danstorm Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 You can't fiddle around with that - that's a like a loaded gun when dad left the cabinet unlocked, oops. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I really wish the gfs would hop aboard. I don't like it being so flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Not liking what i'm seeing on the GFS for tuesday-seems way too flat for anything intresting to happen. Euro and JMA seemed to have some more potential though so still in the air. Right now if I had to make a call c-1" in some snowshowers but very little change or see the GFS come onboard and that would have to be changed sharply higher. Keep hoping! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I really wish the gfs would hop aboard. I don't like it being so flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Not liking what i'm seeing on the GFS for tuesday-seems way too flat for anything intresting to happen. Euro and JMA seemed to have some more potential though so still in the air. Right now if I had to make a call c-1" in some snowshowers but very little change or see the GFS come onboard and that would have to be changed sharply higher. Keep hoping! -skisheep I really wish the gfs would hop aboard. I don't like it being so flat. Oh, certainly it's more likely a non-event, but the volatility and profile of potential is just off the charts. NCEP seems to concur enough to send up the G4's - what I'm wondering is when that data might get into the initialization grid does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 One can see why G4 flights are being requested... It has been a long long time since this type of thickness packing has been modeled, and situated so close to the Gulf Stream.. You can't fiddle around with that - that's a like a loaded gun when dad left the cabinet unlocked, oops. If run a 110kt 500mb wind stream over the top of that intense of a frontal slope than the models would quite likely be underdone with sfc result. No room for compression ... at 22/06z, 500mb height over Miami near 582dm with 40kt winds. An unbroken, un-perturbed solid arc of 100kt winds at 500mb across the Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Oh, certainly it's more likely a non-event, but the volatility and profile of potential is just off the charts. NCEP seems to concur enough to send up the G4's - what I'm wondering is when that data might get into the initialization grid does anyone know? This is the plan of the day ... no idea for sure when it gets ingested into the model assimilation. I imagine by 12z tomorrow there's no doubt it's all in there. Definitely complex situation, so hopefully these drops are useful. Will be interesting to see any notable shifts/trends tomorrow! 000NOUS42 KNHC 171731REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1230 PM EST THU 17 JANUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-048I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--. A. P56/ DROP 11(44.3N 151.0W)/ 19/0000Z B. NOAA9 02WSC TRACK56 C. 18/1930Z D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.$JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 No room for compression ... at 22/06z, 500mb height over Miami near 582dm with 40kt winds. An unbroken, un-perturbed solid arc of 100kt winds at 500mb across the Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic. Yes agreed - the trick there is to have the S/W be more intense to compensate - hence the G4 missions. In fact, funny you mentioned that! I have been hammering that rule of thumb for years - haha. Little dose of me own medicine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 GFS has shortwave toming issues coming into play too. Hopefully these recon missions help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Hope you didn't hurt your back again shoveling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Hope you didn't hurt your back again shoveling today. Between the Lollies to 8 the other day and snow all the way to NYS last night...kuro is falling behind blizzard24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yes agreed - the trick there is to have the S/W be more intense to compensate - hence the G4 missions. In fact, funny you mentioned that! I have been hammering that rule of thumb for years - haha. Little dose of me own medicine I know!! I've been reading your posts for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Between the Lollies to 8 the other day and snow all the way to NYS last night...kuro is falling behind blizzard24 Instead of repealing the seatbelt law we should repeal the Kuro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Between the Lollies to 8 the other day and snow all the way to NYS last night...kuro is falling behind blizzard24I would argue I've had a great winter. Other than last night. Nailed event after event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Between the Lollies to 8 the other day and snow all the way to NYS last night...kuro is falling behind blizzard24I would argue I've had a great winter. Other than last night. Nailed event after event You've had some good calls. But also some clunkers - especially with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 You've had some good calls. But also some clunkers - especially with temps Well for example..I think tomorrow the hills stay in the upper 30's and CP and valleys low 40's. As snowpack salvager for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 11.0F/3 here Toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well for example..I think tomorrow the hills stay in the upper 30's and CP and valleys low 40's. As snowpack salvager for all I drove through N/central CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP today. There's no "snowpack" to speak of down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I drove through N/central CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP today. There's no "snowpack" to speak of down there. On the highway, no...in people's yards and protected areas, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I drove through N/central CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP today. There's no "snowpack" to speak of down there. theres is a few inches of snowpack once you get about 10 miles inland.. only the immediate shore does not have snow pack.. I live about 20 miles north of the shore and we have all of our snow from Wednesday about 2-4", a nice layer of sleet and freezing rain after the snowfall looks to have preserved our snow pack.. only about 24 hours starting tomorrow morning of temps above freezing so snow should last for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On the highway, no...in people's yards and protected areas, yes. You live in CT? You've surveyed everyone's backyard? Shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 You live in CT? You've surveyed everyone's backyard? Shut up He said he drove in N/C CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP...meaning he didn't just drive in CT. Snow pack analysis on NOHRSC shows snow cover for most of CT except the southern areas and its getting spotty in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 He said he drove in N/C CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP...meaning he didn't just drive in CT. Snow pack analysis on NOHRSC shows snow cover for most of CT except the southern areas and its getting spotty in the valley. Lol people get so defensive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 You live in CT? You've surveyed everyone's backyard? Shut up lol, dude. Calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 He said he drove in N/C CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP...meaning he didn't just drive in CT. Snow pack analysis on NOHRSC shows snow cover for most of CT except the southern areas and its getting spotty in the valley. I misread. Full apologies to WeatherMA..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 lol, dude. Calm down. Yes, sorry.....jeezuz....a bit wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 He said he drove in N/C CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP...meaning he didn't just drive in CT. Snow pack analysis on NOHRSC shows snow cover for most of CT except the southern areas and its getting spotty in the valley. that snow depth map is about perfect from what i see during my daily commute.. it shows bare ground for immediate coastline.. tr-1" coast to 15 miles inland.. then 2-4" for the rest of the state except like you said spotty in the valley.. even a spot of 4-8 in eastern litchfield/western hartford counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 even down here I'm 5 miles inland-we have patchy cover-I'd say about 60% coverage...we didnt get the ice on top of it which hurt us when it came melting time yesterday pm...it has since frozen into a nice crust, so hopefully it can hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I am going to PA on the 25th for a couple of days. Is the storm potential Tip was talking about around that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So I took a drive in my Satellite today over CT, and damn look at the snow off the interstate. Nice fresh cover over Cape Cod and of course there's the screw zone populated by our beloved jaded Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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