aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any chance this will jog NNW? You already said its ok to be fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think winterwx and me are the only people in VA who dont see any snow from this. Frederick County VA is out of this one. But we have had some already this year. Hope it works out for the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 this surprised me 6Z GFS has the 5H vort closed in a tight little circle at 48 hrs; that'll do the trick up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think winterwx and me are the only people in VA who dont see any snow from this. Frederick County VA is out of this one. But we have had some already this year. Hope it works out for the rest of you. I'm already planning to replace March 1, 2009 on my list, BUT............... ................I'm not sure we are out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Pretty much getting out of the useful range for the ensembles but the 06Z GFS shows most of the members still going with a roughly central Va hit. Definitely outside the useful range of GFS ensembles. SREFs are the only ensembles to use at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Definitely outside the useful range of GFS ensembles. SREFs are the only ensembles to use at this range. Mentioned them earlier. They have come north and west with the precip and have juiced up the system over the last several runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Mentioned them earlier. They have come north and west with the precip and have juiced up the system over the last several runs.. Looking at a comparison of yesterday's 21z plumes and today's 3z plumes, there certainly is a big change towards more precip. Still a number of members that are complete misses for DC/Balt, but also some very snowy members. Mean snow is .38" for DC and .29" for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You already said its ok to be fringed I lied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Did you read the thread? Incremental move NNW? I think I am out of this one for sure even if I squint really hard at the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 hpc maps are impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at a comparison of yesterday's 21z plumes and today's 3z plumes, there certainly is a big change towards more precip. Still a number of members that are complete misses for DC/Balt, but also some very snowy members. Mean snow is .38" for DC and .29" for Baltimore. If I were down in the DC and Balt corridor the probabilities map (.25 " or greater in 6 hours) from the 21Z to the 03Z would be very encouraging to me. Even though it still has that sharp cutoff just to their north and west it suggests that heavier precip will make it into their region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We've seen it over and over with ull's through the years. Nw side has a pretty intense band and sharp cutoff. And IIRC, the best spot is n&w of the short range models 9 out of 10 times. I'm usually too far south so my memories aren't as fond as peeps like phin and co. I'm pretty stoked right now with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 LWX has 1-2 in my 7 day for tomorrow during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 24 hr precip total from 09z SREFs ending at 54 hrs shows DCA just inside the 0.5 QPF line... IAD and BWI .25 to .3 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 24 hr precip total from 09z SREFs ending at 54 hrs shows DCA just inside the 0.5 QPF line... IAD and BWI .25 to .3 or so Visually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 24 hr precip total from 09z SREFs ending at 54 hrs shows DCA just inside the 0.5 QPF line... IAD and BWI .25 to .3 or so Sounds as if they shifted slightly north and west again. Out of curiosity where are you getting your SREFS from? Normally just go to Raleighs site but they aren't up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sounds as if they shifted slightly north and west again. Out of curiosity where are you getting your SREFS from? Normally just go to Raleighs site but they aren't up yet. They have indeed shifted more north and west. I'm very interested in any NW shifts. When you compare the last three runs of the SREFS, you can definitely see it. NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They have indeed shifted more north and west. I'm very interested in any NW shifts. When you compare the last three runs of the SREFS, you can definitely see it. NCEP site. If you start talking snow then im golden...fun storm to track...I hope somebody gets it good with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I guess I need to hope for another jump north or else I'm just seeing flurries. But hope it gives you southerners some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18hrs 12Z NAM, the vort is a hair slower and a hair better tilted on its way to negative vs. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 700RH looks much better thru 18 hrs too vs.; 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If you start talking snow then im golden...fun storm to track...I hope somebody gets it good with this What I like, for my area, is the increase in the precip totals being modeled to my SOUTH west. Somebody will probably make fun of that, but with precip to my sw, it makes it harder for me to get fringed. Increasing precip to my se doesn't necessarily mean my precip goes up, but to the sw probably does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They have indeed shifted more north and west. I'm very interested in any NW shifts. When you compare the last three runs of the SREFS, you can definitely see it. NCEP site. Just looked at MN transplants map and the median? (I guess that is the right term) suggests the possibility of an even further shift to the north and west to where it would suggest game on in the DC and Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 just after 18 hrs, it looks like it's coming further n&w vs. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 just after 18 hrs, it looks like it's coming further n&w vs. 6z That's how it looks to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 500mb vort is almost identical to 06Z but slightly stronger and slightly further north through 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 at 24 hrs, vort is very close to 6z but the polar vortex has retreated a hair north.....that'll work too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That's how it looks to me. Wes, you and I are always on the same page, you know that it's just that we have different books! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 24 hrs 700mb rh is better organized and further N&W from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 500 vort looks almost the same as 06Z again, but slightly stronger. Polar vortex is slightly weaker and further north. All trends look good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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