mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Come on.. That was only for clients Wub I don't know why anyone would be taking precise precip cutoff literally with a single model 36 hours out unless this is your 1st time following models. Yes, it's my first time following the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like we wait for King Euro to bump us North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. I mean in a number of instances it's been north, I don't really remember many where its been south. Considering which features are key in this instance, I'd go north over south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 at hour 42 the 6 hour precip shows that it is going to be snowing like a mofo here thursday eve. 5-6" in 6 hours 6 hour snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing. That is why they get paid the big bucks. Seriously, media reports have been all over on this one. It will suck if this thing holds south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looking like a rush hour storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing.The 500 vort is still a hair south of my personal confidence zone... but it's close enough. This area is always a giant pain.. putting us right on the edge makes it so much less fun to try to figure out. But, whatever.. way better than hoping we don't change over for an extra 30 minutes on a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lolz I think he meant the big buck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Would be pretty amazing in back-to-back warm/generally snowless winters to be north-side fringed by great VA snowstorms. Amazing in a crappy way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Pretty cool comparison for the geeks on here. 12z gfs @ init and current wv shot: There is no precip associated with the vort yet. Will be fun to watch it spin across the SE and bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 folks on the SE thread are freaking out about a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. I would probably lean to a broader gradient on the cutoff given the way it's supposed to come together.. but there is usually a sharp fall somewhere. i think we just don't always notice it when it's n/nw of us etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one! I'm pretty sure that we pulled off about 12-13 inches of snow last year in 2 storms (Feb 22 and March 5), while DCA was essentially getting shut out. Both of those storms had a last minute north trend on the NAM of about 25-40 miles if I recall. I thought RIC saw at least a 3 incher last year during one of those storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderhound Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 5-6" in 6 hours 6 hour snow map looked up the hr 36 map.. fast and fierce 6hr snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one! There was a storm last February (?)...it was during one of the few brief cold shots...stayed surpressed and hit CHO and EZF pretty hard if I recall (WSW criteria). I think flurries made it to a DC-Annapolis line and that was about it. Someone else mentioned it earlier in this thread. Got some parts of central VA up to near climo snowfall for last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Correct and I don't remember exactly who (maybe matt??) but someone on this board chased that storm and posted pics. There was a storm last February (?)...it was during one of the few brief cold shots...stayed surpressed and hit CHO and EZF pretty hard if I recall (WSW criteria). I think flurries made it to a DC-Annapolis line and that was about it. Someone else mentioned it earlier in this thread. Got some parts of central VA up to near climo snowfall for last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Correct and I don't remember exactly who (maybe matt??) but someone on this board chased that storm and posted pics. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32748-21912-obs-take-what-you-can-get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep, and that storm missed Richmond. We've been missed every which way you can count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32748-21912-obs-take-what-you-can-getprobably better not to look thru that thread if in the dc area. lol.. from mn transplant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I smell Mar 1999 and that one gave DC 9" of fat wet love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32748-21912-obs-take-what-you-can-get Correct and I don't remember exactly who (maybe matt??) but someone on this board chased that storm and posted pics. Yep, and that storm missed Richmond. We've been missed every which way you can count. Deform band set up shop about 20 miles north of downtown, maybe 15 miles north of me... I got about 1.5-2" out of it, so it wasn't a total bust for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Bad Ian! I remember driving south just to see accumulating snow in that storm... so disappointing in DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep, and that storm missed Richmond. We've been missed every which way you can count. It wasn't a complete miss...... it was a very wet snow at 32-33 degrees, but the airport did record 4.0"....but a lot of it settled almost instantly, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1123 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 DCZ001-MDZ009-010-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-050>057-501-502-170030- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1400Z-130118T0700Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...CULPEPER... MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 1123 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Lets stop talking about that storm, bad karma for this one.... only discuss good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I had to read the watch like 6 times and still nto sure i believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Winter Storm Watch AA south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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