Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's almost 25% of winters since 1950 ... pretty amazing, I never would have guessed one in four had less snow than this one up to this point. December snows were pretty rare in the 70s and 80s. We've had a lot lately so people think we should've had 2 feet of snow by this point when normal is really only about 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 No real snow till about Jan. 26 it seems. The colder model runs have little precipitation to offer up as snow and the wetter runs have the higher temperatures. Looks like a trend to expect when considering the ENSO state, MJO phase, a PV which is healing itself back together and teleconnections that stink. We need an accident as in 'even a blind squirrel with a stuffy nose can find the nut sometimes'. The gfs disagrees with all of this...not saying your wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Gefs also disagree and ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The last 10 days of January through "Prime Time" Feb 5 - 11 is going to deliver the goods around the metro - a few indicies moving in the right direction along with the MJO entering favorable snowy cold phases 7 , 8 ,1 and the COD 1977 -78 analog is still favored http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Neg nao that is a serious if not total misread of what that MJO plot us showing. Talk about snow goggles...LOL...to begin with notice how the impulse is weakening as it moves to Phase 7 8 & 1.this is actually serious weakening over the past couple days. Still not sure how you get 77-78 out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Gefs also disagree and ggem you are missing the point. Snow storms do not happen because of weather models. The atmospheric conditions have to be in place First. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's almost 25% of winters since 1950 ... pretty amazing, I never would have guessed one in four had less snow than this one up to this point. I think the real number is 16 of 54...five or six had only a trace until Jan 12th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyone know where I can find a real time QBO ( say most recently at about -25 or so and going the wrong way) index site? Or are you suppose to wait for the beginning of the next month and get a 30 day average? I have seen a monthly chart going back to about 1948 but no real time info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Neg nao that is a serious if not total misread of what that MJO plot us showing. Talk about snow goggles...LOL...to begin with notice how the impulse is weakening as it moves to Phase 7 8 & 1.this is actually serious weakening over the past couple days. Still not sure how you get 77-78 out of this I am sticking to what I mentioned earlier - 7 - 8 - 1 - COD = snowy cold and alot of folks here including a MET or 2 agree - 1977 -78 the MJO is not a good match BUTthis winter is behaving similar to 77 -78 so far - I believe we will get at least 2 MECS - maybe a KU ? along the east coast during the time period I mentioned -Jan 23rd through Feb 11 - you can already see the last few GFS runs hinting at a more active storm track along the coast. AO is going down towards neutral NAO is going toward neutral and so is the PNA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml 1977 -78 NYC Snowfall 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 Total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I am sticking to what I mentioned earlier - 7 - 8 - 1 - COD = snowy cold and alot of folks here including a MET or 2 agree - 1977 -78 the MJO is not a good match BUT I believe we will get at least 2 MECS - maybe a KU ? along the east coast during the time period I mentioned -Jan 23rd through Feb 11 - you can already see the last few GFS runs hinting at a more active storm track along the coast. AO is going down towards neutral NAO is going toward neutral and so is the PNA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml A bit aggressive, but there is reason for optimism no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I am sticking to what I mentioned earlier - 7 - 8 - 1 - COD = snowy cold and alot of folks here including a MET or 2 agree - 1977 -78 the MJO is not a good match BUTthis winter is behaving similar to 77 -78 so far - I believe we will get at least 2 MECS - maybe a KU ? along the east coast during the time period I mentioned -Jan 23rd through Feb 11 - you can already see the last few GFS runs hinting at a more active storm track along the coast. AO is going down towards neutral NAO is going toward neutral and so is the PNA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml 1977 -78 NYC Snowfall 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 Total the ao was near record low levels in early February that year and the downward trend started in mid January...So far the ao has been way over what it was in 1978...not to mention the nao being way positive...todays forecast backed off a bit from yesterdays for a negative ao...maybe we can squeak in a February 1994 storm to raise snow totals to near normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Nick Gregory acknowledged the upcoming pattern change saying we have to be on the look out for multiple threats starting next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Joe Cioffi has an interesting update: http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/european.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 JB says the QBO is concerning him with regarding to east coast snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 JB says the QBO is concerning him with regarding to east coast snows... Relax . He got that from me . And no he did not , He said he missed that in Dec and the first half of Jan . Will you please sit back and enjoy this pattern . It has sucked here all year and we finally have stuff to track and your still nuts. Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Relax . He got that from me . And no he did not , He said he missed that in Dec and the first half of Jan . Will you please sit back and enjoy this pattern . It has sucked here all year and we finally have stuff to track and your still nuts. Chill. give me 6 inches of snow and I will! Lol. Funny, he didn't give you credit in the video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 give me 6 inches of snow and I will! Lol. Funny, he didn't give you credit in the video! Next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Relax . He got that from me . And no he did not , He said he missed that in Dec and the first half of Jan . Will you please sit back and enjoy this pattern . It has sucked here all year and we finally have stuff to track and your still nuts. Chill. Forgive my ignorance, are you the famous "Pauly the blog observer?