ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 If it were only a month ago...I would be a little squeamish forecasting any snow outside of higher elevations at this point. It is certainly the most interesting look since Jan 2011, tho...I really wanted to start thinking about lake weather too...guess we get one more ride this week. Was this an attempt to troll the board? It seems you have a history of trolling since you've previously only selectively posted your Euro weekly info when those charts projected warm instead of cold in the middle of winter. I know this from casually reading this board since '10 and I'm positive I recall only warm ECMWF weekly posts from Mr. Bob. Delta has noticed the same. Yet, now you wait until mid-March to jump on a setup and compare it to the last widespread 6-10" of snow that SC & NC saw I don't mean to cause a rift, but I call it like I see it... this board wasn't meant to be a place for mind games or to lure false hope to those without Met tags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Was this an attempt to troll the board? It seems you have a history of trolling since you've previously only selectively posted your Euro weekly info when those charts projected warm instead of cold in the middle of winter. I know this from casually reading this board since '10 and I'm positive I recall only warm ECMWF weekly posts from Mr. Bob. Delta has noticed the same. Yet, now you wait until mid-March to jump on a setup and compare it to the last widespread 6-10" of snow that SC & NC saw I don't mean to cause a rift, but I call it like I see it... this board wasn't meant to be a place for mind games or to lure false hope to those without Met tags I've been posting with him for a decade. He is no troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I've been posting with him for a decade. He is no troll. Ditto that. Mr. Bob is awesome. Definitely not a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I agree its rare but it is certainly possible, I wonder what this thread would be like if we were around in 1983 and the models showed what was to become the March 23-24 1983 snowstorm....I am sure lots of folks would make post talking about it not being cold enough, its late March, sun angle etc etc etc. That said these storms are rare for a reason.....chances this plays out is pretty low. http://www.glenallenweather.com/links/snowmaps/1983/SE%20snowstorm%20mar24-25,%201983.pdf that storm was a complete surprise for where i lived at the time (athens). the forecast was for a cold rain in the 40s. my mom came in to wake me up for school way early and said it was snowing. i made some snide comments until she pulled back the curtains and showed me the snow. it was amazing and just poured down. the biggest snowfall i experienced growing up in ne ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I've been posting with him for a decade. He is no troll. good to hear Queen, although I have seen evidence to the contrary and I'm no fool... many times others would post euro weeklies when they were cold also, saying this is the best setup since January of '11 (back when the PDO wasn't an absolute mess) is a bit of a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Folks, Per the 0Z 3/16 GEFS, the AO is forecasted to dip to near -5 or lower 3/19-23 (yes, 5 days of sub ~-5) with a low ~-5.5 within 3/20-2!! This is even lower than prior runs! How unprecedented is this? Well, going back to 1950, when daily AO records start, there has not been a single day near or lower than -5 between 3/11 and 11/16, inclusive! Actually, there have been sub -5 days in March only in 1970 and that was seven days in early March (3/4-10). How crazy is this? The 0Z 3/16 and earlier Doc runs have had a 1064 mb sfc high and 566 dm 500 mb hts. centered over the N pole on 3/19! Considering how anomalous is this AO dip, the major S showing on the 0Z 3/16 Doc on 3/22 for parts of the SE is not far-fetched at all. This is a once in 60 year occurrence for late March regarding the -AO and arguably is the best setup for the SE in two years. Actually, the 64 year record low AO is more anomalous than SE sticking snow outside of the mountains since there have been a few of those in late Mar/early Apr. as opposed to just one since 1950. It has the following in " (only 1"+ plotted): - 1-5 for all of TN with peak of 4-5 Chatt. - NC: 2-4 Triad/Triangle, 5 Ash, 7 Charl, 5 ILM, 12 Ftvl - SC: 6 COLA, 8 Flo, 3 MYR - GA: 3 AUG; 2 AHN, 1 N ATL burbs; 4 Clayton; 2 Dahl and Rome - far N AL/MS: 1-3 This is the 4th Doc run in a row with SE snow around 3/22-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 so when do all the snow geese flood back to the forums when they catch wind of the impending storm that could possibly effect us. ironically this storm looks like the best chance we have had this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 12z GFS is flirting with the idea of something to watch during the mentioned time frame but doesn't get there. Synoptically I'm not capable of describing it because it is a cluster of a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 March snow isn't particularly unusual to me..of course I've been around a while longer than many here. Larry do you have any stats on how many March snows we've seen in Ga. I've seen 4 of 5 since I've been down here in the big snow catagory, and probalby lessor snows too...but I don't remember lesser snow as well Folks are acting like it's impossible, and I know it's very possible. I've seen two 4 inch or greater late March snows in the last 5 or 6 years. And I don't get that good a rate most Jans., lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 March snow isn't particularly unusual to me..of course I've been around a while longer than many here. Larry do you have any stats on how many March snows we've seen in Ga. I've seen 4 of 5 since I've been down here in the big snow catagory, and probalby lessor snows too...but I don't remember lesser snow as well Folks are acting like it's impossible, and I know it's very possible. I've seen two 4 inch or greater late March snows in the last 5 or 6 years. And I don't get that good a rate most Jans., lol. T Tony is correct as usual. Consider these stats: KATL airport measurable S in MAR since 1950 (more than we've had in two winters): 1960, 65, 80, 83, 87, 93, 96, 09, 10 Same for late March, only: 83, 96 Major ZR in Mar KATL: 1960, 1971; Major ZR late MAR: 1971 So, KATL has had two major winter storms in late MAR since 1950. # of March's with sub -5 AO since 1950: 1 (1970); # in late March: 0 You be the judge about what is more anomalous, the sub -5 late March AO or getting measurable snow or major ZR at KATL or a similar location in late March. Aside: Posting with IE is a royal PITA!