March Pattern and Discussion

[FallsLake]

12z GFS is showing a very cool/cold look in the extended. Too bad this is not January, we would be looking at at least a couple wintery threats. Hour 336; which is out in lala land but still valuable in since of the overall discussion of if it will be cooler or warmer than normal.

 

 

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Was the April 27th outbreak - with like 320 something confirmed (with one that I consider to essentially be a tri-state tornado - Miss, Alabama and Georgia ) in 2011?

Yes. I remember thinking that the April 16th outbreak (30 tornadoes in NC on one day? Holy cow) was going to be the big tornado event of the year. Then Super Outbreak 2.0 and Joplin happened...

Oh, and between the NC outbreak and the Deep South outbreak there was also that EF4 tornado in St. Louis that hit the airport and damaged part of the terminal. That was also crazy.

[Lookout]

1) I do. Not every reader only enjoys below normal temp.'s when there's wintry precip. I love it when it is cold at the Masters. Late cold snaps are enjoyable. Also, I think that early heat and humidity is annoying rather than late cold because we normally get seemingly endless heat and humidity late spring to early fall.

2) You'd be annoyed by cool, rainy? That's surprising considering you seem to always like it raining.

 

I'm not arguing for heat and humidity...god knows i HATE it and in fact I hate summer, with the exception of t-storms (if we aren't locked into a 2 month dry pattern of course ) I'm just talking about mild temps like next week, in the low 70s or there abouts.

 

Now if there is wintery precip with the cold, now that's a different story lol I'm just talking about what I call worthless cold. It doesn't bother me so much in the winter (exception being i want it colder and snowier or icier).

 

However when it comes to this time of year,  I just HATE sunny, sort of cool, and sunny days. I should say cool and rainy days does not  bother me nearly as much as cool, windy, and sunny days. I just can't stand it cool/sunny/windy days in march or april..period. I haven't liked it since I was 4 or 5 years old..seriously. However, although I do love the rain, even if it's cold/cool, I can't help but think about snow or ice and the lack of it

 

I'm with you, Larry!!  It could stay cool and rainy all spring, in my book.  Make it so...

 

Although I hate heat/summer, I don't want it being cool and rainy all spring. Like I said, I just want 70s for highs, 50s for lows

 

 

Yes brother - give me cool and rainy during the months of July and August please.  It would be quite nice to have occasional days with rain and low 70's or high 60's during the summer.

 

Now this I totally agree with. Give me rainy (and lots of rain at that) and "cool" days during the summer months for weeks on end

[Teru Teru Bozu]

However when it comes to this time of year,  I just HATE sunny, sort of cool, and sunny days. I should say cool and rainy days does not  bother me nearly as much as cool, windy, and sunny days. I just can't stand it cool/sunny/windy days in march or april..period. I haven't liked it since I was 4 or 5 years old..seriously. However, although I do love the rain, even if it's cold/cool, I can't help but think about snow or ice and the lack of it

This winter/early spring has been very annoying. It hasn't been exceptionally cold, and certainly we've had our chances for decent snowfall ruined a few times with it being not quite cold enough. But, at least in my area, we generally have a good warm spell or two in February, and the fact that we didn't really see that sort of thing this year is causing all of the winter-hating people I know (and I know a lot of them) to complain about how cold it is.

At this point I do really just want to skip ahead to spring because our chances of seeing one last shot at snow are pretty much nil, and I would like to hear less griping about it being 48 and windy.

[dsaur]

I'm not sure anyone is arguing this - at least not me.  This all started under the presumption that we ALL were ready and looking forward to severe weather.  Some of us do not "look forward to it".  That is all.  There's no question as to whether or not it will happen.  And yes - all weather types create unsafe circumstances, but the odds of calamity obviously rise during severe weather. 

 

Personally, it's not in my best interest for severe weather to hit my back yard, as I have much more vested between April and September (gardens, wind damage to crops/buildings, kids always outside, etc.) than I do during the cold months.  My specific location reels from cells traveling directly SSE from the foothills that impale us with hail and wind every year - to the point in which I have to literally plan our garden around it (location, which way to plant rows, etc).  But I certainly don't believe I can control what happens.  I just don't look forward to it.

