powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 LOL. good point. as to the posting of that stuff, i can't get over the constant need for people to be "first". actually getting something right doesn't even matter anymore. it's weird. i'll occasionally make a public comment on long-range fantasy storms, but try hard to make sure the sarcasm is obvious What I've noticed is that this is true as well... because social media saves posts and forecasts and its very easy to reference them in the future. So what I've seen is forecasters who want to thump their chest will *bump* these posts or use these week-out discussions to prove they were the first one to start talking about it as a possibility or something of that nature. I forget where I saw it, but I was looking at some mets credentials/biography and it was a link to some facebook and twitter posts showing how he had accurately started talking about storm xyz over 8 days before it happened...and another storm over 6 days prior. So he was essentially saying he hit two long range forecasts and had the links to back it up. What that met failed to do, was show alllllll the links to the fantasy storms that were modeled and he talked about as well. So each week he's posting about fantasy storms on the models, two of them pan out, and those are the ones folks cite as "he knew it before everyone else, look at the dates on the postings!" **Edit... mods this is probably more banter than here. Move if someone sees this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 yeah it's sort of lost in the storm talk. Yeah, MEX guidance already has a high of 37 at ORH which is pretty sick for 6 days out. That's like 12F below climo...which is really hard to get on MOS that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah, MEX guidance already has a high of 37 at ORH which is pretty sick for 6 days out. That's like 12F below climo...which is really hard to get on MOS that far out. yeah yesterday i know it had a 44F at HYA and i think the day as a whole was like a -8 or -9 at Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 One thing that IS becoming more certain is a very anomalous cold shot...likely even more anomalous southwest of here than for us...but even here there could be some records challenged if guidance stays on course with the magnitude. It seems as if the models are trending drastically towards the cold penetrating further south. A few days ago, it looked more like a gradient pattern that keeps Quebec and New England cold with a bit of SE ridge still in place. Now it's more of a full latitude trough for the middle of next week almost as though we had a -NAO in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FWIW euro ensembles are well offshore. They do have some members pretty far west, but nothing even close to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FWIW euro ensembles are well offshore. They do have some members pretty far west, but nothing even close to the op.How does the QPF field look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 How does the QPF field look like? Seriously? 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 How does the QPF field look like? I don't get QPF from the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pouring rain here .55 on the day, wind gusted to 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I also will note this storm may help form a bootleg weak -NAO. The AK trough teleconnects to weak ridging in eastern Canada and with the heat forced north from the potential low..it may help raise heights in the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Kooky kind of guy. All that bashing of JB over the years and he gets his maps from him. Meanwhile 195 sustained and Josh is in its direct path, typhoon Yolanda to the islanders will be tragic I made a passing comment about how "nice" it would be riding it out. Holy M'fckn Sh*t GD SOB, well can't think of enough swears. Are you kidding me. I'm glad we be on the other-side of the Globe and only have to worry about a snowstorm that could be. Gusts to 150mph hell ya! 230+ I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I also will note this storm may help form a bootleg weak -NAO. The AK trough teleconnects to weak ridging in eastern Canada and with the heat forced north from the potential low..it may help raise heights in the Davis Straits. Still a mild look, but a chance it could be less of a mild period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Still a mild look, but a chance it could be less of a mild period? Ryans favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Still a mild look, but a chance it could be less of a mild period? If it plays out right, we might get away with just some transient mildness and not a big torch. It looks pretty warm over the central US around 11/17-11/19, but some troughiness tries to build into the lakes and NE to prevent a total furnace here. There must be some members recharging Canada, because by 300h we have better cold in Canada than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Ryans favorites I Iove the spread... some ensemble member showing -15C at the same time another shows +12C. No biggie in terms of sensible weather, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If it plays out right, we might get away with just some transient mildness and not a big torch. It looks pretty warm over the central US around 11/17-11/19, but some troughiness tries to build into the lakes and NE to prevent a total furnace here. There must be some members recharging Canada, because by 300h we have better cold in Canada than previous runs.Does the GOAK trough weaken at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pouring rain here .55 on the day, wind gusted to 23 That's great--enjoy. If it plays out right, we might get away with just some transient mildness and not a big torch. It looks pretty warm over the central US around 11/17-11/19, but some troughiness tries to build into the lakes and NE to