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I think his was point was that at times, it seems like some posters will come out of hibernation just to talk about a model if it shows what they want. I do agree that we usually only see, at least lately, Mr. Bob only talking about how the Euro weeklies are a blowtorch and winter is over. Now I live the euro and usually it shi*s alllllllllllll over the GFS, but this year the weeklies, and somewhat the OP runs have been terrible. That's just my 0.02 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Here we go: snowing across most of NC by early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Snow line is probably somewhere between greenwood-Chester-myr. Everybody north of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Less QPF this run but that's not important this far out. GSO gets practically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 GSP is the sweet spot in the western carolinas. FAY and FLO look like the places to be in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 How does the available cold air look, and will it be in place before the precip? I'll take being in the sweet spot 6 days out! I must admit , I'd be a little disappointed if the snow goes south of mby, especially in the latter half of Mar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Where is eveybody at? This is the most credible looking 5 day threat we’ve had all winter. Cold air is well established for this storm. The surface low is not too strong and getting sheared as it moves east by a strong new england vortex. The euro run reminds me of the January 2011 snowfall in that it has a dampening wave getting eaten by a cold vortex but still spitting out a hefty baroclinic leaf of moisture across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Less QPF this run but that's not important this far out. GSO gets practically nothing. Sounds good. Glad to see the Euro keep the storm. I'm not too worried about placement yet. Looks like I may have to rely on the NW trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Where is eveybody at? This is the most credible looking 5 day threat we’ve had all winter. Cold air is well established for this storm. The surface low is not too strong and getting sheared as it moves east by a strong new england vortex. The euro run reminds me of the January 2011 snowfall in that it has a dampening wave getting eaten by a cold vortex but still spitting out a hefty baroclinic leaf of moisture across the area.I'm here. Gfs and cmc are both suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Where is eveybody at? This is the most credible looking 5 day threat we’ve had all winter. I'm out getting bread and milk...j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I'm out getting bread and milk...j/k. I'm heading out later to buy a snow-blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This definitely makes for an odd board dynamic -- we've been burned so many times, it's hard to even consider seeing snow in late March. Yet. the Euro is nothing to be trifled with when it is consistently showing a solution. At the very least, it's going to be shockingly chilly next weekend, compared to what I just played golf in. Where is eveybody at? This is the most credible looking 5 day threat we’ve had all winter. Cold air is well established for this storm. The surface low is not too strong and getting sheared as it moves east by a strong new england vortex. The euro run reminds me of the January 2011 snowfall in that it has a dampening wave getting eaten by a cold vortex but still spitting out a hefty baroclinic leaf of moisture across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Where is eveybody at? This is the most credible looking 5 day threat we’ve had all winter. Cold air is well established for this storm. The surface low is not too strong and getting sheared as it moves east by a strong new england vortex. The euro run reminds me of the January 2011 snowfall in that it has a dampening wave getting eaten by a cold vortex but still spitting out a hefty baroclinic leaf of moisture across the area. What hour does it show this at? I only see a NE bomb and very cold everywhere especially the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This definitely makes for an odd board dynamic -- we've been burned so many times, it's hard to even consider seeing snow in late March. Yet. the Euro is nothing to be trifled with when it is consistently showing a solution. At the very least, it's going to be shockingly chilly next weekend, compared to what I just played golf in. It would be ironic to finally get a widespread winter storm after practically everyone had given up on winter, wouldn't it? Shall the rule of 10 apply again? NC Piedmont accumulating snows in mid/late March in 1983, 1993, 2003, and ... 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 What hour does it show this at? I only see a NE bomb and very cold everywhere especially the Midwest. Friday morning hour 144 on the models. Like mentioned earlier the GFS and GGEM are supressed which, imo, is the perfect place for them to be this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Gawx should get a job at a NWS office if we get a widespread snowstorm out of this. His use of statistics/analogs have proven more credible than any other respected met’s long range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Friday morning hour 144 on the models. Like mentioned earlier the GFS and GGEM are supressed which, imo, is the perfect place for them to be this far out.I see it now. Lol look at this. Yesterday it was showing above average for everyone in the East. Huge difference today. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I'm heading out later to buy a snow-blower. Ive got two if you want one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Birthday plans for next weekend look ruined thanks. I expect 70 degree weather in late March. We have it suppressed enough to allow for some north trends to make it a NC north threat leading up to it. I probably won't bite until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Gawx should get a job at a NWS office if we get a widespread snowstorm out of this. His use of statistics/analogs have proven more credible than any other respected met’s long range forecasts.Don Sutherland has also been amazing. I didn't believe neither that we would be having a cold March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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