I love all kinds of weather, and if it's scary and threatening I go out and confront it, but it damn sure doesn't mean I welcome it, or want it, or need it.  It's just the Metal Man making trouble again with blanket statements, lol.  I hate to be under the gun, especially the older I get, because I've seen what pad sweepers do, and they do no good.  I don't want them, hope for them, or wish to see one up close, but I have, and I will, because I live where they live.  So I deal, and I go out and watch because weather is fascinating, and if one is coming for you, you better just spread your arms and fly. 

   Well, you don't actually fly, you bump along the ground while your body is filled with dirt and rocks and wood splinters, and things bash you, and break you.  No one in their right mind wants to go through that kind of death, but if it is what's coming right at you, all the wishing and hoping won't make it come get you, or avoid you.  It's weather...it does what it does.

  As for cold spring and summer I'd welcome it.  I'd take 100 days a year of 50's and rain, 100 of sleet, and snow, and below freezing, 100 of spring sun and breezes, and 65 of retched heat, lol. And I'd like it in random form.  But I won't get that either.  Weather love it or hate is coming to you no matter what you do, or how you want it

  I've said over and over for years there is usually a cold day at the Masters, and all the "winter is over" "bring on spring", blah, blah, blah, won't change the fact that often it's cold a day or so in April.  Of course we haven't had any winter for two and half winter seasons, so who knows what's coming now  

   Sure the blizzard killed many people, in boats at sea, and tornadoes in Fla, in other ways, but I doubt you can find where it swept a home and family away down to the pad, so sure I'd like to see another...way, way more than any more tornadoes within 100 miles   I like wind as much as you do Metal, but I've had damage from wind, I've had the crap scared out of me by wind well over 100, so I draw the line at 85 or so.  Anything over that is in excess   And I expect, over time, lightening kills more people, and I used to go out and dance around in lightening and thunder and torrential rains, but I'm somewhat less an idiot now   Yes, Burns, I said only "somewhat", lol. 

So..bring on the cold, CrossRoads Larry, and I'll deal with the rest after.  The potential Miller A is out there in the LR, with some cold poking down, and I happen to believe it could happen.  After 46 years, I got a blizzard.  March is one of my favorite months!!T

[Bevo]

I love all kinds of weather, and if it's scary and threatening I go out and confront it, but it damn sure doesn't mean I welcome it, or want it, or need it.  It's just the Metal Man making trouble again with blanket statements, lol.  I hate to be under the gun, especially the older I get, because I've seen what pad sweepers do, and they do no good.  I don't want them, hope for them, or wish to see one up close, but I have, and I will, because I live where they live.  So I deal, and I go out and watch because weather is fascinating, and if one is coming for you, you better just spread your arms and fly..............

 

Reading your posts Tony, is like reading another chapter in your own, ever expanding "Never-ending Story".  And let's be honest - who doesn't dig it?

[metalicwx366]

I love all kinds of weather, and if it's scary and threatening I go out and confront it, but it damn sure doesn't mean I welcome it, or want it, or need it. It's just the Metal Man making trouble again with blanket statements,T

I apologize to you and Bevo for saying that everyone was looking forward to spring weather.

[Isopycnic]

I apologize to you and Bevo for saying that everyone was looking forward to spring weather.

I, for one, am looking forward to warmer weather and tracking severe thunderstorms. 

[metalicwx366]

I, for one, am looming forward to warmer weather and tracking severe thunderstorms.

There we go! I'm tired of this cool weather. Started the 1st six days of the month -15 departure. Upper 70s and lower 80s are in the forecast starting this weekend with full sunshine. Hell yeah!

[jburns]

There we go! I'm tired of this cool weather. Started the 1st six days of the month -15 departure. Upper 70s and lower 80s are in the forecast starting this weekend with full sunshine. Hell yeah!

 

-15 eh.  If this was January you would have a shot at frost.

