SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now that I have correct EURO info, going 1.5-5" tonight, and 2-5" for the trough... (1.5-5" is a huge range, but I think it's just as likely that we get 1.5" as that we get 5". if I had to go with one number it would be around 2.5", I'm optimistic on this one, but I could bust easily.) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Are you sure? NYC forum says .32" on the EURO through 7AM tomorrow and another .4" after that, total is about .75" for the two events, and I would guess we are a bit higher out east. Is the cutoff with tonight so sharp that NYC gets .32 and we/I get nothing? -skisheep AG3 cleared it up............mis information was given out in the nyc thread earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggemp72072.gif The GGEM QPF seems like a reasonable compromise. Do we see 12" totals there? Ratios? QPF lost to rain or non-accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Based on http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?map=akq and this I'd say the firehose is overperforming so far. System is winding up quite nicely. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_006_precip_p06.gif Also, I'd say the NAM was doing okay with the track, GFS too far south again. Certainly so far bodes well for the more aggressive solutions. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_006_precip_p06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still thinking this is the bigger headline for this event... ...COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION LIKELY DURING THEHIGH TIDES FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING....MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THEMASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAYEVENING HIGH TIDE...AND MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ISANTICIPATED FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THEMASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. THE STORM SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE2.5 TO 3 FEET AT MOST EAST COAST LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY REACH 25 TO30 FEET...HIGHEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THISCOULD BECOME A DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION ESPECIALLY SINCEMANY AREAS ARE STILL VULNERABLE AFTER THE FEBRUARY 9 STORM TIDE.THERE IS ALSO AN EROSION CONCERN FOR BLOCK ISLAND WHERE A COASTALFLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. THERE ARE SOME VULNERABLE AREASON BLOCK ISLAND DUE TO SANDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now that I have correct EURO info, going 1.5-5" tonight, and 2-5" for the trough... (1.5-5" is a huge range, but I think it's just as likely that we get 1.5" as that we get 5". if I had to go with one number it would be around 2.5", I'm optimistic on this one, but I could bust easily.) -skisheep Are you in Stamford, CT? 3.5 - 10" for storm total and you go with 2.5" total or just from the initial coastal impact?? Do you have any elevation where you're at? I think I would go 1-4" storm total from south to north near the CT shore. Warm surface temps plus modest QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The Catskills may indeed be the place to be. BGM now has WWA for their eastern counties, with 4-7 inches forecast IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BTW, NCEP Diagnostic said toss the NAM, they didn't like the kidney bean structured low. Ironically that's what SPC is analyzing. And the RAP at 18z 0h FTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 spc wrf is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Imby question. Why wouldn't the hills in NE Ct do well on easterly upslope? They're higher than NW Ri by several hundred feet at least. I understand on a NE flow but on an east flow why wouldn't our hills also do the same? You aren't high enough over the RI hills to benefit from it and are too far removed from them...if you sat at 1,000 feet 5-10 miles west of them you would be a lot better off and really benefit...you will do OK, but a lot of the precip gets wrung out before it reaches your area from a strict upslope perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You aren't high enough over the RI hills to benefit from it and are too far removed from them...if you sat at 1,000 feet 5-10 miles west of them you would be a lot better off and really benefit...you will do OK, but a lot of the precip gets wrung out before it reaches your area from a strict upslope perspective. and you're not several hundred feet higher http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerimoth_Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 devastating bust for portions of the M/A. Have to feel a little heavy hearted for those folk. However, as they say.."hope" should be left for church on Sundays. It doesn't belong in forecasting, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the euro has nearly due north surface winds. Will upslope be much of a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Storm is 600 miles away and were gettimg gusts p here in the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The euro is really cold...i'm not sure a bad boundary layer is a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think Foxborough could get smoked...back into Accordian Champion's BY in N RI. BOS def has more Scooter cuation flags, but I'd be hitting it hard for interior SE MA...esp areas that have elevation like Foxborough. NW RI could do very well also...they are a pretty good upslope spot on easterly flow. Back at my house? 4-8? 5-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the euro has nearly due north surface winds. Will upslope be much of a factor? If the LLJ between 925-850 is more out of the east or northeast then it still becomes a factor due to friction. But as the sfc wind turns more northerly, the effect will def diminish. Its greatest impact is early on. Its also more of a factor in events where we don't have larger scale lifting mechanisms like a big mesoband from ML fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Back at my house? 4-8? 5-10? I have you in the 4-8 realm. What you thinking for PSU? I think they'll be lucky if they see 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Back at my house? 4-8? 5-10? I'm bullish...6-10"...lower end prob down near the lake, higher end near center of town? I think double digits are a solid possibility further W in the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREFs beefed up qpf...first run in a while where it did that. We went like 3 or 4 runs in a row where it cut back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREFs beefed up qpf...first run in a while where it did that. We went like 3 or 4 runs in a row where it cut back. All around or exclusively in SE MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 All around or exclusively in SE MA? Everywhere in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still thinking this is the bigger headline for this event... ...COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION LIKELY DURING THEHIGH TIDES FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING....MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THEMASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAYEVENING HIGH TIDE...AND MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ISANTICIPATED FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THEMASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. THE STORM SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE2.5 TO 3 FEET AT MOST EAST COAST LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY REACH 25 TO30 FEET...HIGHEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THISCOULD BECOME A DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION ESPECIALLY SINCEMANY AREAS ARE STILL VULNERABLE AFTER THE FEBRUARY 9 STORM TIDE.THERE IS ALSO AN EROSION CONCERN FOR BLOCK ISLAND WHERE A COASTALFLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. THERE ARE SOME VULNERABLE AREASON BLOCK ISLAND DUE TO SANDY. Yea.....this the culmination of a 5 month assault, headed by Sandy and the blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 devastating bust for portions of the M/A. Have to feel a little heavy hearted for those folk. However, as they say.."hope" should be left for church on Sundays. It doesn't belong in forecasting, that's for sure. Thought many down there are getting hammered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Everywhere in SNE. Thanks. This storm manages to keep itself an interesting forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm bullish...6-10"...lower end prob down near the lake, higher end near center of town? I think double digits are a solid possibility further W in the ORH hills. 2-5" here....not final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Western burbs of DC did quite well actually and many areas in WV are in the 12-17 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I agree with Will and Ryan with weenie Foxboro and the areas Rollo outlined too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 2-5" here....not final call. You should be able to wetbulb nicely I moisture can reach you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You aren't high enough over the RI hills to benefit from it and are too far removed from them...if you sat at 1,000 feet 5-10 miles west of them you would be a lot better off and really benefit...you will do OK, but a lot of the precip gets wrung out before it reaches your area from a strict upslope perspective. Also look at it from a cross-barrier flow potential... the NE CT hills aren't as much north-south running as further north along the ORH hills, they bend SW-NE axis in CT on a topo-map. I'd assume a southerly flow to SSE/SE would do them much better than a more true easterly component just looking at the geography. You want the most change in elevation as possible and you want it to be perpendicular to the prolonged flow. So like sea level to 700ft is going to give a terrain change of 700ft, rather than 700-1000ft which is only 300ft. Plus anything upstream always sort of hampers any enhancement downstream...similar to why the Worcester Ridgeline (3-3,600ft ridgeline up here, parallel to the true Spine but east) gets like half the snow that the actual Green Mountain Spine gets, even though its a very lofty N-S ridgeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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