prevent a total furnace here. There must be some members recharging Canada, because by 300h we have better cold in Canada than previous runs. So frequently we speak of wintry weather as being "delayed but not denied". Perhaps--just perhaps--we'll get a season where the mild signals continually get muted and pushed back. Here's to hoping in any case. 43.2/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 crazy uncle would extrapolate to quite the event ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If it plays out right, we might get away with just some transient mildness and not a big torch. It looks pretty warm over the central US around 11/17-11/19, but some troughiness tries to build into the lakes and NE to prevent a total furnace here. There must be some members recharging Canada, because by 300h we have better cold in Canada than previous runs. Does the GOAK trough weaken at the end? I bet you wake up screaming from nightmares about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If it plays out right, we might get away with just some transient mildness and not a big torch. It looks pretty warm over the central US around 11/17-11/19, but some troughiness tries to build into the lakes and NE to prevent a total furnace here. There must be some members recharging Canada, because by 300h we have better cold in Canada than previous runs. Heights were a bit higher by AK so the cold was not as easy to flush out. Hopefully it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I bet you wake up screaming from nightmares about that.You know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I bet you wake up screaming from nightmares about that. Seems lots of good smart people can not shake the Death vortex of Nov 12 out of their dreams.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Fracasso brings up a good point ... IN THE EAST... THE MODELS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY SHOWN SFCCYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST COAST BY WED-THU/D6-7 AS TROUGHINGDEEPENS ALONG 85W. PREFER NOT TO JUMP ON ANY PARTICULAR MODEL ATTHIS TIME GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SAMPLING/FORECAST OFTHE MULTIPLE SOURCE REGIONS OF THIS ENERGY. IN ADDITION... MINORCHANGES OF TIMING/INTERACTION WITHIN A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OFMID-LEVEL ENERGY HAS RESULTED IN VERY DIFFERENT FORECASTS FOR THESURFACE FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS. NEVERTHELESS... THE FORECAST OF ARESPECTABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD /850MBTEMPS NEAR -1.5 STD DEV/ COMBINED WITH STILL WARM WESTERN ATLANTICWATERS WOULD SUPPORT AT THE LEAST A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE JUSTOFFSHORE... BUT HOW FAR OFFSHORE REMAINS THE QUESTION. IN SHORT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS. That's probably the most important take on the day's modeling. The EPO dump is probably going to be real, and when that air mass settles to the MA and NE coast we are going to establish a pretty fantastically volatile setting. It won't take much of an perturbation in the flow to pop something off -- we'll just have to wait and see if it comes in the form of Euro, or something else ...or nothing at all (waste of a good pattern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Damn Tip that UKMET image is drool worthy here in Philly. Looks like itd close off in perfect position my god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Meh, UKIE is too far off shore for most, it looks like. Maybe MidAtl and Cape. Looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Meh, UKIE is too far off shore for most, it looks like. Maybe MidAtl and Cape. Looks like the GFS. It looks like the GGEM more than anything. Its a good solution for SNE. It also doesn't really matter anyway at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This is way more interesting than temp/drought talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Meh, UKIE is too far off shore for most, it looks like. Maybe MidAtl and Cape. Looks like the GFS. Actually ... what I didn't mention there is the morphology going from D4 to 5, then to 6. Those changes aloft, if they occurred with the same going into a would-be D7, that low gets captured, deepens a lot, and slams into the upper MA as a "hook and latter" scenario. But like Will said, we're just having fun here imagining these difference scenarios and/or interpreting ... That is all. No determinism here really.. And I think like Fracasso from NCEP said in the mid r discussion today, the main gist of concern is that a -2SD air mass rolling through the GL into NE is going to lay-down a whopper baroclinicity along where the warm Gulf stream kisses the near-shore bleed. Won't take much of a perturbation in the flow to pop off something ...anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Interesting outlook from new theory based on OPI just posted, basically cold early start, mild mid, cold end http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/#entry2464681 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Actually ... what I didn't mention there is the morphology going from D4 to 5, then to 6. Those changes aloft, if they occurred with the same going into a would-be D7, that low gets captured, deepens a lot, and slams into the upper MA as a "hook and latter" scenario. But like Will said, we're just having fun here imagining these difference scenarios and/or interpreting ... That is all. No determinism here really.. And I think like Fracasso from NCEP said in the mid r discussion today, the main gist of concern is that a -2SD air mass rolling through the GL into NE is going to lay-down a whopper baroclinicity along where the warm Gulf stream kisses the near-shore bleed. Won't take much of a perturbation in the flow to pop off something ...anything. Good to be back, eh? I love winter. GFS is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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