[metalicwx366]

-15 eh. If this was January you would have a shot at frost.

Yep just like that widespread frost the night after the white rain was falling into the lava pool at the beginning of this month.

[superjames1992]

I'm ALL IN.  Let's make this happen, folks! 

 

20 miles south and we've got accumulating snowfall.  SLAM DUNK!

 

(Yes, I realize this is merely a clown map that can't be trusted)

 

[dsaur]

MetalBoy, I think there's a good % chance you'll see snow before the summer is over!  If the gators start coming in town later in the month, you'll know.  There's highs in Canada, lows in the gulf,  0 lines moving.  Things are afoot   All you have to do is look at the long range Goofy to see the truth, lol.  You just have to believe.  Do you think when that weekend weather met who will forever be one of my hero's, along with Cross Roads, and Robert, said a week from now we may get a big snow storm on the 13th, I doubted? A week away..in March?  Calculated sun angle, ground temps?  Nay, double nay.....  I believed, and starting greasing up the runners.  Of course, your wind blew the few inches into drifts and scoured the roads and fields so I couldn't sled, but I got the cold and the snow, and beaucoup winds, and if you see gators you will too!  The whole past 6 or 7 years or so have been full of anomalous events, and patterns.  What's one or two more?  Prepare for surprise   T

[Bevo]

I would love to hear thoughts on what changes a neutral Nino would bring to the SE summer, as well as it's potential impact on the PAC.  Personally, I believe the PAC punched Nino in the face before winter, and Nino will be a little more hesitant to try again.

 

Thoughts?

[Cold Rain]

I would love to hear thoughts on what changes a neutral Nino would bring to the SE summer, as well as it's potential impact on the PAC. Personally, I believe the PAC punched Nino in the face before winter, and Nino will be a little more hesitant to try again.

Thoughts?

I would *guess* that ENSO state affects the Pac jet more than the other way around...not sure if you're implying the opposite anyway?

If Nino could have developed and been in place for the winter, the Pac jet may have had less of a negative influence.

During the summer, the Pac jet generally retreats northward and weakens, right? So not sure what the relationship between ENSO and the jet would be.

From a tropical standpoint, I believe Nino typically acts as a negative influence for tropical cyclone development and Nina is the opposite.

For SE weather, a would a Nino be warm/wet?

[Bevo]

I would *guess* that ENSO state affects the Pac jet more than the other way around...not sure if you're implying the opposite anyway?

If Nino could have developed and been in place for the winter, the Pac jet may have had less of a negative influence.

During the summer, the Pac jet generally retreats northward and weakens, right? So not sure what the relationship between ENSO and the jet would be.

From a tropical standpoint, I believe Nino typically acts as a negative influence for tropical cyclone development and Nina is the opposite.

For SE weather, a would a Nino be warm/wet?

 

Honestly, I was under the impression that the reason Nino never materialized this winter was because of how dominating the PAC was.  So I suppose I did imply the opposite, which is one of the reasons I asked the question.

 

Looking back on last summer, I never paid attention to whether or not the PAC relaxed.  Here's what I do know:

 

(1) With the exception of the first week in July, my temps were slightly below normal from around April until December.

(2) Despite the frantic implications of those drought maps, I received far higher amounts of rain than usual during the same time frame (which has held true through the present day).

 

In other words, This winter featured the same pattern that nearly all of 2012 threw at me.  So I wonder if anything really did change substantially with the PAC.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 Well, well, well, what do we have here? The 12Z Doctor has a cold rain for central and south GA (rain with 30's) from a Miller A 3/22-23...interesting. This is one day before the 30th anniversary of the great Miller A snowstorm of 3/24/1983.

 

 Edit: then it has very close to, if not some actual light wintry precip., N GA/W carolinas 3/23-4!

 

 What a beautiful thing extreme blocking can be!

 

 Of course, the odds of this verifying closely are smaller than the odds of Tony moving to Miami. Regardless, it is fun to dream.....and with the predicted near record strong -AO for March coming ~3/20, very unusual things are quite possible just after this block peak based on history (I'll try to post about this). Stay tuned!

