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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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 I care. I'm definitely liking the cold, whether there's wintry precip or not.

I'm OK with it too Larry, although I am starting to get Spring Fever. I just don't want oppressive heat like we had last year. I'm over the heat.

 

And at least we have a few interesting things to track, it's better than warm and dry IMHO. 

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Damn Groundhog was (will be) wrong. 12z GFS at dat 15.

 

Looks to be setting up nicely for our upcoming April Fool's Blizzard! ;)  :lmao:

 

Haha, just kidding.

 

As far as the "cold" this March; let's be honest.  How cold is it really?  Sure, it's strongly negative departures for normal, but we're talking about highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/30s, which is warmer than our mid-January temperatures.  And with full sunshine, a high of 50 this time of year feels pretty warm, even if it's a -12 departure from our average (here at the moment it is 62/40).  I just don't understand all the complaints about it.  It feels pretty nice to me.  You can have your 90s and high humidity all summer.  I'll enjoy my 50s while I can.

 

With that being said, the cold this March has been impressive.  It would be nice to pull out a wintry event from it, but even so it's one of the better Marches in recent memory.  Even 2009 and 2010 torched after our initial winter storms during the first few days of the month, IIRC.

 

Tomorrow's cold looks impressive.  We may not get out of the upper 30s under full sunshine!

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Looks to be setting up nicely for our upcoming April Fool's Blizzard! ;)  :lmao:

 

Haha, just kidding.

 

As far as the "cold" this March; let's be honest.  How cold is it really?  Sure, it's strongly negative departures for normal, but we're talking about highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/30s, which is warmer than our mid-January temperatures.  And with full sunshine, a high of 50 this time of year feels pretty warm, even if it's a -12 departure from our average (here at the moment it is 62/40).  I just don't understand all the complaints about it.  It feels pretty nice to me.  You can have your 90s and high humidity all summer.  I'll enjoy my 50s while I can.

 

With that being said, the cold this March has been impressive.  It would be nice to pull out a wintry event from it, but even so it's one of the better Marches in recent memory.  Even 2009 and 2010 torched after our initial winter storms during the first few days of the month, IIRC.

 

Tomorrow's cold looks impressive.  We may not get out of the upper 30s under full sunshine!

 

That's my problem with it, it's not impressive in any way, doesn't really do anything other than make me wear a jacket in the morning.  No, I'm not looking for 90s heat either, but I'm ready to enjoy a nice upper 60s/low 70s spring about now, where I can open the windows in the car/house.  This ultra blocking/below normal just makes things uncomfortable for nothing IMO.   Add rain to that equation and it's just blah...no offense Cold Rain.  

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That's my problem with it, it's not impressive in any way, doesn't really do anything other than make me wear a jacket in the morning. No, I'm not looking for 90s heat either, but I'm ready to enjoy a nice upper 60s/low 70s spring about now, where I can open the windows in the car/house. This ultra blocking/below normal just makes things uncomfortable for nothing IMO. Add rain to that equation and it's just blah...no offense Cold Rain.

Ha! I completely agree with you. I'm ready for spring and ready to put this abysmal train wreck dumpster fire winter behind us.

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That's my problem with it, it's not impressive in any way, doesn't really do anything other than make me wear a jacket in the morning.  No, I'm not looking for 90s heat either, but I'm ready to enjoy a nice upper 60s/low 70s spring about now, where I can open the windows in the car/house.  This ultra blocking/below normal just makes things uncomfortable for nothing IMO.   Add rain to that equation and it's just blah...no offense Cold Rain.  

 

If the blocking holds well into April this will be one of those years without a true spring.  At least how we usually think of spring in these parts.  Instead of several weeks of highs in the upper sixties and 70s we will remain cool until the pattern suddenly breaks and we skip right to the 80s.

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I care. I'm definitely liking the cold, whether there's wintry precip or not. Not everyone feels the same way as you. That being said, I don't take offense that you don't like it cold and dry. It is a matter of personal preference.

