mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Maybe... At least it keeps expectations in check more. 9 out of 10 storms bump north tho. Good luck with your 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI I think it'll do what Phin said and come north before the event, BWI north myself included have time for the 25-50 miles we're hoping for. I mean the 1" precip line is only 60 miles to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI Agreed. Just brutal as depicted on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM loses to the GFS and SREF mean at 36 hrs and has a high bias for the .75 or greater threshold. That's part of the reason matt has expressed worry. It's not like what the NAM is showing is much better in this case than the GFS or most recent SREF mean...especially for those on the edge, who would prefer the other two over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not expecting anything more than flurries. DC folks, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's not like what the NAM is showing is much better in this case than the GFS or most recent SREF mean...especially for those on the edge. Yea, the GFS is actually better for the folks on the edge, I'd blame it on resolution, but I mean I think some snow regardless makes it north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM loses to the GFS and SREF mean at 36 hrs and has a high bias for the .75 or greater threshold. That's part of the reason matt has expressed worry. 09z SREF mean had 0.5 QPF into DCA... so the 0.7 or so the NAM has, while perhaps overdone, has some support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good luck with your 4-8 Come on.. That was only for clients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 09z SREF mean had 0.5 QPF into DCA... so the 0.7 or so the NAM has, while perhaps overdone, has some support Gotta like where you sit right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI SREF and GFS are both better for Bmore proper and the immediate surrounding areas. Still not WSW criteria or anything, but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF and GFS are both better for Bmore proper and the immediate surrounding areas. Still not WSW criteria or anything, but something. Yea around 2-4 for Baltimore verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ji....NAM was 1-3ish for JYO and around 4"+ for IAD. As the crow flies IAD is about 8-10 miles from our houses...I'm not too concerned about being left out at this point with this scenario...we either get decent stuff or nothing and if nothing then most North of Woodbridge are in the same boat. Been on this ride before...I'm all about riding the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sharp cutoffs can be real. March 1, 2009. Looking at all of the aspects of the NAM, I am surprised its precip shield didn't come further north than it did. Wishful thinking at play, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 09z SREF plumes for DCA QPF Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FWIW, 12z RGEM is probably around 10mm or so in DCA -- rough eyeballing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 09z SREF plumes for DCA QPF sref qpf.jpg Snow sref snow.jpg Wow..... a few of those are very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Quite reasonable for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 COngrats Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 COngrats Wes? I think he said he's on the nipple. Fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 From updated morning LWX AFD WE ARE CONTEMPLATING FURTHER XPANSION OF THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can anyone post the 09z SREF plumes for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks to break the 362 day streak without a 1+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't know why anyone would be taking precise precip cutoff literally with a single model 36 hours out unless this is your 1st time following models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why would anyone have expectation that a discrete model would be skilled enough to nail down the precip shield 36 hours out, unless this is your 1st winter following weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ji....NAM was 1-3ish for JYO and around 4"+ for IAD. As the crow flies IAD is about 8-10 miles from our houses...I'm not too concerned about being left out at this point with this scenario...we either get decent stuff or nothing and if nothing then most North of Woodbridge are in the same boat. Been on this ride before...I'm all about riding the fringe. Im moving to tavistock farms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't know why anyone would be taking precise precip cutoff literally with a single model 36 hours out unless this is your 1st time following models. It's called angst. I would prefer 1 more jog to the north myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's 18z from yesterday through 12z today side by side. You can easily see what is going on here. 18z was the first hint @ an 850 low popping but still sucked for us. The model is honing in on the 850 dynamics combined with 500 as time goes by. First a 1012, then a 1008. Taking any cutoff line verbatim right now is crazy. It can go either way at this point but the trend towards wetter in DC is a great thing. We've been here before with mixed results. Majority is a bigger move NW (as has been stated by many already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS through 12hrs looks healthier thyan 6z at 18hrs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why would anyone have expectation that a discrete model would be skilled enough to nail down the precip shield 36 hours out, unless this is your 1st winter following weather? It's a legit concern, especially for those north. The NAM isn't the only model showing it. They all do to some varying degree. I don't think anyone is thinking that the model will nail down the ExACT northern extent, I think the concern is there WILL be a sharp cutoff somewhere in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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