September 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures

[Roger Smith]

Heads up, September starts in the middle of the long weekend of Labor Day so you might want to place your bets during the coming week. However, the penalty structure for late forecasts will be quite relaxed with the first day set at 1% per 6h period, the second day at 1% per 3 hours, then picking up to regular pace on the third (1% per hour) which would make the penalty on a forecast issued at 0100h on 4th 36% ... for the fourth the penalty rate increases to double the normal (2% per hour) and this continues into the early 5th until an absolute deadline is reached at 0800h 5th (almost the same time as under the usual structure which is 0400h 5th).

 

As usual, forecast the anomalies for these six stations (using this template saves me a small amount of work in making up the table, but any method is okay) ...

 

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

The race is tightening up with the provisional August scores available in post 45 of the August thread and the countdown to final anomalies in post 46.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

DCA: +0.9 NYC: +0.2 BOS: -0.4 ORD: -1.9 ATL: -2.1 IAH: -1.7

[Stebo]

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +1.4
BOS: +0.3
ORD: +1.4
ATL: -1.2
IAH: -0.7

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

0.3          0.6          -0.3              -1.5         0.5         1.5

[SACRUS]

DCA: +1.9

NYC: +1.8
BOS: +1.3
ORD: +1.8
ATL: +0.9
IAH: -0.2

 

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: -1.0

NYC: -2.1
BOS: -2.5
ORD: -0.9
ATL:  0.0
IAH: +1.9

[Ed Lizard]

Anyone who has looked at the GFS, or the CFS even, for the first 2 to 3 weeks of September and is predicting below normal temps for IAH, well, I just don't know.

 

Is the name CT Blizz retired forever? 35k posts and now I have to learn a new handle?

[MN Transplant]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

+0.9        +0.7      +0.0              +2.0        +1.0      +1.8

[Ellinwood]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

+0.1 __ +0.2 ___ +0.4 ______ -0.3 ___ 0.0 ___ +0.7

[Quixotic1]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

+1.9 __ +1.2 ___ +0.0 ______ +0.5 ___ -0.5 ___ +2.0

[Inudaw]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

+1.1          +0.9          +0.5              -0.8      -1.2         -1.5

[DerekZ]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

+2.1 __ +2.2 ___ +2.4 ______ +3.3 ___ -1.0 ___ +1.7 

[donsutherland1]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

1.2          1.2          1.0              0.6         0.5         1.3

[andyhb]

DCA: +1.1

NYC: +0.8
BOS: +0.5
ORD: +0.6
ATL: +0.2
IAH: -0.3

[Roger Smith]

Going to go torchie ...

 

+3.3 __ +3.5 __ +4.0 ____ +3.5 __ +2.6 __ +2.4

 

 

[metalicwx366]

DCA: +1.2

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +1.1

ORD: -0.3

ATL: +0.1

IAH: +2.3

[Chicago WX]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

+1.0 __ +1.0 ___ +1.5 ______ +1.5 ___ +0.8 ___ +2.5

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.3

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +1.5

ATL: +0.9

IAH: + 0.9

[uncle W]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

-0.5.......-0.4.......+0.3...........+1.0.......-0.5.......+1.0

[RodneyS]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

+0.3.......-0.8.......-0.4...........-0.7.......-0.3.......+0.3

[Mike.Ventrice]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.2

ORD: +0.5

ATL: -0.2

IAH: -0.8

[Isotherm]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

+0.3      +0.1      +0.5            +1.3      -0.4        +1.0

[Mallow]

DCA.......NYC.......BOS........ORD.......ATL.......IAH
-0.6......-0.4........-0.4........-1.2.......-0.8......+1.1

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: +1.2

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +1.6

ATL: +0.7

IAH: -0.6

[wxdude64]

DCA     NYC     BOS          ORD     ATL     IAH

 

+0.5    +0.4     +0.4        +0.1     +0.3     +0.5

[Chicago Storm]

DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH

-0.1 ... 0.0 ... +0.1 ... ... +0.5 ... -0.2 ... +0.3

[blazess556]

DCA: +1.1

NYC: +1.3

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +0.7

ATL: -0.4

IAH: -0.6

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA.......NYC.......BOS........ORD.......ATL.......IAH
-0.2......+0.4........+0.2........-0.5.......-0.4......-1.0

[Tom]

DCA.......NYC......BOS.....ORD.....ATL......IAH

 

 -0.2       -0.5       -0.4        +0.2     +0.2       +.07

[Roger Smith]

Table of entries, September 2013 forecast contest

 

 

Forecaster ______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

___________________________________________________________________

 

