calculus1 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Alright, I can't believe I'm posting this, but it is out at only 144 hours on the ECMWF. This is as far into the future as wunderground will show us. North MS/AL/GA/SC looking good at this point. Sure wish I could see the hours beyond. These are three-hour snow totals, by the way, if that wasn't clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudcrash619 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 The latest I've ever seen snow in my life is March 15, I hope I can set a new record for myself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 The latest I've ever seen snow in my life is March 15, I hope I can set a new record for myself lol Birmingham, AL saw 5"+ of snow from what I believe was a ULL on April 3rd, 1988. You just never know! Ive got two if you want one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Birthday plans for next weekend look ruined thanks. I expect 70 degree weather in late March. We have it suppressed enough to allow for some north trends to make it a NC north threat leading up to it. I probably won't bite until Tuesday. Anything to ruin your birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudcrash619 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Forecast for Thursday night is rain and upper 30's. I don't really think it's going to get cold enough. Just a cold rain :/ If this were January, or even February it would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 They just forecast conservitvely , they will ratchet down temps as it gets closer. Forecast for Thursday night is rain and upper 30's. I don't really think it's going to get cold enough. Just a cold rain :/ If this were January, or even February it would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Birmingham, AL saw 5"+ of snow from what I believe was a ULL on April 3rd, 1988. You just never know! yep I think that was when here in Asheville we got about 12 inches out of that storm. was wearing shorts like today like the day or two before the storm hit. heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Dgex drops 2 to 6 inches of snow across northern AL/GA/SC Friday morning with surface temps in the low 30’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Birthday plans for next weekend look ruined thanks. I expect 70 degree weather in late March. We have it suppressed enough to allow for some north trends to make it a NC north threat leading up to it. I probably won't bite until Tuesday. Ruined?!?! I would take snow on my 16th birthday any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Ruined?!?! I would take snow on my 16th birthday any day! Yep, I can remember my 16th birthday......over 30 years ago now. Congrats to Wilkes on his 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 good god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Ruined?!?! I would take snow on my 16th birthday any day! Amen. Unfortunately, I'd have to move to the Southern Hemisphere to see snow on my birthday (July 6th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 good god Nice track. 12z showed the same thing. Surface temps above freezing though for much of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Wow, the 18z GFS is a megasnowstorm, LOL. Bizarre run. Surface temps are probably an issue, but 850s aren't. That's like 2" of QPF in total. Sign me up. Even with the surface temps factored in, the 18z GFS clown maps still print out some high-quality porn. I'm saving this. It's not too often we see these runs in late March, haha. Unfortunately (for me, anyways), the first system around the 21st-22nd stays suppressed. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Wow, the 18z GFS is a megasnowstorm, LOL. Bizarre run. Surface temps are probably an issue, but 850s aren't. That's like 2" of QPF in total. Sign me up.Why couldn't this come in January? Lol. Navgem had megasnowstorm for the NE fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudcrash619 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 good god I would be excited just to see flurries in late March, so I'll definitely take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Why couldn't this come in January? Lol. Navgem had megasnowstorm for the NE fwiw It really is unfortunate, but if it decides to come in late March, I'll take it. Can't be too picky in the SE! As a bit of a snow cover weenie, March snowstorms do come up a bit short, but I'll take snow anytime of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Birthday plans for next weekend look ruined thanks. I expect 70 degree weather in late March. We have it suppressed enough to allow for some north trends to make it a NC north threat leading up to it. I probably won't bite until Tuesday. Whom are you kidding. You bit HOOK LINE and SINKER ! Snow maps all around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Alright, I can't believe I'm posting this, but it is out at only 144 hours on the ECMWF. This is as far into the future as wunderground will show us. North MS/AL/GA/SC looking good at this point. Sure wish I could see the hours beyond. These are three-hour snow totals, by the way, if that wasn't clear. Oh crud...I'm in the bulls eye. Well that seals it for me. I will not see any snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The euro ensemble mean drobs about .4to .5 here in Franklin. Looks to be all snow too. Thats very bullish for an ensemble mean at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Oh crud...I'm in the bulls eye. Well that seals it for me. I will not see any snow from this.not surprising as your new location has worked great for you. What is your average snowfall there? I figure you get 6-8 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Today was beautiful! Get those clown maps outa here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The euro ensemble mean drobs about .4to .5 here in Franklin. Looks to be all snow too. Thats very bullish for an ensemble mean at day 6. