SeVa Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There are some nasty sharp cutoffs on the northern and southern edges of that snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA in a great spot, want BWI in a better position. One more north shift will do it. Anyone know ratios? not great....typical on average the start will likely be light rain and will change to snow once heavier echoes are overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't know if its a graphics issue or what, but the maps on Allens site and the NCEP don't line up with the precip on the northern extent. I don't think that's really important, doubt they are that precisely correct anyway, but they are different. I think Allen's is mapped to a 40 km grid while the NCEP site has higher resolution than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I mentioned this morning that this was ;looking more and more like 1/25/00 in the way the models were depicting it and the evolution Not really, that was a SW that dove in from the PAC nw, this is a good ole SW ULL-- there was a mega band that formed and moved NW-- this mega band is going to form and collapse SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? Wes, the .05 qpf line intersects right through the district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We gotta get off the edge not only that but temp profiles on the NAM are probably way too cold....it is a bad model and more often than not it will f-u-ck us over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? euro was horrible for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Not really, that was a SW that dove in from the PAC nw, this is a good ole SW ULL-- there was a mega band that formed and moved NW-- this mega band is going to form and collapse SE. that's why I said more and more, and not exact it's not going to reach that magnitude up here (14.9" at BWI) but during the height the general precip shield will be similar to the one Matt posted imho hey, we'll see decent accum to get this monkey off our backs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 7pm Thursday sounding near DCA NAM_218_2013011612_F36_39.0000N_77.0000W.png that is a nice sounding. I'd be fine if everything stays right where it is. NAM is probably over doing it a bit with qpf but still the potential for the most snow I've seen the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro was horrible for us except.. again.. it was a trend in the right direction and the mean was also wetter than the op and the previous mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 not only that but temp profiles on the NAM are probably way too cold....it is a bad model and more often than not it will f-u-ck us over i'd roll the dice with the setup. it's mid january. bet cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 not only that but temp profiles on the NAM are probably way too cold....it is a bad model and more often than not it will f-u-ck us over how can a short range model not be in its wheel house 1 day before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? At what point does the SREF take over for accuracy when getting closer to the storm? 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 im barely concerned about precip type at this pt. im really only concerned that we stay on the fringe than have it pass 50 miles to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 not great....typical on average the start will likely be light rain and will change to snow once heavier echoes are overhead Got it. Thanks! Really hoping this pans out. Can't take the frustration, though I'm preaching to the choir here I know. Anyway, looks good so far. My weenie fingers are crossed. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NWS went bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Problem is-- the newscasts will have to alert folks of potential rush hour issues this evening, off of the 12Z suite. If GFS holds, what would you do? Still list possibilities but word the "worst case" very strongly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 im barely concerned about precip type at this pt. im really only concerned that we stay on the fringe than have it pass 50 miles to the south. the line will run just S of Mt. Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 im barely concerned about precip type at this pt. im really only concerned that we stay on the fringe than have it pass 50 miles to the south.hi I'm on the same page. Fringe is my worry, not temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is so like Jan 2010 (from my perspective). Just not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 why cant we just get a normal storm where there isnt always this sharp cutoff somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DT going nuts, calling people out, telling fans to shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 why cant we just get a normal storm where there isnt always this sharp cutoff somewhere isnt that normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Does someone have a bigger map off the NCEP site than from the MAG NCEP page? The northern cutoff looks pretty significantly (not just slightly) different than on Allen's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Even with the stronger ULL, with the extreme banding, somone will get screwed. (Maybe me..) It forms that mega band and pulls it back towards the ULL/SLP-- So, while I expect my area to do well, 3-6 east of BR, 6-10 west, there's going to be a few sad faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Also helps us nicely that the h5 low remains tightly closed at 42 in N NC (just north of RAH) and then opens into an nice h5 wave in NE NC at 45 and slowly washes out as it leaves us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At what point does the SREF take over for accuracy when getting closer to the storm? 24 hours? The NAM loses to the GFS and SREF mean at 36 hrs and has a high bias for the .75 or greater threshold. That's part of the reason matt has expressed worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Does someone have a bigger map off the NCEP site than from the MAG NCEP page? The northern cutoff looks pretty significantly (not just slightly) different than on Allen's site.they are close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI Maybe... At least it keeps expectations in check more. 9 out of 10 storms bump north tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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