Search the Community

Showing results for tags 'Hail'.



More search options

  • Search By Tags

    Type tags separated by commas.
  • Search By Author

Content Type


Blogs

  • The Company Blog
  • Tropospheric Torrent
  • wxbrad's Blog
  • thunderman's Blog
  • Quincy's Blog
  • Ellinwood's Weather Blog
  • Once a legend always a legend
  • Weathertalkblog
  • everyhinks
  • Windy Fashion
  • Save up to 50%
  • Snowfall Updates and Forecasts 2019-2020 and beyond!

Forums

  • Board Headquarters
  • Tropical Weather Discussion
    • Tropical Headquarters
  • General Forecasting and Discussion
    • Weather Forecasting and Discussion
    • Climate Change
    • Outdoor and Weather Photography
    • Weather Marketplace
    • Meteorology 101
    • Blogs
  • Regional Weather Discussion
    • New England
    • Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
    • New York City Metro
    • Philadelphia Region
    • Mid Atlantic
    • Southeastern States
    • Tennessee Valley
    • Lakes/Ohio Valley
    • Central/Western States

Categories

  • General Analyses & Forecasts
    • Seasonal Forecasts
    • Winter Analysis
    • Tropical Analysis
    • Severe Weather
  • Miscellaneous

Product Groups

  • Upgrade Packages
    • Individual Packages

Find results in...

Find results that contain...


Date Created

  • Start

    End


Last Updated

  • Start

    End


Filter by number of...

Joined

  • Start

    End


Group


AIM


Website URL


Yahoo


Skype


Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)


Location:


