some of what you're saying belongs in the Banter thread. To bring up the NAM which only runs out to 84 hrs to discuss a 150 hr threat (that is clearly dead if you read the discussion) is not appropriate. Everything I'm talking about with regards to the NAM is in relation to the arctic front and where it ends up positioning itself over the Western Atlantic Ocean. Baroclinic zone placement matters in this instance as the arctic front brings 850mb temps below -8C, so this boundary impacts our storm potential track and intensity. SO the NAM is almost in range in this topic. We can talk about it, because this forum is about November weather, not just storm next week. While I may overplay the importance of the Gulf Stream, it is important at least in the mesoscale impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I salute Capecodweatherjan2005gulfstreamwillsaveus. In any case, euro ensembles try to raise heights in the PNA domain. Hopefully they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 WHich historical index would you use to measure the great influence of the NAO on snowstorms of 6"+, 12"+, and 18"+. I'm trying to intertwine the difference and influence of the Gulf Stream compared to the minor to major nor'easters that impact Southern New England, namely Cape Cod, MA, given that's where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I salute Capecodweatherjan2005gulfstreamwillsaveus. In any case, euro ensembles try to raise heights in the PNA domain. Hopefully they are right. I give you props man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Period of time will be from March 2000 through November 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I salute Capecodweatherjan2005gulfstreamwillsaveus. In any case, euro ensembles try to raise heights in the PNA domain. Hopefully they are right. lol. yeah they look pretty warm from about day 9 to day 11-ish but seem too cool off a bit thereafter - at least speaking to the surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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