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And here's Joe Cioffi's sobering take on the newer model runs . . . http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And here's Joe Cioffi's sobering take on the newer model runs . . . http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html Sobering indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Sobering indeed He had a highly amusing comment beneath his initial FB post: "The 6z gfs started the broad scale flip and yes it could be one of those mid range hiccups. But im getting an increasing sense that while the fat lady has not sung her aria, she is clearing her throat." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And here's Joe Cioffi's sobering take on the newer model runs . . . http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html IMO, one should resist the temptation to swing wildly from one model run to the next when volatility in the guidance is so high. Staying with the ensembles and any more stable guidance is a better approach during such uncertainty. Just imagine the following scenario: Sunday-Monday Forecasts for New York City: Made: 1/16 6 am: Mainly cloudy with a shower or two. (6z GFS forecast: 0.02") Made: 1/16 12 pm: Rainy and windy. Rainfall amounts will range from 1"-2" (12z GFS forecast: 1.53") Had one followed the GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles, and ECMWF (which have displayed better run-to-run continuity), both forecasts would have been: Rainy and windy. Rainfall in excess of 1" is possible. I realize that the temptation to swing from model run to model run can be high. But during bad run-to-run continuity, it makes little sense. The same holds true in any probibilistic excercise when the uncertainty is particularly high. It's no surprisie that, for example, the NHC doesn't shift its hurricane tracks substantially from run-to-run. Instead, it makes more modest changes until over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And here's Joe Cioffi's sobering take on the newer model runs . . . http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html Just curious of the sentiment up here...his last sentence stated this "the average for those winters is around 19. As of right now it is getting harder and harder to argue against that outcome" Come mid-March wouldn't 19" be a huge victory from where things stand now? Or would 19" be just an awful winter which doesn't happen very often for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 IMO, one should resist the temptation to swing wildly from one model run to the next when volatility in the guidance is so high. Staying with the ensembles and any more stable guidance is a better approach during such uncertainty. Just imagine the following scenario: Sunday-Monday Forecasts for New York City: Made: 1/16 6 am: Mainly cloudy with a shower or two. (6z GFS forecast: 0.02") Made: 1/16 12 pm: Rainy and windy. Rainfall amounts will range from 1"-2" (12z GFS forecast: 1.53") Had one followed the GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles, and ECMWF (which have displayed better run-to-run continuity), both forecasts would have been: Rainy and windy. Rainfall in excess of 1" is possible. I realize that the temptation to swing from model run to model run can be high. But during bad run-to-run continuity, it makes little sense. The same holds true in any probibilistic excercise when the uncertainty is particularly high. It's no surprisie that, for example, the NHC doesn't shift its hurricane tracks substantially from run-to-run. Instead, it makes more modest changes until over time. I agree with you, but in this winter, things have trended badly for snow-lovers. I'm not surprised the models seem to be swinging in this direction. This winter just stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I agree with you, but in this winter, things have trended badly for snow-lovers. I'm not surprised the models seem to be swinging in this direction. This winter just stinks.and tomorrow marks yet another warm up and rain event-amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I agree with you, but in this winter, things have trended badly for snow-lovers. I'm not surprised the models seem to be swinging in this direction. This winter just stinks.Yeah it stinks but it happens. Mets are gonna take a lot of heat after nearly unanimous agreement on a cold, snowy winter but it'll only make future forecasts better. They will learn from their mistakes as will we.This winter is what last winter was supposed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Forgive my ignorance, are you the famous "Pauly the blog observer?" Yes. He has a few other names for me but that's the one he uses the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 This first guess is bad guessing in the NYC metro - DT should know better for instance if southern somerset county NJ is in the 1 -3 inch category northern middlesex above the raritan and points north through NE NJ should be too - or put southern somerset in the 1 inch category.......... https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/806327076081219/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 This first guess is bad guessing in the NYC metro - DT should know better for instance if southern somerset county NJ is in the 1 -3 inch category northern middlesex above the raritan and points north through NE NJ should be too - or put southern somerset in the 1 inch category.......... https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/806327076081219/?type=1&theater Yeah and his 1-3 is way too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah and his 1-3 is way too far south It will be interesting to see what verfies. Mt Holly NWS is going with almost the entire event as rain. Possible flurries at the end in NNJ. GFS & NAM both indicate that NW NJ in my area swithces over to snow at some point. This occurs about 50% of the time and we get a few inches at the end. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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