CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Here is why I am highly confident of this warm spell. Ridging near the Aleutians and a big -PNA response. Notice the height anomalies remain rather high through the images. Also that Atlantic cutoff is going to help keep the heights in place over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Nothing is impossible, but I would not count on the same thing that happened this past week in which we had energy split off the west coast and screw with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Now if you want to debate longevity of it...then I'm all ears. Agree about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Wasn't last November the driest on record?We had 2 snowstorms last Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 We had 2 snowstorms last Nov I think it was still the driest November on record at BDL... Ryan will know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I think it was still the driest November on record at BDL... Ryan will know. Yup. 0.40" was the driest November on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Scooter post the 11-15 we were talking about, that warm spell seems a lock, it's 5-10 day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Scooter post the 11-15 we were talking about, that warm spell seems a lock, it's 5-10 day though. Seems like there are signs of a cool down by the end of the D11-D15 window but I don't think it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yup. 0.40" was the driest November on record. Really? I didn't realize it was that dry...figured both storms would add up to more than that, without looking back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Seems like there are signs of a cool down by the end of the D11-D15 window but I don't think it's a lock. GEFS are pretty chilly though D11-D15 for most of the eastern 2/3 of CONUS so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Really? I didn't realize it was that dry...figured both storms would add up to more than that, without looking back. BDL sort of got screwed from storm #1... I don't remember the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Scooter post the 11-15 we were talking about, that warm spell seems a lock, it's 5-10 day though. It sucks to only post the ewall since they don't have an ensemble 11-15 day mean, but here is the 12z GEFS. So you see on those, despite the AK ridge, the flow is zonal off the Pacific. It may mean split flow and storms, but it's not vodka cold by any means. We may be fighting that regime for a bit...this is when it would be nice for a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I think it was still the driest November on record at BDL... Ryan will know. We had more qpf east of river than BDL did. It was dry overall..Most of our qpf last Nov fell in those 2 snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 BDL sort of got screwed from storm #1... I don't remember the second storm. Good thing you don't...it was a hilltop special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 BDL sort of got screwed from storm #1... I don't remember the second storm. The 2nd one was more of an elevation event. We had 2-4 inches around here from what i recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 It sucks to only post the ewall since they don't have an ensemble 11-15 day mean, but here is the 12z GEFS. f264.gif f300.gif f360.gif f384.gif So you see on those, despite the AK ridge, the flow is zonal off the Pacific. It may mean split flow and storms, but it's not vodka cold by any means. We may be fighting that regime for a bit...this is when it would be nice for a -NAO. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Thanks Good news is no AK vortex. We can work out the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 We had a thunderstorm pass through here about two hours ago, Lightning took out the cable temporarily. It was a wild lightning strike. Shook the entire house for five seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 We had a thunderstorm pass through here about two hours ago, Lightning took out the cable temporarily. It was a wild lightning strike. Shook the entire house for five seconds.Pics or video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Streams and brooks around here are low as I've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Interesting... KBDL 110251Z 28014G26KT 10SM SCT049 BKN080 07/M01 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 29026/0251 SLP127 T00721011 53013 KHFD 110253Z 00000KT 10SM OVC060 08/M01 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP133 T00831006 53014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Weird. The wind here has really picked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Streams and brooks around here are low as I've seen in a long time. Imagine if this dry era took place from April to June..? It probably isn't that big of a deal happening now, as the dry has not penetrated to the deeper water tables. The surface sources certainly are burdened, though. But, we are entering the Nor'easter season. If this winter doesn't produce a snow pack and/or intervening rain events prove harder to come by, this would become a much bigger issue next spring. We were wet in May and June, and enough big snow pack melt off events took place in late winter leading, so to establish a deeper water stow. Mid summer was hit or miss. Some climo sites like HFD were above normal in August, others were modestly dry. But those late winter --> spring and early summer wet anomalies offset the current dry as far as deep layer moisture. So ... it's not as bad as it could be. Establishing dry in late winter and spring, and then going into the higher evaporation time periods there after is a much bigger/severe/aggressive drought issue, then having a moisture surplus leading into late summer and autumn dryness. A couple of 1 foot snow events and a couple garbage rain/mix tweener systems, for the long haul ...probably sets us up for a more typical spring run-off. Currently the monitoring sets eastern areas in moderate. Probably should go with that, but "I" don't really buy it as far as impact. I was just over the Merrimack at the Tyngsborough bridge, and the water level appeared normal there. Granted ... the head waters for the Merrimack is up in the White's water-shed, and they may boost better summer seasonal totals than down here... But I haven't heard of any "big river" flow deficits around here, either. Maybe there are... So we'll call it moderate, but I'd rather be sitting moderate in Novie with the expectation of winter storms coming down the pipe-line, versus late April after the same sort of dry run-up. It's been dry, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Weird. The wind here has really picked up The LLJ is raging. Seems like some mechanical turbulence is helping some mixing in some areas and none at all in others. The hills are getting buffeted pretty good I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The LLJ is raging. Seems like some mechanical turbulence is helping some mixing in some areas and none at all in others. The hills are getting buffeted pretty good I think. Had a pretty good acceleration of wind/gusts down here in the Nashoba Valley, too. Ayer sets at ~ 195" el (it's that low) but "whistling" through the now de-leafed trees is taking place. Clouds moving swiftly as they partially eclipse moonlight. I am wondering if there isn't a sneaky diffused boundary here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 KPSF 110254Z AUTO 29022G38KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN018 OVC024 02/M01 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 29038/0250 RAB14E48SNB48 SLP127 P0000 60001 T00171006 53020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Weird watching temperatures jumping up a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Wow, wind is really whipping out there... it's quite wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 So, I guess a little whitening is in the cards--especially I think for the folks in central MA where I think the best combination of temps and precipitation will be. Pretty gusty overnight. Now, another mild morning. 34.4/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 We better enjoy this upcoming cold shot. That might be it for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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