Roger Smith ____________ +3.3 ___ +3.5 ___ +4.0 ____ +3.5 __ +2.6 __ +2.4

 

Derek Z ________________ +2.1 __ +2.2 ___ +2.4 _____ +3.3 __ --1.0 __ +1.7

 

Sacrus _________________ +1.9 ___ +1.8 ___ +1.3 _____ +1.8 __ +0.9 __ --0.2

 

Goobagooba ____________ +1.9 ___ +1.2 ___ +0.0 _____ +0.5 __ --0.5 ___ +2.0
 

Stebo __________________ +1.7 ___ +1.4 ___ +0.3 _____ +1.4 __ --1.2 __ --0.7

 

bkviking ________________ +1.4 __ +1.3 ___ +1.3 ______ +1.5 __ +0.9 __ +0.9
 

Midlo_Snow_Maker _______ +1.2 ___ +1.4 ___ +1.5 _____ +1.6 __ +0.7 __ --0.6

 

donsutherland.1 __________ +1.2 ___ +1.2 ___ +1.0 _____ +0.6 __ +0.5 __ +1.3

 

metallicwx366 ___________ +1.2 ___ +0.8 ___ +1.1 ______ --0.3 __ +0.1 __ +2.3

 

blazess556 __ (-2%) ______ +1.1 ___ +1.3 ___ +1.0 _____ +0.7 __ --0.4 __ --0.6

 

Inudaw ________________ +1.1 ___ +0.9 ___ +0.5 _____ --0.8 __ --1.2 __ --1.5

 

andyhb _________________ +1.1 ___ +0.8 ___ +0.5 _____ +0.6 ___ +0.2 __ --0.3

 

Mike Ventrice ____________ +1.0 ___ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _____ +0.5 __ --0.2 __ --0.8

 

Chicago Wx _____________ +1.0 __ +1.0 ___ +1.5 ______ +1.5 __ +0.8 ___ +2.5

 

 

 

Consensus ______________ +1.0 __ +0.8 ___ +0.4 ______ +0.5 ___ 0.0 ___ +0.8

 

 

MN_Transplant __________ +0.9 ___ +0.7 ____ 0.0 _____  +2.0 ___ +1.0 __ +1.8

 

IntenseBlizzard2014 ______ +0.9 ___ +0.2 ___ --0.4 _____ --1.9 __ --2.1 __ --1.7

 

wxdude64 ______________ +0.5 ___ +0.4 ___ +0.4 _____ +0.1 ___ +0.3 __ +0.5

 

SD ____________________ +0.3 ___ +0.6 ___ --0.3 _____ --1.5 __ +0.5 __ +1.5

 

Isotherm _______________ +0.3 ___ +0.1 ___ +0.5 _____ +1.3 __ --0.4 __ +1.0

 

RodneyS _______________ +0.3 __ --0.8 ___ --0.4 _____ --0.7 __ --0.3 ___ +0.3         

 

Ellinwood _______________ +0.1 __ +0.2 ___ +0.4 ______ --0.3 ___ 0.0 ___ +0.7 

 

 

Normal __________________ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ______ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

 

 

skierinvermont ____ (-12%) __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 ___ +1.0 ______ +0.5 __ +1.0 __ +1.5

 

Chicago Storm ___________ --0.1 ____ 0.0 ___ +0.1 _____ +0.5 __ --0.2 ___ +0.3     

 

hudsonvalley21 ___ (-4%) __ --0.2 ___ +0.4 ___ +0.2 _____ --0.5 __ --0.4 __ --1.0  

 

Tom ____ (-10%) _________ --0.2 __ --0.5 __ --0.4 ______ +0.2 ___ +0.2 ___ +0.7

 

Uncle W ________________ --0.5 ___ --0.4 ___ +0.3 _____ +1.0 __ --0.5 ___ +1.0

 

Mallow _________________ --0.6 ___ --0.4 ___ --0.4 _____ --1.2 __ --0.8 ___ +1.1

 

Wx Hype ________________ --1.0 __ --2.1 ___ --2.5 _____ --0.9 ____ 0.0 ___ +1.9

 

_______________________________________________________

 

so far we have 28 forecasts, consensus is set at mean of 14th & 15th ranked.

 

Penalties are non-severe due to relaxed holiday rule, even if you remember to enter Tuesday morning, you're only at about 20% but the pace picks up.

 

Error fixed in met-366 and as usual I will check all entries around the 4th. (later edit, have now already checked them all, had to change what looked like a typo for Tom's IAH +.07 which I entered as +0.7 ... hope this is what was intended. Otherwise I hope this is all accurate now.