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Found 31 results

  1. Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  2. It's March...and even though we probably have a few more winter weather threats ahead...it's time to launch the 2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Pattern stuff can go in here, discussion leading up to events and more. Same guidelines as past years. Thread will probably idle for a month or two - let's hope for some general excitement this year.
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  4. This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations. We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here. We actually use those more than you know. Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak. Heat index is 96 out there. Feels like a horribly hot summer day. Just brutal. Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those. We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break. Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks. LOL.
  5. Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
  6. Since we are taking a brief hiatus from winter for the next period of time...and since there is some small instability and good shear available tomorrow (see SPC discussion for day 2) - I figured we'd get a super early start on our 2018 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Let's see how badly we can fail this year with storms splitting around DC, storms missing the area entirely, and our typical gusty showers from a pencil thin line. As bad as winter weenies are around here - I think our severe weather folks are even more desperate Ready? Go.
  7. Summer has arrived early this year, so let's get the thread going.
  8. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  9. There has been an awakening.. have you felt it? *Cue Star Wars theme song* But in all seriousness, I think it's safe to make a thread for Monday now. It's looking increasingly like this could be the first significant severe setup of 2018. The Euro has a very large trough dipping into the central portion of the country, and it's been holding on to that feature for a few days now. It's also got a BIG response from the LLJ, with widespread 50-60kt winds from E TX all the way up into IL and IN. On that note, the CIPS analogs have some significant ones making appearances, with 3/13/2006 and 2/5/2008 both showing up as of the 12z runs today.. Still a lot of time to change, but this one is worth watching.
  10. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  11. As we enter into the late period of the month and we are officially into spring time, things look to bounce around as the norm goes, around this time of the year. From a high of 70 today to a high of 50 tomorrow. Got to love spring in the mountains.
  12. I need help figuring out how to calculate Dcape, "Effective"SRH (or SRH in general), and "Effective"BWD.
  13. The models keep showing this as a possible threat. Jeff mentions his reasoning for the ice potential in the winter pattern thread. A very strong cold front will sweep through the area overnight Saturday into Sunday causing crashing temps. Most models agree there will be moisture of some amount behind the front. There could also be freezing issues due to the heavy amounts of water left by the rain. In addition to the totals of ice below. Models also show some degree of sleet or snow. I believe the Euro showed an inch or so in a good portion of the area. The NAM shows some snow in parts of East Tennessee. The GFS had a couple of runs showing it too. I believe some of their maps may be incorporating sleet into their snow total maps. The worst case scenario is the Canadian, crippling ice storm for a good portion of the Valley on the 12z run. The Canadian was the first to show this possibility and hasn't wavered from it for days on end. The GFS is much more localized with freezing rain totals. The NAM splits the difference.
  14. Since met winter is coming to a close it's time for the Spring 2016 Tennessee Valley Edition.I changed the wording on the Nina thread to just Nina and took out the spring discussion.This way there is no confusion with two different topics.
  15. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  16. What are your thoughts on Day 1 MRGL, SLGT and MDT risk severe outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center in New England this year? The poll will close at 11:59 p.m. March 31st and I will post the entries. (Please include specific dates and exact numbers of each outlook to be entered into the contest) Last year, the SEE TEXT outlook is equivalent to the MRGL outlook going forward. This poll considers only Day 1 outlooks and not outlooks from days 2-8, as they could be eliminated prior to a potential non-event. 2014 stats: Date of first SEE TEXT outlook - May 10th 1630z (SW New England) 16 SEE TEXT outlooks (not including days that had prior or subsequent SLGT)Date of first SLGT outlook - May 27th 1300z (W New England) 17 total SLGT outlooksNo MDT risk outlooks - Last was September 8th, 2012 (Much of New England) The winner will simply have the least error points. There will be one error point for each day off and number of outlooks off. I'm still working out some thoughts for a potential tiebreaker. Any ideas? I toyed with the MDT risk category, but that may not help. Maybe total number of tornadoes in New England in 2015?
