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November Weather Discussion


moneypitmike

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Obviously we're talking like 7-8 days out, but that could threaten some records on the Euro/GFS if we verified something close to that. Euro has highs in the 20s in the interior for at least one of those days. As a reference, ORH has only seen 3 days through 11/15 that have had high temps in the 20s. 11/11/87 (28F), 11/14/86 (29F), and 11/14/97 (28F).

 

I'm late to the discussion this morning... but holy sh*t on some of these runs like the 00z ECM and 6z GFS. 

 

The conservative in me can't bite on that yet... I just can't start throwing out wet-bulbs in the teens for most of next week for the snowmakers on the mountain with -10C to -16C air at 850mb.  Those guys will bury the place next week if this happens.

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It actually has a pretty good windex event accompanying the arctic front. Nice PVA...though the GFS has been the furthest south with this...I'd be a little skeptical of how far south it shows all the features.

 

That would be frigid though next Tuesday.

 

Yeah that's got like 3-6" squall event up here written all over it, particularly the mountains.  -10C at H85 traversing across the summits with moisture and lift... that's got awesome upslope snow growth written all over it as temps drop with the front into the favorable -10C to -16C temp range at summit level. 

 

GFS signal is there with the little bubble of light QPF over northern VT as that comes through... I'll be watching that one.  Ginxy WINDEX special.

 

gfs_namer_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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I made a early season Nov/Dec checklist for BOS and completely forgot about this. :lol:  This is good because it gives examples. Nice stuiff.

 

 

that's got to be close to when i joined the board. good post.

 

of course, look at kevin throwing veiled attacks at the coastal peeps even back then. 

 

 

 

Yeah, if we can get a wave out of that shortwave diving in from the plains, then I think the checklist will be well covered for BOS. We have a frigid airmass over the region with great high pressure placement and a likely track near or outside BM...obviously things can change and we may not even have an event to track...but IF something pops up, there's a pretty strong chance many would have frozen precip.

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12z GFS is out of the box solution, the disturbance in question goes negatively tilt around the OH Valley then closes off at H5.  This disturbance has been on the models the past few days, but a lot of variations with the final results.  I would venture to say that time needs to be taken on this as this is a 174 hour event.

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