Jan 20-24 storm window opens (Jan 22 potential)

[Typhoon Tip]

i think once the shortwave in question emerges into the Great Plains (sun) we'll have a good feel for whether it's going to be a sheared mess or able to dig a bit more and hold it's own against the flow. i like this overall set-up for my backyard...but that doesn't necessarily mean much for the region as a whole.. 

 

Yeah, I agree - it could be a shorter term correction; much having to do with the speed of the flow.  Models will tend to perform with less valor during fast flow.

 

Also, NCEP is taking note of the signal: ".... THE EMERGENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE INVOF THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 4-5 (22/00Z-23/00Z) BRINGS THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...."

 

It's not a lot of fun - I understand that.  It is a lot more entertaining and fulfilling for the maniacal user of the forum if there is actually a cyclone on the goddamn model - but in this case, we have to put faith in the back ground signal and just wait.   Booorrrrrinnnnng.   

 

Folks, whether this event comes to fruition or not, the signal is very real and is/was always there.  There are, of course, countering forces to forces ...to nth forces in play, and not all favorable eras will produce.  It's just the name of the beast.    

[OKpowdah]

Pretty significant sensitivity to the activity over the Pacific as we've already discussed to some extent

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

There's some dark humor available in this, too - 

 

I mean, ... I just looked at the 18z GFS and it is the most damped run of all that having been annoying over the last 4 days, and then, in the midst of an arctic pattern finds the physics necessary to cut a low into the GL.   wow.   

[WeatherX]

Looks like the window is pushed to 25th-29th

[OKpowdah]

Looks like the window is pushed to 25th-29th

 

"There's always next winter..."

[CoastalWx]

Euro op still ok for ern areas.

[CT Rain]

Euro op still ok for ern areas.

 

Yeah I sort of liked the 00z suite. Looked like late blooming potential on Tuesday and then maybe a SWFEish kind of event later in the week. 

[weathafella]

6Z GFS pretty bullish on a relatively cold swfe 1/25-6.

Euro also hasn't given up 1/22 quite yet. Hopefully we get some clarification at 12Z.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Time to fire up this thread for Tippy, to discuss the potential.  May not be much but something to track.

[nzucker]

I think the biggest threat for a major storm will be in early February when the MJO moves into Phase 8 and we see a PNA spike due to that Kelvin Wave. The models, particularly the ensembles, are starting to see the signal for a west-based -NAO trapping the cold PV in Canada at the same time the PNA rises dramatically:

[Typhoon Tip]

Two glaring face smacks with this is

 

1) the flow just isn't relaxing in time; those that have followed, that was a prerequisite in this.  There were a few runs in recent times that began indicating that might take place, but I and every other Met are still seeing too much gradient for the flow to "buckle" in time.   That could be overcome if the S/W is very strong, but if anything it appears less strength is being relayed off the NE Pac/Canadian Terr. 

 

2) not happy in the handling of the would-be + PNA.  The impressive spike of a few days ago is now looking rather pedestrian.  This is actually the 2nd time this cold season that a well-clustered rise (usually cause for greater, not less confidence...) in the PNA got damped.   One thing that was concurrent in this was a robust MJO wave passing through late Phase 5 and Phase 6.  Those were anti correlated to a + PNA; perhaps there is some forcing showing up with poor timing here.  Going forward, the wave is still robust and lodged up in Phase 7, which I believe is a bit more favorable for activity over eastern N/A.     Either way, if the PNA continues to back off there's not much remaining with this.   

 

The flow does look to remain active - 

[mahk_webstah]

Two glaring face smacks with this is

 

1) the flow just isn't relaxing in time; those that have followed, that was a prerequisite in this.  There were a few runs in recent times that began indicating that might take place, but I and every other Met are still seeing too much gradient for the flow to "buckle" in time.   That could be overcome if the S/W is very strong, but if anything it appears less strength is being relayed off the NE Pac/Canadian Terr. 

