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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

So close to the Slight...

 

day3prob_20130508_0730_prt.gif

...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION...

SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE

AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...SUPPORTED BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF

FAVORABLE MOISTURE WITH 50S TO SPOTTY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS.  MAIN

CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.  HOWEVER...FCST HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW

ENOUGH CURVATURE S AND SE OF SFC LOW TO INDICATE SOME SUPERCELL

POTENTIAL FOR ANY RELATIVELY ISOLATED/DISCRETE/PERSISTENT TSTMS.

MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS LOCALLY

FOCUSING SVR RISK.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST

DEEP SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE GENERALLY AOB 35 KT IN

FCST SOUNDINGS.  SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

So close to the Slight...

 

...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION...

SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE

AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...SUPPORTED BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF

FAVORABLE MOISTURE WITH 50S TO SPOTTY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS.  MAIN

CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.  HOWEVER...FCST HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW

ENOUGH CURVATURE S AND SE OF SFC LOW TO INDICATE SOME SUPERCELL

POTENTIAL FOR ANY RELATIVELY ISOLATED/DISCRETE/PERSISTENT TSTMS.

MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS LOCALLY

FOCUSING SVR RISK.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST

DEEP SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE GENERALLY AOB 35 KT IN

FCST SOUNDINGS.  SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK.

 

Maybe we can get it extended into our area for a token slight ;)

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

An eyebrow was raised yesterday with the more southern SLP track, better wind fields and sufficient moisture return. But the 00z runs and 6z GFS have shifted north and lost their more interesting look.

 

We'll see if we can get more amplification out of the lead s/w on today's 12z runs but I didn't like the way this morning's data went.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

An eyebrow was raised yesterday with the more southern SLP track, better wind fields and sufficient moisture return. But the 00z runs and 6z GFS have shifted north and lost their more interesting look.

 

We'll see if we can get more amplification out of the lead s/w on today's 12z runs but I didn't like the way this morning's data went.

 

What about later next week along the periphery of that ridge ejecting out of the plains. Could we have a little MCS pattern for a day or 2 in the midwest and maybe to the mid-atl?

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

What about later next week along the periphery of that ridge ejecting out of the plains. Could we have a little MCS pattern for a day or 2 in the midwest and maybe to the mid-atl?

 

That idea I think has merit. The GFS suite is quick to break the wave / bring a cutoff because the modeling is quickly propagating the MJO into phase 6-7. While possible, I think that is the more unlikely solution. Something like that would probably prevent the best thermodynamics from getting to us. The ECMWF on the other hand.... :)

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty sure I heard thunder last night. Or at least that's what I thought the dog was barking at.

You prob did. The cell kinda just missed here but there was thunder in it.
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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

That idea I think has merit. The GFS suite is quick to break the wave / bring a cutoff because the modeling is quickly propagating the MJO into phase 6-7. While possible, I think that is the more unlikely solution. Something like that would probably prevent the best thermodynamics from getting to us. The ECMWF on the other hand.... :)

 

Yeahhh ok I think I see what you are saying using Alan's/raleighwx's composites for 5-6-7 in May.. Before then though I do not see how the phase 4 composite lines up with the pattern over the next few days (ie the north pacific and +PNA around day 5), but i suppose we can turn to other forcing to explain that... I'm personally been having a little trouble lining up the modeled patterns with the projected MJO propogation of late. I have different looking composites from other sources which doesnt help, but I guess alan's 5-6-7 do look similar to the euro/gfs solutions of late for later next week..

 

Though in terms of the gfs being a quick propogation into 6-7, not sure I see that on the phase diagrams..looks like it just weakens it and gets it towards 6-7 in the 11-15 day. 

GFSO_phase_full.gif

 

NCPE_BC_phase_21m_full.gif

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Of course didn't break through yesterday, but it felt like the air was a little heavy when it wasn't raining. Now that this morning has had some Sunshine, it feels a little humid outside. Very beautiful morning here all around with mostly sunny giving way to some cloudiness now as the day continues. Has one of those modest shear days where you wonder whether or not you break into sunshine and develop instability. But seems to me that widespread showers is the more likely scenario this afternoon. Some of the clouds look to be growing.

IMG_20130508_133224_zps603e8251.jpg

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caviman2201

caviman2201

Posted
Posted

STW in Balt City & Co...

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
  WESTERN BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
  NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
  EASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
 
* UNTIL 415 PM EDT
 
* AT 335 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR CANTON...
  AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOLTON HILL...
  WOODLAWN...
  DRUID HILLS PARK...
  HOWARD PARK...
  GUILFORD...
  LOCHEARN...
  FALLSTAFF...
  ROLAND PARK...
  HOMELAND...
  PIKESVILLE...
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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