ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREFs were awful They've been pretty terrible all winter. They did ok in the blizzard...but I def do not trust them. I'd prob hit the Euro hard and maybe warm the thermal profiles just a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Listen...I'm not trolling at all, I swear to GOD. I hope you guys do better than us (well, some of you I hope for, others not so much). But don't trust the NAM thermals. Just don't. Other than that, good luck to you all. I could not love your avatar and the text below it more. Hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not feeling it for my area. Itmight be cold enough with the el...but QPF and the drawn out aspect have me getting my shawl and diet coke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks, sorry it didn't work out. What was the biggest problem with the NAM? Obviously too wet, but too warm or too cold? NAM too cold. GFS moved too cold and too wet. No area is the same, so it may do better up there. They've been pretty terrible all winter. They did ok in the blizzard...but I def do not trust them. I'd prob hit the Euro hard and maybe warm the thermal profiles just a hair. Smart man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For whatever reason, we can't trust the more mesoscale guidance lately except to time seabreezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yea, that is what I gathered....Will said that they had beefed up. They beefed up their 24h qpf...I was looking at the early ncep maps which only have 24h precip and not total precip. Basically it means the SREFs had a heavier period of precip in there vs the 09z run...even if total precip was perhaps 2% less than 09z. Regardless, it means absolutely nothing in the scheme of things...at least from my own forecasting perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Really, Chaplin is a cool place , love the little rivers around there. One of my good friends runs the packy. What is you forecast for Ledyard area by the way? A little tonight, 1-2, perhaps 3" tonight, another 1-3" tomorrow night. I'm going to hopefully put together two separate maps once I review more data, so don't hold me to those numbers right now. The one map is kind of misleading since some daytime melting and compaction takes place tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I could not love your avatar and the text below it more. Hilarious. I got an extra ticket for Mahler's 3rd in Boston on the 29th..wanna go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why is the NAM constantly throwing that piece of moisture down towards New York City and around to Pennsylvania? It's trying to give NYC 20 Bleeping inches of Snow now!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Will, please tell me the Nam is out to lunch with qpf out here, thanks. It's out to lunch, but looking at radar it seems to be right on with the coastal, although it's trough it just absurd. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The RPM is a riot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why is the NAM constantly throwing that piece of moisture down towards New York City and around to Pennsylvania? It's trying to give NYC 20 Bleeping inches of Snow now!!!! Largely because it sucks. (kidding, there's going to be a pretty intense band as the other s/w approaches...haven't been paying attention but I'm sure Ryan and Quincy have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The RPM is a riot. What's it got? I'm at work righ tnow and can't log in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What's it got? I'm at work righ tnow and can't log in. EWB to Attlehole jackpot of near 3' lol. Ray swallows an uzi with 10".You get almost 16" similar to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yes, I'm in Stamford, only in Lake Placid some weekends for skiing. 2.5" is just for tonight, if I had to give one number for the trough I'd go 3.5" for 6" total. Some elevation, not too much, but we usually don't have temp issues the way parts of Long Island do... I think QPF is going to be a bigger problem than temps with this. I'm assuming that the 1-4" is for tonight only? I was thinking storm total. Obviously the NAM would suggest that is too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 EWB to Attlehole jackpot of near 3' lol. Ray swallows an uzi with 10".You get almost 16" similar to BOS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 The RPM is a riot. Please post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I can't wait to read Uptons take around 430 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 EWB to Attlehole jackpot of near 3' lol. Ray swallows an uzi with 10".You get almost 16" similar to BOS. My god. They might as well add it to the suite of super weenie ARW members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I have no clue what will happen. You almost have to go with climo and gut. Models will be totally off with thermal fields if they are off with the precip. Oye Vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My god. They might as well add it to the suite of super weenie ARW members I would not believe that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 18z hi res is a hoot, who knows at this point guys, really hard not to trust the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I was thinking storm total. Obviously the NAM would suggest that is too low. I think everything suggests that that's too low, what guidance did you base that off of? Even the EURO has .8" liquid, I fail to see how that translates to 1". -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Check out the green sliver right over Tolland, lol. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamp72_NE072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I can't wait to read Uptons take around 430 I don't envy them right now one bit, this is a really tricky forecast for down here. My guess is that they hold roughly serve on their map, maybe drop totals a bit. They were riding the EURO pretty hard, intresting to see if they keep it despite some pointing out it's flaws down south compared to radar... I'd go 50/50 EURO/everything else, but who knows at this point, time to watch and let it all unfold... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 scary thing is the NAM was too cold down south. It would really blow if we got 2.5" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why is the NAM constantly throwing that piece of moisture down towards New York City and around to Pennsylvania? It's trying to give NYC 20 Bleeping inches of Snow now!!!! Are you crazy? I'm not sure the NAM gives NYC much snow at all. Model QPF does not equal snow. The first 24 to 30 hours on the NAM are probably rain/non accumulating snow for the NYC area. It's just too warm in the lowest levels. Thereafter it could snow if rates are heavy like the NAM shows, but we're talking 6:1 or 8:1 ratios. 6" would be a huge accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro has Maine hardly getting anything, only 3" in a very small portion of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't envy them right now one bit, this is a really tricky forecast for down here. My guess is that they hold roughly serve on their map, maybe drop totals a bit. They were riding the EURO pretty hard, intresting to see if they keep it despite some pointing out it's flaws down south compared to radar... I'd go 50/50 EURO/everything else, but who knows at this point, time to watch and let it all unfold... -skisheep upton dropped out east held west maybe upped a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Check out the green sliver right over Tolland, lol. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamp72_NE072.gif Man.. what's up with that? Isnt that east of the valley? Why does that show you getting shadowed more than me? Dont really understand that qpf distro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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