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1159 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013 VALID 12Z TUE MAR 19 2013 - 12Z SAT MAR 23 2013 ...OVERVIEW... THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE TWO ROBUST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND OVER THE NORTH POLE THAT SHOULD MERGE OVER NORTHERN GREENLAND/CANADIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. END RESULT IN THIS VERY NEGATIVE AO PATTERN WOULD BE TO FAVOR COOLING CONUS TEMPS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN US UNDERNEATH HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKING WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE BELT OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS WITH DECENT AMPLITUDE. ...MODEL PREFERENCES... WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 5-WAY COMPOSITE OF THE 06 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/CMC/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INTO MIDWEEK...BUT LATER BECOME LESS AGREEABLE. THE MOST CHANGEABLE PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FRI-SAT/D6-7. THE ECMWF AND ITS MEAN HAVE SHOWED A MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE SRN PLAINS TO THE SERN US COMPARED TO RECENT GFS/CMC RUNS. GEFS/CMC/NAEFS MEANS FALL SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SUPPRESSION IN RECENT RUNS. EVEN SO...THE GFS AND CMC HAS SHIFTED SOME FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE THRU THE SRN/SERN US RATHER THAN THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND THAT TREND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHOULD SUPPORT FORCING ENERGIES EWD RATHER THAN NEWD. INCORPORATING SOME WEIGHTING TO THE GFS/GEFS/CMC IN THE WPC BLEND LEFT MORE ROOM FOR ME TO INCLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED LOW TRACK THAN THE EC/EC ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE SRN/SERN US TIER IN POSITION CONSISTENT WITH A DECENT CLUSTER OF GFS/CMC/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... AFTER A SHORT RANGE HEAVY PCPN/INTERIOR NERN US HEAVY SNOW EPISODE INTO TUE...PLEASE SEE WPC SHORT TERM WINTER WEATHER AND QPF PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS...THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EMPHASIS OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST MIDWEEK BUT KEEP LAKE EFFECT FAVORED AREAS COLD AND UNSETTLED WITH CONDITIONS WITH SNOW DIMINISHING LATE WEEK. IN ITS WAKE AND WITH REINFORCING SHOTS...COOLING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE W-CENTRAL THRU ERN US. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...SFC SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW EJECTING FROM NEAR HAWAII IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD FIND ITS WAY TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND ON A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY...BUT FORECAST SPREAD IS NOW REDUCED. A TRAILING FRONTAL PUSH AND MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD MODEST TO TERRAIN ENHANCED QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST /EXCEPT THE SW DESERTS/ INTO WED/THU MIDWEEK BEFORE TRANSLATING EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE...PRECIP FOCUS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ABOUT 35N...WITH SNOW/ICE THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND DEEPEST REBOUNDING MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENITAL FED INTO/OVER OF WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/SERN US TIER. SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Wow, the 18z GFS is a megasnowstorm, LOL. Bizarre run. Surface temps are probably an issue, but 850s aren't. That's like 2" of QPF in total. Sign me up. Even with the surface temps factored in, the 18z GFS clown maps still print out some high-quality porn. I'm saving this. It's not too often we see these runs in late March, haha. Unfortunately (for me, anyways), the first system around the 21st-22nd stays suppressed. We'll see. Really? I doubt it will happen, but to be honest I am ready for more days like today and don't want to see anymore cold until next winter. This will probably either end up too warm, not have enough precip, or move north like everything else did this winter. And if we just get some cool rain out of this like we have all winter, I'd rather just past. This is like the girl you could never leave behind, and once you're ready to move on from her, she comes back in your life again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Day 7 from WPC... http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/716/9nhwbgconus.gif/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Gawx should get a job at a NWS office if we get a widespread snowstorm out of this. His use of statistics/analogs have proven more credible than any other respected met’s long range forecasts. Don't be tempting CrossRoads with a job...we've already lost a lot of Robert's time to the work a day world. We need Larry right here Anyway, I think the Gov already has him set in his Dickensian warren, with his Cray computers, and abacus.....and the lure of ice cream to keep him busy, lol. I've seen snow on the grass in April, so a March snow is no big shakes. But a wide spread one would be more unusual. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 This definitely makes for an odd board dynamic -- we've been burned so many times, it's hard to even consider seeing snow in late March. Yet. the Euro is nothing to be trifled with when it is consistently showing a solution. At the very least, it's going to be shockingly chilly next weekend, compared to what I just played golf in. I'm nowhere near as enamored with the Euro as most, but I do agree that when it seems dialed in, it performs well. There is that time last winter where it showed snow for several runs and multiple days but it never even came close, so I'm curious to see where it finishes with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm nowhere near as enamored with the Euro as most, but I do agree that when it seems dialed in, it performs well. There is that time last winter where it showed snow for several runs and multiple days but it never even came close, so I'm curious to see where it finishes with this one. There is also that time where it nailed Sandy 8 days out. Exact landfall and pressure almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 00z GFS looks warmer and drier for the "first" event next week. Same book, different chapter? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 00z GFS looks warmer and drier for the "first" event next week. Same book, different chapter? TW It looks cold enough up in our neck of the woods, but it's too suppressed. The 00z GFS is going to slam us with the second system, though. Oh, my! Textbook track right from the Gulf to Jacksonville, FL. EDIT: Well, assuming surface temperatures are okay, of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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