Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This whole love fest for the euro op 7+ days out because of Sandy needs to stop.??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't think anyone is doing that. The system is 6 days out...anything can happen. But right now, the odds certainly favor a miss over a Euro solution. Put me on the side of a miss rather than a full hit "right now". I just don't think the pattern favors such an amplified solution like the Euro. Maybe a wave develops along the front that gives some a light snow/ rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 A couple notes: 1) This may be our first real test case to see what effect the GFS upgrade had on it's historic SE bias 2) A strong fropa with a weak wave forming on it seems more likely than a strong coastal OTS I think. If it wraps up I'd think water temps and the +NAO argue for strong ridge resistance which should keep it fairly close to the shore. 3) HP core to the west moved significantly further south from the Western Lakes to the MS Valley in the last 24 hours on the euro. Also LP shifted further SE into Hudson bay. Looking more like that 1921 ice storm map. Not suggesting that will happen obviously, but gives a bit of weight to the further west solution IMO. 4) We could have 2 snow events before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The various Ops runs which have at times closed off a ULL has to be considered. Total dismissal 7 days out is as much a weenie as total belief the 0z run is locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The various Ops runs which have at times closed off a ULL has to be considered. Total dismissal 7 days out is as much a weenie as total belief the 0z run is locked and loaded. Well sure but to me if there has been any trend on the models it is to a less amplified, further East solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 ??????? How do you not see that? So because the euro op shows this we assume it has to be more right than wrong. We'll just ignore the pattern and every other piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 A couple notes: 1) This may be our first real test case to see what effect the GFS upgrade had on it's historic SE bias 2) A strong fropa with a weak wave forming on it seems more likely than a strong coastal OTS I think. If it wraps up I'd think water temps and the +NAO argue for strong ridge resistance which should keep it fairly close to the shore. 3) HP core to the west moved significantly further south from the Western Lakes to the MS Valley in the last 24 hours on the euro. Also LP shifted further SE into Hudson bay. Looking more like that 1921 ice storm map. Not suggesting that will happen obviously, but gives a bit of weight to the further west solution IMO. 4) We could have 2 snow events before the storm The flow out west also argues for it to be kicked OTS too. I do think the flow amplifies enough to allow for a storm, but I can't wrap my head around the euro. Maybe a Canadian solution or just a storm too far OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The flow out west also argues for it to be kicked OTS too. I do think the flow amplifies enough to allow for a storm, but I can't wrap my head around the euro. Maybe a Canadian solution or just a storm too far OTS. The euro solution seems to entirely hinge on the fact that it the U/L low cuts off after day 5. The +AO regime might be a boon in that case as a strong vortex will assist the jet snapping back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This whole love fest for the euro op 7+ days out because of Sandy needs to stop. Those arms burning from waving those caution flags violently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The euro solution seems to entirely hinge on the fact that it the U/L low cuts off after day 5. The +AO regime might be a boon in that case as a strong vortex will assist the jet snapping back. I can see how it cuts off with that flow to the north thanks to the AO, but then a trough digs out west. It just screams euro bias to me, but stranger things have happened. I also think the GFS is too flat as usual. Hopefully we can get something with the front as it passes through at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Those arms burning from waving those caution flags violently? The hype machine is out of control already. So annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The hype machine is out of control already. So annoying. Heed my sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The flow out west also argues for it to be kicked OTS too. I do think the flow amplifies enough to allow for a storm, but I can't wrap my head around the euro. Maybe a Canadian solution or just a storm too far OTS. In my novice approach here ( clearly I do not have the knowledge of most on here), but most of our bigger storms the last two years seemed to been dismissed about a week out by a few here, and the likes of Steve and Kevin were sounding alarm bells. Now, I am not saying the Euro weenie run is going to happen, but I will not dismiss anything until we get a couple of days and things start to be come clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I can see how it cuts off with that flow to the north thanks to the AO, but then a trough digs out west. It just screams euro bias to me, but stranger things have happened. I also think the GFS is too flat as usual. Hopefully we can get something with the front as it passes through at the very least. Around the 23rd of October I think there was a similar situation with a strong preceding U/L low blasting a cold front offshore and some modeling suggesting that energy on the backside would form a storm in it's wake. But it didn't happen... just fizzled. That's a real possibility. Granted nothing showed a coastal bomb and the AO was not strongly positive then. Regardless, it's great to be tracking this stuff again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 In my novice approach here ( clearly I do not have the knowledge of most on here), but most of our bigger storms the last two years seemed to been dismissed about a week out by a few here, and the likes of Steve and Kevin were sounding alarm bells. Now, I am not saying the Euro weenie run is going to happen, but I will not dismiss anything until we get a couple of days and things start to be come clearer. Right, you can't dismiss things 7+ days out....but I wouldn't sound the alarm and only talk about why it will happen. This is different from saying it won't snow....I'm referring to the euro showing 1-2'. We could get some snow behind the front as the wave forms...but even that isn't high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 At the very least, I think most see some snow in the air within the next week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yeah, consistently loony. You are such a debbie downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 put me in the total dismissal camp I wouldn't have you anywhere else... But mostly I am intrigued by how the trends the last few days have been colder and more chances of snow. This is much better than trends away. It seems like we are in a pattern in which there are going to be some possibilities. Even down your way. Not bad for early-mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 At the very least, I think most see some snow in the air within the next week to 10 days. Over the weekend up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 put me in the total dismissal camp I wouldn't have you anywhere else... But mostly I am intrigued by how the trends the last few days have been colder and more chances of snow. This is much better than trends away. It seems like we are in a pattern in which there are going to be some possibilities. Even down your way. Not bad for early-mid November. Euro has had a big wound up low on most of the runs the past few days. The problem has been the placement has fluctuated hundreds of miles run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 snow at ORH earlier this morning. first of the season, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Sort of a bummer that the Euro storm has virtually no ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 How do you not see that? So because the euro op shows this we assume it has to be more right than wrong. We'll just ignore the pattern and every other piece of guidance. you totally lost me on this one, who was talking about Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Sort of a bummer that the Euro storm has virtually no ensemble support. yeah. as long as it doesn't snow in tolland i don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 snow at ORH earlier this morning. first of the season, no? I think they had flakes in the air the other day? Nov 3? I forget. I know we had them in Hubbardston and Gardner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 yeah. as long as it doesn't snow in tolland i don't care. You must have been bummed this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 You must have been bummed this morning by what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Sammy will love this, surfs up http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F102/dtpres/npac/dtpres_npac_dprog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 by what? snow in tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 snow at ORH earlier this morning. first of the season, no? Yes, officially...though I'm pretty sure they did get a few mangled weenie flakes in that system last week. The ASOS usually has trouble registering that though as anything other than RA- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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