[dsaur]

Folks,

 Well, well, well, what do we have here? The 12Z Doctor has a cold rain for central and south GA (rain with 30's) from a Miller A 3/22-23...interesting. This is one day before the 30th anniversary of the great Miller A snowstorm of 3/24/1983.

 

 Edit: then it has very close to, if not some actual light wintry precip., N GA/W carolinas 3/23-4!

 

 What a beautiful thing extreme blocking can be!

 

 Of course, the odds of this verifying closely are smaller than the odds of Tony moving to Miami. Regardless, it is fun to dream.....and with the predicted near record strong -AO for March coming ~3/20, very unusual things are quite possible just after this block peak based on history (I'll try to post about this). Stay tuned!

Lol, I  was thinking about Miami when I was reading that the poles are about to move around some and S. Fla would be the snow zone.  But then cooler heads reminded me that the weather won't change when the magnetism decreases, like now, and the poles jump some.  But I'm holding out for some wind pattern moveration leading to cold winds banking off the Apps, and ricocheting into central Ga. creating a sort of lakes effect, sans the lakes.  An Atlantic snow gun, as it were, thus I've decided to stay around here for the time being.  I want to see just the tops of phone poles sticking up over the snow pack, like Buffalo had one year.  I've had a blizzard..now I want that!!!!

  And having watched that maybe low for some runs, and the high in Canada, I've been believing in this storm, or the other one, or both.  That 7 to 8" of snow surprise was very interesting, in that it rained lightly then picked up and around 4 or 5 switched over, if we are discussing the same storm.  Karen woke me up saying it's snowing and I thought it was an April Fools joke, in my blearyness, to get me back for telling her our cat had had a two headed kitten, when she was on an important conference call, lol.  My neighbor told me later, it was raining hard as he headed home from the late shift, and as he got into Griffin good, it went to snow.   Another reason I love March and never give up until the Masters. It snows in spring in central Ga.  All you need is blocking and a low in the gulf, with high moving down at the right time.  To heck with sun angle, blah, blah, blah   Tony

[Tacoma]

Folks,

 Well, well, well, what do we have here? The 12Z Doctor has a cold rain for central and south GA (rain with 30's) from a Miller A 3/22-23...interesting. This is one day before the 30th anniversary of the great Miller A snowstorm of 3/24/1983.

 

 Edit: then it has very close to, if not some actual light wintry precip., N GA/W carolinas 3/23-4!

 

 What a beautiful thing extreme blocking can be!

 

 Of course, the odds of this verifying closely are smaller than the odds of Tony moving to Miami. Regardless, it is fun to dream.....and with the predicted near record strong -AO for March coming ~3/20, very unusual things are quite possible just after this block peak based on history (I'll try to post about this). Stay tuned!

its always 10 days away, wished it were 3 days out.

[NGaWxNerd]

Folks,

 Well, well, well, what do we have here? The 12Z Doctor has a cold rain for central and south GA (rain with 30's) from a Miller A 3/22-23...interesting. This is one day before the 30th anniversary of the great Miller A snowstorm of 3/24/1983.

 

 Edit: then it has very close to, if not some actual light wintry precip., N GA/W carolinas 3/23-4!

 

 What a beautiful thing extreme blocking can be!

 

 Of course, the odds of this verifying closely are smaller than the odds of Tony moving to Miami. Regardless, it is fun to dream.....and with the predicted near record strong -AO for March coming ~3/20, very unusual things are quite possible just after this block peak based on history (I'll try to post about this). Stay tuned!

I will take a rain check on this one please. Save the drama for October or November. I am worn from being cold and damp...tease warm...cold and damp....warm...If I had a dangling participle to freeze off, I'm sure it would be missing by now.

[GaWx]

 Fwiw, the 0Z Goofy gives much of TN snow on 3/24, the 30th anniversary of the great 3/24/1983 Miller A SE snowstorm. Per the clown: Knoxville gets 2", Nashville gets 1.5", and Chattanooga gets 1".