Interests


Home Location

Found 19 results

  1. It's March...and even though we probably have a few more winter weather threats ahead...it's time to launch the 2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Pattern stuff can go in here, discussion leading up to events and more. Same guidelines as past years. Thread will probably idle for a month or two - let's hope for some general excitement this year.
  2. Twitter has safe tornado videos at #kywx and probably other #/@ tags. Atmosphere has tipped its hand on the synoptic fronts. How about boundaries farther south? They are usually second to go; so, this is very much still an ongoing day for Dixie (as of Noon Central Time). Noon Central Time: Differential heating and dewpoint boundary is noted from North Alabama into West Tenn. Another boundary is lifting from central Mississippi. They may merge later farther north. Either way looks like locally enhanced helicity in the usual suspect areas of North Alabama into northeast Mississippi and southern Middle Tenn. Upper air wind fields are strong including proper turning with height. 700 mb is a little warm; but, I expect enough surface convergence to overcome. Synoptic trough is coming out of Arkansas, and will bump into the above boundary(ies). North Bama clouds are decreasing both sides of lifting boundary, an ominous sign. Oh that boundary looks like an extension of the Georgia cool wedge-front, where clearing is also seen both sides. Warm mid-levels and neutral heights from yesterday will have less impact if foretasted surface heating materializes. Plus convergence along boundaries should be enough, esp intersecting ones.
  3. It's looking like a cold spring, technically it already is since meteorological spring starts March 1st. Will we continue the trend of below average severe weather seasons? These threads in warm months don't see the activity that the winter thread does, so I figured this would handle summer as well. I guess because summer is normally benign in our part of the world outside the occasional heatwave, pop up storm or rare tropical remnant.
  4. This one looks deserving of its own thread. FFC seems pretty bullish about large hail and some isolated nados.
  5. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  6. High CAPE moderate shear severe weather outbreak is becoming likely on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, including our own Mid-South. While the southern Plains may get rocked, my focus will be in/near our subforum region and the Mid-South. Friday IL/IN may go in Illinois and Indiana as the Thursday night Plains MCS ejects up that way and leaves an outflow boundary warm front hybrid. Friday heights will be rising slightly, and the next short-wave may be back in Missouri, but IL/IN will have high CAPE on a boundary. Still I would at least watch Friday. Atmosphere sometimes give hints of over/under the day before. Saturday could be a severe weather outbreak all the way from Oklahoma to Ohio, including all points in between and slightly south. Sunday morning the Saturday reports chart may look like something from an April outbreak. This time we trade in strong wind shear for high CAPE. Speed shear will be plenty for supercells though. Low level shear will be quite impressive on the synoptic warm front and any outflow boundaries from Friday night rain in Hosier Alley. Mid-South: On Saturday morning I expect a warm front and/or outflow boundaries to be draped near the Ohio River. Low pressure should track out of Missouri into the region. Smaller meso-lows are possible along the Ohio River Valley boundary as it lifts north. Locally higher storm-relative-helicity will be found east of any lows and really all along the boundary. Low level jet, which has frustrated Plains chasers, will be pumping right into the Mid-South. Mid-upper level winds will be WSW, none of this VBV prone SSW stuff. Though speed shear is not exceptionally high, turning with height and CAPE will both be robust. Stout upper level wave will come out by 00Z 5/28 and spark severe thunderstorms ahead of itself Saturday afternoon. SPC has Enhanced Risk Day 3. Pretty easy to read between the lines that a Moderate Risk is coming, perhaps as early as Day 2. MDT would probably centered from eastern OK into the Ozarks, but may extend into our Mid-South. At any rate Saturday severe storms are likely and may include tornadoes.
  7. Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
  8. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  9. As 2016 rings in, thought I'd make a severe weather discussion forum for the New Year. Severe weather doesn't seem likely through Mid January for now.
  10. I personally think November 2015 will be warmer than average, CFS has strongly been trending warmer than average since August. The CanSIPS model has also been trending warmer than average. Precipitation forecasts from CanSIPs and CFS also analyze above average. Now the Jamstec model is a bit different. It predicts a warmer than average November for areas east of the MS river excluding IL,WI, and MN. But it then predicts a cooler than average November for areas west of the MS river, east of the Rockies. That is the September run and the October run should come in in a couple of days. I do think our "Second Tornado Season", could be good. The last El Nino analogs I found have had Late Fall-Early Winter tornado outbreaks. This next list of outbreaks all happened in El Nino conditions in November. November 22-24, 2004, 2002 Veteran's Day Outbreak, 1987 Arklatex tornado outbreak, and so on.
  11. Could be severe weather dinner theater from Memphis north to Paducah this evening. Couple isolated cells may develop ahead of the main line. While Illinois may enjoy more turning winds with height, and a lovely retreating boundary, heating is better in the Mid South. Looks like some sort of differential heating boundary or moisture surge from eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee. While it could be a focus for cells ahead of the line, most hi-res guidance just shows a big cluster of storms developing. Very latest 15Z HRRR shows a cluster in the Delta actually cutting off flow into the main line and even the above boundary. Previous HRRR and 12Z hi-res NAM had better inflow for the main line of storms. Looks like mainly wind and hail to me. I agree with the low tor probs from SPC for the Mid South. Maybe we will see nice photos of a shelf cloud over downtown Memphis this evening.
  12. A confirmed tornado has already occured in Mississippi today with the radar beginning to light up with rotation sigs. Cell just east of Louin/Montrose, MS has good rotation and could produce. SPC has upgraded this area to Enhanced. Embedded areas of 1000 j/kg cape and 60kt surface shear could provide an active afternoon near the S MS, S AL line.
  13. Does anybody know of a weather website/app that has precipitation type radar extrapolated into the future? I know that there are The Ultimate Weather App ($0.99), DarkSky ($3.99), and Radar Scope ($9.99), but these do not seem to have what I am looking for.
  14. Pretty early to be in a Day 5 outlooked area for severe. Discuss upcoming threats, potential season impacting factors and more in this thread.
  15. Hello, I am interested in the size of historic hail swaths. More specifically, what is the expected size of the bounding box/bounding ellipse of a hail swath, and what is the measure of variability? Does anyone have any helpful comments or papers/resources to point me towards? I've tried searching but I have not found much. So far I have found that, "[hail swaths] can range in size from a few acres to an area 10 miles wide and 100 miles long." [1] Your help is greatly appreciated! [1] http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/hail/
  16. I would like to know where I can find a free online radar that shows the following precipitation types: freezing rain/ice pellets/hail/snow/rain. This radar must also have an archive. I am NOT looking for the typical rain/snow/mix radar.
  17. The 6-10 day forecast is hinting at another severe weather sequence from the southern Plains into the Southeast US. Just like last time the models seem to be trending from a Plains highlight to a Dixie Alley highlight. South severe is still 8-10 days away so uncertainty is high. Though one cannot pinpoint details or target areas, in May one can assume severe weather will verify at least 2-3 days out of the 6-10 day period.
  18. Why not, I'll try my luck. Day 2 outlook DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NO THUNDER AREA WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. MORE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OVER THESE AREAS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN...A BIT LATER/SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...A LEADING WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO KS/NEB BORDER AREA AND THEN CURVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY SAT. A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ORBITING THE UPPER RIDGE AND EMANATING FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST...IN CONCERT WITH THE GREAT PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF ONGOING/ELEVATED STORMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN MN DURING SAT EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FRONT...GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN NEB TO LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 2000-4000 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. CONTINUATION OF AFOREMENTIONED NOCTURNALLY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AMIDST INCREASING...BUT GENERALLY CAPPED INSTABILITY...FROM NEB ACROSS IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST EAST INTO LOWER MI AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST OH LATE INTO SAT NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN FORCING AND ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH UNDERGOES STRONGER AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER...DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...AND TIME OF DAY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
  19. Hail can be a weather enthusiast delight during the Summer time (perhaps it reminds them of snow?). Unfortunately, forecasting hail size can be a bit of challenge. One method that I use is VIL Of the Day (VOTD). It was developed by the NWS back in the 90s. It purely relies on temperatures aloft and while simple, does a surprisingly good job. Obviously there are some limitations, but I will get to those in a minute. The calculation is straight forward and is as follows: VOTD = 750 / [(h5T+h4T) / 2] where h5T and h4T are the absolute values of the 500mb and 400mb temperatures respectively. The VIL value given from this equation is the approximate value at which you can expect 0.75” diameter hail stones to fall. 0.75” was chosen because this used to be the hail criteria for a severe thunderstorm. For operational purposes, the lower the expected VOTD the higher the large hail potential you can expect. I like to use 40 g/m^2 as a rough baseline in the Summer time. For those that are not familiar with VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid), it is a radar product that operational meteorologists use to locate areas of heavy precipitation and hail. It is available in real time in all GR-LevelX products and some places on the internet (Weather Underground, etc). See the wiki page for a brief overview. Now back to the limitations of the VOTD approximation. It is best used for regular thunderstorms and not those with established mesocyclones (i.e. supercells) … although honestly it still works fairly well on most supercells we see around here. In storms with well-organized and established mesocyclones, there are additional mesoscale lifting mechanisms at work that can work to produce huge hail more efficiently than what you would tend to find in your average non-supercellular severe thunderstorm. Keep in mind that the VOTD can change as the thermal profile aloft changes. Check forecast soundings (remember, there is more than 1 model) for the afternoon ahead instead of relying solely on the 12z observed soundings. Lastly, VOTD gives you the VIL value for 0.75” hail stones and tells you nothing about maximum hailstone size, etc. I have attached a calculator that I wrote to help me compute VOTD quickly. I wrote it a while back, it’s ugly, it’s written in FORTRAN, but it does the job! votd.zip