Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Ginxy what did you use to D-Ice back then? Oh and btw that W PAC hurricane is looking very special this am. Wonder if that energy rounds NE and how that may effect/ things 7-10 days from now no definitely not a recurve but the ET's N of Japan Sammy mentioned are sure interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I imagine it's much more difficult to get an ice storm when there's no snow on the ground. Wouldn't a snow base provide for a cooler lower layer or does it not have much bearing on what's taking place at branch level? Well the December 2008 ice storm had no snow on the ground...ditto November 16, 2002. Not sure about the November 1921 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro Ensembles definitely have some sort of storm.... a fair amount of QPF falls on the ensemble mean around 180H - timing is uncertain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 WELP, nothing sneaky about this cold next week LOL. My god these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The model changes for next week have been nothing short of astounding since Monday. Monday morning featured a classic SE ridge with a -PNA teleconnection. Today where is a SE trough I think it all stemmed from ther strong Aleutian ridge breaking and causing the trough in the west to pinch off with some of the energy cutting SW towards Hawaii and therefore a much weaker western trough. Now we have a high amplitude wave pattern of ridge-trough-ridge-trough etc that is helping to cause the area of low pressure over the east. Still a high spread in the Pacific so perhaps we aren't done with the rollercoaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The model changes for next week have been nothing short of astounding since Monday. Monday morning featured a classic SE ridge with a -PNA teleconnection. Today where is a SE trough I think it all stemmed from ther strong Aleutian ridge breaking and causing the trough in the west to pinch off with some of the energy cutting SW towards Hawaii and therefore a much weaker western trough. Now we have a high amplitude wave pattern of ridge-trough-ridge-trough etc that is helping to cause the area of low pressure over the east. Still a high spread in the Pacific so perhaps we aren't done with the rollercoaster. Things are so complex and convoluted in the North Pacific I really think it's a wait an see kind of deal but the normal "teleconnections" may not be very useful in the D7-D15 period forecasting. Lots of weird stuff happening in the Pac with very high amplitudes and very little stability to the pattern. Cool stuff - will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The model changes for next week have been nothing short of astounding since Monday. Monday morning featured a classic SE ridge with a -PNA teleconnection. Today where is a SE trough I think it all stemmed from ther strong Aleutian ridge breaking and causing the trough in the west to pinch off with some of the energy cutting SW towards Hawaii and therefore a much weaker western trough. Now we have a high amplitude wave pattern of ridge-trough-ridge-trough etc that is helping to cause the area of low pressure over the east. Still a high spread in the Pacific so perhaps we aren't done with the rollercoaster. Throw in the chaos of whatever coastal some models are trying to develop in the middle of it all next week, and were in big trouble as forecasters haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The model changes for next week have been nothing short of astounding since Monday. Monday morning featured a classic SE ridge with a -PNA teleconnection. Today where is a SE trough I think it all stemmed from ther strong Aleutian ridge breaking and causing the trough in the west to pinch off with some of the energy cutting SW towards Hawaii and therefore a much weaker western trough. Now we have a high amplitude wave pattern of ridge-trough-ridge-trough etc that is helping to cause the area of low pressure over the east. Still a high spread in the Pacific so perhaps we aren't done with the rollercoaster. Yes, the retrogression of the trough from the PAC NW (toward Hawaii) has allowed for a temporary ridge to bump up in the Rockies preceding the modeled storm next week...whether or not the storm happens depends on additional factors, but one of the reasons it is appearing more on different guidance is definitely the PAC NW trough retrogression (and cutoff) and the coupled downstream Rockies ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Things are so complex and convoluted in the North Pacific I really think it's a wait an see kind of deal but the normal "teleconnections" may not be very useful in the D7-D15 period forecasting. Lots of weird stuff happening in the Pac with very high amplitudes and very little stability to the pattern. Cool stuff - will be fun to watch. Yes, the retrogression of the trough from the PAC NW (toward Hawaii) has allowed for a temporary ridge to bump up in the Rockies preceding the modeled storm next week...whether or not the storm happens depends on additional factors, but one of the reasons it is appearing more on different guidance is definitely the PAC NW trough retrogression (and cutoff) and the coupled downstream Rockies ridge. Check your PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Things are so complex and convoluted in the North Pacific I really think it's a wait an see kind of deal but the normal "teleconnections" may not be very useful in the D7-D15 period forecasting. Lots of weird stuff happening in the Pac with very high amplitudes and very little stability to the pattern. Cool stuff - will be fun to watch. Speak for yourself I'm living a nightmare watching this unfold here lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 BTW it's interesting that in the last few days several different resorts changed their approach. A few were pushing for openings towards the later prat of the month or weren't planning on making much snow