 

 Keep in mind that this would be four days after the -AO dips to near record late March levels. Unusual wintry things sometimes follow extreme -AO dips by a few days. Stay tuned.

[jburns]

 Fwiw, the 0Z Goofy gives much of TN snow on 3/24, the 30th anniversary of the great 3/24/1983 Miller A SE snowstorm. Per the clown: Knoxville gets 2", Nashville gets 1.5", and Chattanooga gets 1".

 

 Keep in mind that this would be four days after the -AO dips to near record late March levels. Unusual wintry things sometimes follow extreme -AO dips by a few days. Stay tuned.

 

It's late March. Those totals would last about 30 minutes after the snow stopped falling.

[dsaur]

All my March snow stay the day.   The two ULL snows of recent years stayed well into the night.  I couldn't sled on it, but it had novelty value, as any 4 or more inch snow does   I'd rather have sleet, but I'll take snow in a pinch, lol. These events are far from impossible.  Just needs timing, as always down here.  T

[WilkesboroDude]

It's late March. Those totals would last about 30 minutes after the snow stopped falling.

 

Timing is critical. 9pm-9am will hold snow accumulation good in Wilkes during the last week of March. Out of the time frame, it will need to be very cold, a lot of snow, and cloudy to hold it down.

[jburns]

Timing is critical. 9pm-9am will hold snow accumulation good in Wilkes during the last week of March. Out of the time frame, it will need to be very cold, a lot of snow, and cloudy to hold it down.

 

Please stop.  You always drag things off topic and then state something so obvious a child of 7 could have made the post.  We weren't talking about a lot of snow. Yes, if it snows "a lot", is very cold and stays cloudy I guess it will be "held down".  Whatever that means. 

[GaWx]

Folks,

The 0Z Doctor gives parts of TN and NC 1-3"

of snow per the clown map on 3/22-23, about 3-4 days after the extreme, near record-breaking late March -AO dip. There have now been multiple Goofy/Doc runs suggesting a snow threat TN/NC during 3/22-24. These are rather believable due to the consistent prediction of a major AO dip centered bear 3/19-20. Typically, one needs to watch in the SE for the possibility of snow in late March several days after an extreme -AO dip.

This run also gives a solid freeze on 3/24 for many well inland places as well as highs only in the 40's 3/23-4!

[superjames1992]

Folks,

The 0Z Doctor gives parts of TN and NC 1-3"

of snow per the clown map on 3/22-23, about 3-4 days after the extreme, near record-breaking late March -AO dip. There have now been multiple Goofy/Doc runs suggesting a snow threat TN/NC during 3/22-24. These are rather believable due to the consistent prediction of a major AO dip centered bear 3/19-20. Typically, one needs to watch in the SE for the possibility of snow in late March several days after an extreme -AO dip.

 

I was watching that on Instant Weather Maps and thought something good may come of it based on the h5 maps.  It appears that the low tracks near the Gulf Coast and goes out to sea.  Thanks for the info, as always.  It's something to keep an eye on, I suppose, and it's not that far out in la la land (7-8 days).

 

The GGEM showed a huge storm around that time period, but it went Miller B, which screwed everyone in the SE (actually, upon closer inspection, the northwestern Piedmont and foothills get a little something and just north of the NC/VA border gets a decent hit ... not that it really matters since the chances of it verifying are 0%).

[metalicwx366]

Euro was cold for late March. 850mb 0C line down in Florida. When is it going to stay warm? lol

The AO is starting its plummet to near record low levels for this time in March.

[Tacoma]

well its awfully quiet in here.  is there not any snow seen at least for the mtns.?  reading some about the 3/23-3/24 time frame.  any truth to this?

[GaWx]

 The 12 Z Goofy is still another run showing SE snow on is clown maps: 1-3" W Carolinas and far N NC with other SE areas getting under 1" and a good bit of the SE getting at least flurries. Most of this falls in a couple of events 3/22-26. The -AO block, which peaks just prior to this period, is of near record proportions for March. Keep non-farfetched hope alive! Winter is far from over. Tony must be thrilled to no end lol.