  17. Looks like a fairly active pattern over the latter part of this week and perhaps early next week particularly for the western side of our region.....Obviously severe is always a short fuse situation but it was most interesting to see SPC start actually using Day 6 severe outlooks (and potentially beyond).
  18. Could be severe weather dinner theater from Memphis north to Paducah this evening. Couple isolated cells may develop ahead of the main line. While Illinois may enjoy more turning winds with height, and a lovely retreating boundary, heating is better in the Mid South. Looks like some sort of differential heating boundary or moisture surge from eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee. While it could be a focus for cells ahead of the line, most hi-res guidance just shows a big cluster of storms developing. Very latest 15Z HRRR shows a cluster in the Delta actually cutting off flow into the main line and even the above boundary. Previous HRRR and 12Z hi-res NAM had better inflow for the main line of storms. Looks like mainly wind and hail to me. I agree with the low tor probs from SPC for the Mid South. Maybe we will see nice photos of a shelf cloud over downtown Memphis this evening.
  19. Models are getting to be pretty insistent on an Apps runner happening the first week of March, the 00z GFS just levels the western 2/3rd of Tennessee with heavy snow and really buries Nashville. This has been showing up quite a few runs in a row now on both the GFS and GEM. The GEM looks like it has an icy solution on it's current run. GFS snowfall on top. GEM precip/radar on bottom.
  20. From looking at models and extended forecast discussions, it appears that severe weather is possibly Wednesday, April 1st through Friday, April 3rd. SPC has outlined a slight risk for portions of Eastern KS, Northwestern MO, Eastern NE, Western IA, Extreme Southeastern SD, and Extreme Sounthern WI for Wednesday. They have also outlined 15% areas for D4 and D5 in areas of Dixie Alley for Thursday and Friday. Opinions?
  21. EML's -- packets of desert air that originate in the inter-mountain west -- are often invoked to explain severe weather as far away from the Rockies as New England. For several months I have been puzzling how such dry (heavy, dense) air could maintain its coherence and altitude while passing the two thousand miles from ABQ to BDL. To put the question in the least technical way possible: Why wouldn't it fall down? Looking at SKEW-T's I see that such parcels of air are fairly common in the East, manifesting themselves as a sharp rightward movement of the temperature line, and a very sharp, leftward movement of the dewpoint line at some point above the surface, with the two lines reconverging at higher altitudes to form a sort of tent-like pattern. Over the last year, many intelligent and experienced people have contributed to this thread, and I am enormously grateful to them. Their work is a great resource for anybody curious about layering in the atmosphere and its relation to severe weather. This post has been promoted to an article
  22. Hey everyone! I know this is a long time away, and we have plenty of time to watch it, but I think we all agree, there is going to be some kind of storm, even if its just a rain filled soaker. Any who, I have been getting a lot of questions about what is the wedge from my viewers so I threw that in there as well. Feedback is great. I don't care if its good or bad. IF you want to like my Facebook page and or twitter page that would rock as well, but you don't need too. IF you do, thank you very much. I am trying to expand those pages and get more interaction with y'all. Please share the video and invite your friends to like the page as well. Anyway, here ya go...Hope you enjoy! https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl
  23. Pretty early to be in a Day 5 outlooked area for severe. Discuss upcoming threats, potential season impacting factors and more in this thread.
  24. There is a great competition called Virtual Storm Chase that has been given new life (for bragging rights only). This is the same competition that was started over on the old wxchat forums several years ago (mid 2000s). For those that do not know what it is, I have a attached a PDF copy of the rules below. It is a great learning experience for those interested in severe weather forecasting and a great way for even meteorologists to keep sharp. http://virtualstormchase.info The site "appears" to be broke ... but once you register (free) and login it works. Rules: Rules _ VirtualStormChase.pdf