Yeah I actually like the unusual cold this time of the year. Low of 36 tonight which is exceptionally cold here for Spring. Average low is 50.

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why would someone want to make the same posts over and over? What a waste.

Short term memory malfunction?

Hi, I'm Brick. Cold and dreary is a waste and the models can't be trusted.

Hi, I'm Brick. Cold and dreary is a waste and the models can't be trusted.

Hi, I'm Brick. Cold and dr....

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If it is a trend to a Summer 09, then I will put up with it.

Best summer for fishing EVER.....lots of backdoor fronts keeping the wind wind N or NE so that kept the north side of the Pamilco river/sound flat and more oftan than not it was cloudy and cool. We killed the flounder, specks and drum that year. It basically looked like this all summer on the river/sound, and we got to see several weak waterspouts....

 

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2007 had a warm spring, an early leafout and then a huge cold snap April 6-7 that brought accumulating snow then 18f in Orange county. Unfortunately that was the last meaningful moisture to fall until October in that hot azz summer.

I read some sort of study once that said that the massive freeze that wiped out the foliage contributed to the drought.  Something about the the lack of shade when the weather warmed up helping the moisture in the earth evaporate.  I don't remember the exact details but it made sense and we all know that droughts have a way of prolonging themselves.

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I read some sort of study once that said that the massive freeze that wiped out the foliage contributed to the drought.  Something about the the lack of shade when the weather warmed up helping the moisture in the earth evaporate.  I don't remember the exact details but it made sense and we all know that droughts have a way of prolonging themselves.

That would be a neat study to read. The first set of leaves on most trees died during the freeze. The long term drought killed the second set on many others.

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Man, why couldn't we have had this pattern in January. The below is the 12z GFS at 192 hours. It also shows potential storms after this that would have been real winter storm potentials if not for the time of year. One positive, we now know this type of pattern is still possible (..from not seeing it the last two years).

 

gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Man, why couldn't we have had this pattern in January. The below is the 12z GFS at 192 hours. It also shows potential storms after this that would have been real winter storm potentials if not for the time of year. One positive, we now know this type of pattern is still possible (..from not seeing it the last two years).

gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

We had that pattern all January. It resulted in a fabulous NE winter.

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That would be a neat study to read. The first set of leaves on most trees died during the freeze. The long term drought killed the second set on many others.

That summer was about the most depressing I have ever seen.  As an avid gardener I watched all of my plants die at Easter and then the next round die in June.  On top of that the lakes were drying up.  

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Temps in the 80s aren't too bad. Now, the 90s would be a different story. But I'm talking about spring like temps near 70. That is awesome and would be a lot better than 40s and rain, which we already had a lot of in the winter.

 

Here it is March 26 and in WNC nothing but relentless cold, wind, more wind with wind (did I say wind), rain, clouds, and now watching a windy flizzard for the second consecutive morning outside my window.  No, I do not want to see snow; I want spring.  The pay back is the mountain summers are milder so if we can't have spring, bring on summer.

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I must say that that storm on April 4th would have me really interested.  Well, except for the fact that it's April.  :axe:

 

April snows bring dead May flowers is my mantra this year.

 

Raleigh saw 10" of snow on April 3rd, 1915.  It's been 98 years and if we make the assumption that it's a one-in-a-hundred year event, we're due.  Right?  :weenie:  :lmao:  :lmao:

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65-70 Mon-Tues? This will be interesting

 

I am joking about the storm. :D

 

Actually, I was looking over the 18z GEFS individual member clown maps and a surprising number of the members showed accumulating snowfall across various portions of NC.  Four or five showed accumulating snows (really a Big Daddy in the foothills/mountains) from basically 79W-westward and one member even had a decent snowfall for SE NC.

 

Of course, none of that really matters and I have very little faith in getting a snowfall in April, but it was somewhat surprising, though probably just off their collective rocker.

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