I presume based on the warmer weather pending. About 24-36 hours ago I noticed places like Loon went full on with the snowmaking and are now planning on 10 or so trails this weekend. Seems like their forecasters are maybe thinking it's not a lost cause to lay down snow now. Yeah next week's cold (wet bulbs in the teens at elevation) with sub -10C 850 air... any modern snowmaking equipment will bury a trail. We'll probably just stockpile huge tailing piles under the guns and let that sit without opening it up and pushing it around. A 10-foot high pile will survive much better than a widespread 1 foot covering just based on what's exposed to the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Speak for yourself I'm living a nightmare watching this unfold here lol! lol fair point. When I get to work this weekend I may have a different take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 lol fair point. When I get to work this weekend I may have a different take. To be fair I actually will enjoy having something to track for a change while doing my job...but lets just say temp outlooks havent been too great of late...for your sake, maybe things will get sorted out better by the weekend you can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gfs certainly has a potent piece of energy this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah next week's cold (wet bulbs in the teens at elevation) with sub -10C 850 air... any modern snowmaking equipment will bury a trail. We'll probably just stockpile huge tailing piles under the guns and let that sit without opening it up and pushing it around. A 10-foot high pile will survive much better than a widespread 1 foot covering just based on what's exposed to the air. Think it'll be crowded this weekend? I would like to see a major system evolve on the east coast. Would really allow you guys all to pummel the trails. Pretty excited about what looks to be a favorable early season situation despite a potential mild up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like a whiff on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Shar trough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 congrats cape hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like a whiff on the GFS. Trough never goes negative till it's offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS is wide right on the system this run...still damn cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 congrats cape hatteras Congrats RDU-HSE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Real cold, Good spot on the GFS for this one right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I do think the chances of a more eastward or progressive solution are greater, but that's a potent disturbance. If that even has a hair follicle of room to amplify...watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 that is some serious cold for early / mid november - GFS drives the 32F surface isotherm essentially to the gulf of mexico by thursday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I do think the chances of a more eastward or progressive solution are greater, but that's a potent disturbance. If that even has a hair follicle of room to amplify...watch out. Yep. I agree. I think a better shot for us is if the ULL in Canada stays a little further north than progged by the GFS...which certainly is a trend that would be more likely than the other way around IMHO. Its such a bizarre setup that I would expect a lot of different looking solutions by different guidance over the next few days as the trainwreck in the N PAC is sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yep. I agree. I think a better shot for us is if the ULL in Canada stays a little further north than progged by the GFS...which certainly is a trend that would be more likely than the other way around IMHO. Its such a bizarre setup that I would expect a lot of different looking solutions by different guidance over the next few days as the trainwreck in the N PAC is sorted out. Yeah and you can see on the euro, the ULL just scoots NE with plenty of time for the bottom half of that trough to dig for oil. Feels refreshing to actually talk synoptics for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Interesting how the GFS is moving the disturbance out to sea without much fanfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just drag some cold out here. That's all I ask. Amazing all of the hype this is getting in mainstream media... several people at work already asking and I had said nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just drag some cold out here. That's all I ask. Amazing all of the hype this is getting in mainstream media... several people at work already asking and I had said nothing. Social media FTL...I cringe at how much attention a 180 hour storm was getting yesterday. There was a time very recently when you'd be laughed off the forum for trying to take that seriously. There's definitely a signal for cold and a muddier looking signal for a system...but its so far out that getting more specific is silly. I'd probably just say its going to be quite cold and there is an outside potential for some wintry precip if things break right next week and leave it at that in terms of telling anything to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Social media FTL...I cringe at how much attention a 180 hour storm was getting yesterday. There was a time very recently when you'd be laughed off the forum for trying to take that seriously. You may still be laughed at taking that seriously, lol. I think folks in the northeast weather world are just that bored and antsy for something to happen that it could get out of control quickly if some sort of event were to take place. Even a 6-inch snowfall would likely be hyped into something monstrous with the way folks are just itching for some weather to talk/hype up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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