Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looking forward to a solid foot or so here in far N NJ, but the place I'd most want to be for this one is ACK. The overnight is going to be wild there - sustained winds probably peaking around the storm force threshold and gusts to around H-force, with heavy precip and crashing temps as the low center passes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My apologies if this has already been posted but someone sent this to me.  Is this really what Fox 61 in Hartford is going for?  I haven't seen any guidance that supports this but I thought it was good for posting.

 

I'm sticking with my call yesterday for 18" + or - a few inches at my location.

That was from the morning run of the RPM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I keep seeing people complaining here and there. This thing looks perfect and is matching up with 12z NAM fairly well IMO, what is Boston's all time record 24hr snowfall? 

 

 

Their 24 hour record is 25.4" on Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997....their all time storm record is 27.5" during PDII.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My apologies if this has already been posted but someone sent this to me.  Is this really what Fox 61 in Hartford is going for?  I haven't seen any guidance that supports this but I thought it was good for posting.

 

I'm sticking with my call yesterday for 18" + or - a few inches at my location.

that can't be. divide by 2 or 3 lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 
‎**ALERT *** MIDDAY COMMENT ---IMPORTANT 

..12z GFS HAS LESS SNOW... TIME TO PANIC ??? 

As I said last night it is now time to stop using the models and focus on what is actually happening in the atmosphere. Last night it was the pathetically awful 0Z NAM model with its 40 inches of snow over northeastern jersey and the lower Hudson Valley and 30 inches in New York City. Now it is the 12z GFS... Which again cannot seem to figure out what the next 4 hours are going to do in the atmosphere without busting. 

As I have stated many times here... on the FB posts and in those LONG snowfall forecast maps is that I have been putting out... **** It is this STALL off the Southeast Massachusetts Coast which is WHY the European model has persistently and consistently showed a huge snow mounts since Sunday over central and Eastern New England and major snow amounts into New York City. *** Now maybe the European model for the past 12 or 13 runs is completely wrong. 

But the point is that is WHY the big snows pile up. Without the stall you do NOT get a historic snowstorm just a garden variety major snowstorm. The only model which has consistently showed this stall has been the European model. At times the Canadian and the British model have showed this scenario as well. 

Over the past four or five days ... out of 20 runs of the operational GFS only 2 RUNS ..maybe 3.. Have showed a stall for this Low off the Southeast Massachusetts. Coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My apologies if this has already been posted but someone sent this to me.  Is this really what Fox 61 in Hartford is going for?  I haven't seen any guidance that supports this but I thought it was good for posting.

 

I'm sticking with my call yesterday for 18" + or - a few inches at my location.

Kevin hacked their computers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
‎**ALERT *** MIDDAY COMMENT ---IMPORTANT 

..12z GFS HAS LESS SNOW... TIME TO PANIC ??? 

As I said last night it is now time to stop using the models and focus on what is actually happening in the atmosphere. Last night it was the pathetically awful 0Z NAM model with its 40 inches of snow over northeastern jersey and the lower Hudson Valley and 30 inches in New York City. Now it is the 12z GFS... Which again cannot seem to figure out what the next 4 hours are going to do in the atmosphere without busting. 

As I have stated many times here... on the FB posts and in those LONG snowfall forecast maps is that I have been putting out... **** It is this STALL off the Southeast Massachusetts Coast which is WHY the European model has persistently and consistently showed a huge snow mounts since Sunday over central and Eastern New England and major snow amounts into New York City. *** Now maybe the European model for the past 12 or 13 runs is completely wrong. 

But the point is that is WHY the big snows pile up. Without the stall you do NOT get a historic snowstorm just a garden variety major snowstorm. The only model which has consistently showed this stall has been the European model. At times the Canadian and the British model have showed this scenario as well. 

Over the past four or five days ... out of 20 runs of the operational GFS only 2 RUNS ..maybe 3.. Have showed a stall for this Low off the Southeast Massachusetts. Coast.

it's the location of where it happens that matters. i don't think the stall is in question. it's just where. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New data ingest for my TrendCast.  (http://smartwxmodel.net/MA.htm)

 

Boston Area Weather Progression: Continued light to moderate snow through 00Z, with snowfall rates of .3"/hr, with minimal accumulation due to temps still at or just above freezing.  After 00Z, thing really start picking up.  I am seeing snow to rapidly increase with a period from 03Z to 11Z of snowfall rates up to 2.5"/hr and winds NNE at 30G48KTS through this time period.  This run is going with a total snowfall in the Boston area of 31.9".

 

Providence Area Weather Progression: Continued Moderate snow through 00Z, with snowfall rates of .4"/hr.  After 00Z, snow increases to moderate to heavy snow with rates of .7"/hr til 04Z, then from 04Z to 10Z, 2.6 to 2.8"/hr snow rates possible.  In addition winds NNE at 30G44Kts during this timeframe.  The run is going for a 26.5" for the Providence area.

 

Groton New London, CT Area:  18.7" total snow accumulation, with 05Z to 11Z the peak time for heavy snow and rates up to 2.3"/hr possible, average of 1.8"/hr over the time period

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z HIRES NMM and ARW both bring 2.00 to 3.00" of QPF into Cape Cod, MA as snow.  Once the coastal front crashes SEward we see colder temperatures and better accumulating snows.  Total of 3.00-4.00 of QPF on Cape between both models.

That's excellent.  We need more liquid to keep up with the northern folks who have better ratios.  Can you image what 32" of 8:1 ratio snow can do to structures?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...