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  1. I might as well start this thread since someone has just broached the taboo on starting tropical threads under names other than Josh's or Adam's. Peak season is some months away, but past experience shows that neutral-warm ENSO years with a slow-moving MJO centered in this region can often produce some of the most intense storms. I think we will see at least four +140-kt cyclones with a tendency to track more to the NE this year, i.e. toward the Ryukyus and Japanese islands, as in 2004. Thoughts?