OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 You're speaking for GYX CWA and Dendrite, right? It looked like mostly rain down here in my eyes. Dude... Euro dumps a lot of QPF at onset, with 850 temps over SNE of like -6 or so at the warmest. But it cuts up the CT Valley, so we even changeover up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gonna be a long 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gonna be a long 7 days. I didn't dare mention the S word in my discussion for this storm. Tried to distract the weenies with mention of light snow with the low passing north of the border early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Not lookin like rain to me Mike. This thing looks like it could happen, track....well thats anyone's guess, right now just hoping for a storm but pretty hopeful. Is that a PNA spike i see for a short time as well during storm. Looks like it screws Mt. Tolland and GON in CT. We should have a new rule that anyone who posts accumulation maps a week out should be banned. 50.0/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gonna be a long 7 days. It's been a longer 7 months--we can deal with 7 days of weenie watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's been a longer 7 months--we can deal with 7 days of weenie watching. Not sure about that. I gets insufferable rather quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like it screws Mt. Tolland and GON in CT. We should have a new rule that anyone who posts accumulation maps a week out should be banned. 50.0/48 Haha well anyone that puts confidence into the solution being verbatim yesMy point was that this was not a mostly rain scenario (on last nite's run) as you had posted (for your area) I just want to see the anomalous cold continue to be shown on the models next cpl days, i don't want that backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Haha well anyone that puts confidence into the solution being verbatim yes My point was that this was not a mostly rain scenario as you had posted (for your area) I just want to see the anomalous cold continue to be shown on the models next cpl days, i don't want that backing off. Well it will back off some if you get the storm. Still looks meh in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well it will back off some if you get the storm. Still looks meh in the 11-15 day. Ya i get that part, if you mean the air will saturate (with storm) but i mean general air mass that is prog'd to drop into US, i don't want that to lose its 850 bite by even 2-3c next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Ya i get that part, if you mean the air will saturate (with storm) but i mean general air mass that is prog'd to drop into US It may fluctuate a bit as models sometimes will back off a hair last minute, but it should be cold no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It may fluctuate a bit as models sometimes will back off a hair last minute, but it should be cold no matter how you slice it.I mean if nothing else things look like there is increasing chances of things getting interesting for some in New England. I was thinking given Canadian and GFS having something this far out and "Euro's crazy D10" solution that it would re-appear last nite and im glad it did. So when you realize how boring it has been for ...."ever" and how unseasonable cold is being shown and now various model support for "something of a system" that things are finally getting interesting again.Now wrt that something I'd like to know what some biggest challenges are given the (i assume) model'd fast flow and I'd think it may be getting any shortwave to amplify enough, And if it did amplify , wether it has much room to NOT cut. I guess just watch the evolution of things at 5H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gonna be a long 7 days. 7 days - 14 runs of the Euro, GGEM, Ukie, and 28 runs of the GFS. Just the fact that we have a storm on guidance for the area makes me happy. Anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I mean if nothing else things look like there is increasing chances of things getting interesting for some in New England. I was thinking given Canadian and GFS having something this far out and "Euro's crazy D10" solution that it would re-appear last nite and im glad it did. So when you realize how boring it has been for ...."ever" and how unseasonable cold is being shown and now various model support for "something of a system" that things are finally getting interesting again. Now wrt that something I'd like to know what some biggest challenges are given the (i assume) model'd fast flow and I'd think it may be getting any shortwave to amplify enough, And if it did amplify , wether it has much room to NOT cut. I guess just watch the evolution of things at 5H. If I had to guess...I would say the potential for a more eastward solution is on the table, however the ensembles are definitely on board with a storm so that needs to be weighed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 the NE CT dryslot is there , lock that biatch up. So every model develops a cutoff ULL now, cool, where when what DM, details details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Not sure about that. I gets insufferable rather quick. Huh? you are getting curmudgeon like. What would you rather us talk about 5H tendencies over AK, seriously bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Huh? you are getting curmudgeon like. What would you rather us talk about 5H tendencies over AK, seriously bro. Continue this in the banter thead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 7 days - 14 runs of the Euro, GGEM, Ukie, and 28 runs of the GFS. Just the fact that we have a storm on guidance for the area makes me happy. Anything at this point. exactly the way all should look at it, who the hell cares what 11-15 looks like at this point. Debbies I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 exactly the way all should look at it, who the hell cares what 11-15 looks like at this point. Debbies I guess To each their own. Who the hell knows, this could end up missing us altogether but at least we have a few days to watch something unfold. Pretty dynamic solutions as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If the potency of the cold airmass is a lock then this is looking like the most exciting weather we've seen since the multiple cane hits on New England this summer (oh wait...) Given that the system is a week out we all know changes in track are almost a certainty, just how significant they end up being we will see. If the euro is cutting and the GFS is OTS don't we usually say the truth is a happy medium somewhere in between? Anyone want to comment on the likely factors that'll dictate the ultimate track of this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 First modeled snowfall on Wunderground this season, of course not correct but just to see it modeled means we are one step closer to our (most of us) favorite time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I told my wife the euro has snow for us verbatim although snow to rain technically. The euro gets her attention now but I told her it's a bit too early to take it too seriously. Point is, we had spring training, we're breaking camp now for some last minute exhibition games before the season starts imminently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I told my wife the euro has snow for us verbatim although snow to rain technically. The euro gets her attention now but I told her it's a bit too early to take it too seriously. Point is, we had spring training, we're breaking camp now for some last minute exhibition games before the season starts imminently. Exactly, mini drills are over, no more two a days. Starting to see the changes in ens modeling we talked about in regards to teleconnections for the end of the month. The transition warm period still on the books but the here and now has suddenly got all our attention. Sometimes in these heavy technical discussions you read across the board the trees are missed looking at the forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 The rain's started here at the Pit. I need to get my qpf antanae tuned up for the coming season. 55.6/52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Definitely some more amplified solutions on the the Euro last night...ensembles looked more amplified too though not like the OP. The ensemble mean now has 850 temps down to -8C over SNE leading into the event, which is colder than before...so the confidence in the cold shot is getting much higher....also both the GFS and Euro have a much stronger WINDEX signal than before...they even show QPF over us....but we'd need to get much closer to really think about WINDEX parameters...too dicey to try and pick that potential apart from more than 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Famous Nov interior ice storms revisited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Definitely some more amplified solutions on the the Euro last night...ensembles looked more amplified too though not like the OP. The ensemble mean now has 850 temps down to -8C over SNE leading into the event, which is colder than before...so the confidence in the cold shot is getting much higher....also both the GFS and Euro have a much stronger WINDEX signal than before...they even show QPF over us....but we'd need to get much closer to really think about WINDEX parameters...too dicey to try and pick that potential apart from more than 48 hours out. It will be great if the season continues to have torches get muted and changed to cooler and more wintry. The alternative is such a let down. To the here and now, winds have backed to the WNW here after being from the SW for less than three hours. 54.4/52 off a high of 55.8 .04" in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Famous Nov interior ice storms revisited? I imagine it's much more difficult to get an ice storm when there's no snow on the ground. Wouldn't a snow base provide for a cooler lower layer or does it not have much bearing on what's taking place at branch level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nov 29th 1921 ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Ginxy what did you use to D-Ice back then? Oh and btw that W PAC hurricane is looking very special this am. Wonder if that energy rounds NE and how that may effect/ things 7-10 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I didn't dare mention the S word in my discussion for this storm. Tried to distract the weenies with mention of light snow with the low passing north of the border early Sunday morning. Good choice, Mtn and foothill snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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