2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[thunderman]

I just noticed this on GRAE as well. If it stays on its current track, it'll be moving just to my east and I can easily get to it. Probably some nice cloud motion with it.

 

Another area north of that one now ... anyone who thinks this is definitely not going to verify in VA is nuts IMO.  It may bust, but I don't see it as a "it's definitely going to bust" situation.

[Quincy]

Another area north of that one now ... anyone who thinks this is definitely not going to verify in VA is nuts IMO.  It may bust, but I don't see it as a "it's definitely going to bust" situation.

Some damaging winds are definitely a possibility, but the tornado threat does look marginal. This isn't a situation where you see widespread tornadoes, but given the amount of shear aloft, there could be a few weak spin-ups.

[thunderman]

Some damaging winds are definitely a possibility, but the tornado threat does look marginal. This isn't a situation where you see widespread tornadoes, but given the amount of shear aloft, there could be a few weak spin-ups.

 Yup.  Which is exactly what the 40/20 probs would suggest.

[Ian]

Another area north of that one now ... anyone who thinks this is definitely not going to verify in VA is nuts IMO. It may bust, but I don't see it as a "it's definitely going to bust" situation.

C Va looks ok. DC area on northern edge maybe tho LWX also over warns so maybe 20 warnings.

The sig tor ingredients are useless these days since they messed with how it's created.

[Ian]

Tornadoes are like the terrorists of weather. Generally way overhyped.

[thunderman]

C Va looks ok. DC area on northern edge maybe tho LWX also over warns so maybe 20 warnings.

The sig tor ingredients are useless these days since they messed with how it's created.

 

yeah those things can be deceiving.  If that sig tor ingredients product was the only word there would a gazillion high risk days haha

[Ian]

yeah those things can be deceiving.  If that sig tor ingredients product was the only word there would a gazillion high risk days haha

 

the product used to be decent. not sure why they changed it to make it so much easier to get the high numbers. granted, the high numbers don't necessarily mean anyting in themselves but it used to be much harder to get them to go to those levels.

[Ian]

Chase City VA (went with it because of the name but maybe that area down to near Raleigh) looks like an ok spot tomorrow if you don't want o go further south. Tho I'm kinda doubtful there will be much pre squall convection,

 

score!

 

[mappy]

get a job, kid

[Ian]

get a job, kid

[Ian]

new 30% wind zone matches where the best ingredients are overall

 

[Ian]

models dont really advect that better stuff into the immediate area but worth watching i suppose. kinda like the late jan event but with more heating and such.

[Disc]

Looks like a lot of the rotation weakened before it got to my location to where I drove towards Bedford.. Oh well. Got dumped on by the rain, though. 

[yoda]

models dont really advect that better stuff into the immediate area but worth watching i suppose. kinda like the late jan event but with more heating and such.

 

They didnt bring in anything discrete... they did bring one big line through around 8

[mappy]

[Kmlwx]

They didnt bring in anything discrete... they did bring one big line through around 8

Stuff in PA looks good - probably why they also got a TOR watch

[Ian]

something trying to go south of the city but it's getting sheared apart it seems

 

need mo cape

[Ian]

Tornado warning near Chase City now. Darn shoulda gone.

[yoda]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0336 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013  

 

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL VA  

 

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...131...  

 

VALID 192036Z - 192230Z  

 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130...131...CONTINUES.  

 

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF  

CNTRL AND S CNTRL VA WITH DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO  

POSSIBLE.  

 

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WILL  

CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO CNTRL VA POSING A DAMAGING WIND  

THREAT...WHILE SUPERCELLS ACROSS N CNTRL NC ALSO MOVE INTO S CNTRL  

AND EVENTUALLY SERN VA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY  

HIGHER THETA-E SURFACE AIR MASS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO  

THE 80S F AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S F. LATEST VWP OUT OF  

RAX AND AKQ BOTH SHOW VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS  

AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

[yoda]

I am gathering its the LYH storms we should be watching right?

[yoda]

Here comes our storms

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  523 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...    SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    EASTERN NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...    * UNTIL 600 PM EDT 

[yoda]

Tornado warning near Chase City now. Darn shoulda gone.

 

Poss TOG near Clarksville about 30 mins ago

[Ian]

Poss TOG near Clarksville about 30 mins ago

Nice little cell. Vis probably blows. Get rdy for LWX blanket warnings.

[SmokeEater]

Poss TOG near Clarksville about 30 mins ago

Numerous reports of major structural damage in that area from a confirmed tornado.

[Ian]

looks like a few spots of rotation trying to show up on the main line near breaks. one around stephens city at the moment.

[WinterWxLuvr]

looks like a few spots of rotation trying to show up on the main line near breaks. one around stephens city at the moment.

Stephens City is about 15 miles south of me so it could be different, but we haven't had a single clap of thunder with this line of "storms".

[yoda]

Looks like these will go just S and E of the city

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  601 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...    ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    SOUTHERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...    EASTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...    SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...    SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...    * UNTIL 645 PM EDT  

[wxdude64]

Several wind gusts in 60 mph range reported in/around Lynchburg, around 7K reported without power now.

Trees and power lines down.

[yoda]

Watching SW of EZF... looks like perhaps a lil rotation

[Ian]

Stephens City is about 15 miles south of me so it could be different, but we haven't had a single clap of thunder with this line of "storms".

most of the lightning is south of us in better instability. Prob some gusty winds mainly.