Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still looks like the NAM is on the torch side of guidance as compared to everything else. Speaking strictly at 850mb. SREFs have the 850 0c line like another 50-60mi E at 24h when compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS will come onboard even later. The two stooges of NCEP. I do worry about temps here, but someone to my NW is going to get blasted. Are you in MVegas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Horrific bust for DCA and Balt. Way to warm...all warnings canceled. yeah, sucks for snowlovers down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looking at the models I think we do just fine here. Maybe wet at the very start but I am going with 6-8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROBNE_15z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looking at the models I think we do just fine here. Maybe wet at the very start but I am going with 6-8 here. You are inland a bit so that will help. I have questions about my area only 3 miles NE of EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Shadowing in Tolland County? We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Blue Hill (KMQE) already receiving snow flurries and a gust of 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are out... 0.50" from SFM-CON-DDH 0.75" from PSM-MHT-AFN-BAF-HVN 1.00" from LWM-ORH-Old Lyme CT 1.50" from BOS-PVD-WST 2.00" from GHG-TAN-UUU and eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The hills in Somers, Stafford, Union & Woodstock are all several hundred feet higher. All in NE CT. In fact, the highest hill is 500' higher: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burley_Hill,_Connecticut The highest point in Rhode Island is Jerimoth Hill at 812' and it's actually lower in elevation than I am. I joked with my son when we visited the high point that we would be at a lower elevation than our house is. If Northeastern Connecticut gets up to 1,315' that's several hundred feet higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM run is just going to be silly with the precip. s/w better interacts this run. The elephant in the room is the 8h temps, but other than that all guns are a blazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wish I could believe the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM run is just going to be silly with the precip. s/w better interacts this run. The elephant in the room is the 8h temps, but other than that all guns are a blazing. I wonder if its an extremely thin layer of mid level warmth..like it was showing last night. If so we may be able to overcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are out... 0.50" from SFM-CON-DDH 0.75" from PSM-MHT-AFN-BAF-HVN 1.00" from LWM-ORH-Old Lyme CT 1.50" from BOS-PVD-WST 2.00" from GHG-TAN-UUU and eastward Nice increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiteboard Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still thinking this is the bigger headline for this event... ...COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION LIKELY DURING THEHIGH TIDES FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING....MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THEMASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAYEVENING HIGH TIDE...AND MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ISANTICIPATED FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THEMASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. THE STORM SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE2.5 TO 3 FEET AT MOST EAST COAST LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY REACH 25 TO30 FEET...HIGHEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THISCOULD BECOME A DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION ESPECIALLY SINCEMANY AREAS ARE STILL VULNERABLE AFTER THE FEBRUARY 9 STORM TIDE.THERE IS ALSO AN EROSION CONCERN FOR BLOCK ISLAND WHERE A COASTALFLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. THERE ARE SOME VULNERABLE AREASON BLOCK ISLAND DUE TO SANDY. This is what they do in Winthrop (Yirrell Beach) to brace for the storm. The other two attached pictures are from Nemo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I wonder if its an extremely thin layer of mid level warmth..like it was showing last night. If so we may be able to overcome it. Somehow you and I will be at 32.00001 and rain chutes late tonight...lol. I do worry about us, NW not so much. NAM says hold the phone on my top 10 storm. (aside of the warmth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is ridiculous here all snow and over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are out... 0.50" from SFM-CON-DDH 0.75" from PSM-MHT-AFN-BAF-HVN 1.00" from LWM-ORH-Old Lyme CT 1.50" from BOS-PVD-WST 2.00" from GHG-TAN-UUU and eastward Do you believe the N/W extent of the precip shield advertised there, and are there any possible nw outliers skewing? that's a little surprising but obviously good, lines up fairly well with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM run is just going to be silly with the precip. s/w better interacts this run. The elephant in the room is the 8h temps, but other than that all guns are a blazing. It's getting there on the thermal profile but still, we toss. It's magnitudes warmer than everything else at h85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is ridiculous here all snow and over an inch. Go with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 AG3 cleared it up............mis information was given out in the nyc thread earlier. saw that, had a feeling something like that was going on, I found it hard to believe that we got nothing tonight... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Good sign, I am on Rt 6 @198 in Chaplin (near IJD), and rain / snow mixed, and temp 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Go with the GFS. Its caving to the euro with every run, the ivt keeps creeping east, it will have the right idea by tomorrow.....over eastern new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hey I want to cover the bases for everyone on the 18z NAM: It's going east, southeast, northeast, north or somewhere in between. How does it compare at H5 to the 6z JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I mean really? Time to step away, too emotional lol, this run is absolutely ridiculous out west, give me a break, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A warning from sore miserable weenie the nam is wrong. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Are you in Stamford, CT? 3.5 - 10" for storm total and you go with 2.5" total or just from the initial coastal impact?? Do you have any elevation where you're at? I think I would go 1-4" storm total from south to north near the CT shore. Warm surface temps plus modest QPF. Yes, I'm in Stamford, only in Lake Placid some weekends for skiing. 2.5" is just for tonight, if I had to give one number for the trough I'd go 3.5" for 6" total. Some elevation, not too much, but we usually don't have temp issues the way parts of Long Island do... I think QPF is going to be a bigger problem than temps with this. I'm assuming that the 1-4" is for tonight only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I was just kidding anyways but yeah I trust your gut more than mine for sure.Nice SREFS run If I get 4-6 I'd be pretty thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You are inland a bit so that will help. I have questions about my area only 3 miles NE of EWB. Yeah, I think once we get the heavy stuff in here we do ok. I was good to see snow at exit 5 at 38 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If I get 4-6 I'd be pretty thrilled. me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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