 

2) not happy in the handling of the would-be + PNA.  The impressive spike of a few days ago is now looking rather pedestrian.  This is actually the 2nd time this cold season that a well-clustered rise (usually cause for greater, not less confidence...) in the PNA got damped.   One thing that was concurrent in this was a robust MJO wave passing through late Phase 5 and Phase 6.  Those were anti correlated to a + PNA; perhaps there is some forcing showing up with poor timing here.  Going forward, the wave is still robust and lodged up in Phase 7, which I believe is a bit more favorable for activity over eastern N/A.     Either way, if the PNA continues to back off there's not much remaining with this.   

 

The flow does look to remain active - 

The process is slow it seems but perhaps we really benefit by the MJO taking its time into 7 and 8.  We could have a really nice stretch well into Feb.  SWFE next week then with a PNA rise and -NAO a biggie for everyone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the biggest threat for a major storm will be in early February when the MJO moves into Phase 8 and we see a PNA spike due to that Kelvin Wave. The models, particularly the ensembles, are starting to see the signal for a west-based -NAO trapping the cold PV in Canada at the same time the PNA rises dramatically:

gfs0zpna.gif

Climo would agree with you regarding early Feb.

[CoastalWx]

Bit of a better signal on the GFS for something in ern ma.

[Weathergun]

The pattern next week doesn't really support any major amplfication or phasing, along the East Coast. You basically want systems coming out of the West to stay weak and run quickly into the artic cold, for a decent snowfall, north of 40N.

 

(This is referring towards more the end of the week)

[Tropopause_Fold]

I don't think it's going to take much to get snow flying on Tue - at least for parts of the area. Something like the GFS Continually moving that arctic energy and air mass out over the warm waters will be sufficient

[Baroclinic Zone]

Bit of a better signal on the GFS for something in ern ma.

 

Yeah, looks like a bit more energy diving in on the backside of the trough allowing for a bit more amplification.

[Ginx snewx]

Jerrys 50s for Sat look in trouble. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I agree Phil, this won't take much to get going, only question I have is suppression.

[Damage In Tolland]

Jerrys 50s for Sat look in trouble.

Its 37-39 hills and 40-44 coast for 1 day. Snowpack in tact FTW

[Baroclinic Zone]

Its 37-39 hills and 40-44 coast for 1 day. Snowpack in tact FTW

 

If you actually have snow to retain.  I have none.

[TheSnowman]

Well at least after 2 straight days of No Precip. for over 200 Hours and then TWO Rain events followed by more cold and no snow into Feb., we at At LEAST have Alberta Clipper to watch a week from now.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS look much better for Tuesday, Still east, but much better.

[NaoPos]

12z left, 0z gfs right.

regarding the clipper and trail end event shown on the gfs today.

[MJHUB]

If you actually have snow to retain.  I have none.

 

Really? that's surprising, just to the west of you beside PVD itself have 1-2 inches on 90% of the ground. piles on sides of roads etc.

[SnowGoose69]

There is a pretty strong inverted trof threat with that Tues setup...there is an area of somewhat slack flow at 700/850mb in the trof axis with a potent 500 vort.  The setup actually looks alot like 2/25/90 to me.

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip ACK got 5" per WHDH, 4" on the islands from the PNS, 3+ over a lot of the Cape east of Exit 4-5.   This was about 50 miles from being a 1-3" even up to the south short and SE RI, 3-6/4-8 on Cape Cod and maybe more on the islands. As it was, it's probably the biggest event on the lower cape/islands or among the biggest in several years. 

 

The problem in that thread was the blurring between what might have been a more significant system SE of the brick wall, versus it being something for more people.  IE, if it had timed out right the same areas that got accumulating snow could have done better by a decent amount but the NW edge of meaningful snow was always going to be Duxbury New Bedford SE for the most part.    That's to be expected, I tried to break the thread out and highlight where the threat was but it gets  muddied.

 

Also, you focus on specific words too much.  This isn't a doctoral candidate level class on meteorology, it's a bunch of people having fun.   When I speak of literal bombs I usually mention the pressure requirements or actually note the specific drop over a period of time.  I can understand why you harped on that, but again in the context of what I was saying....

 

For a short time I thought this had the potential to be a bigger deal for the Cape.  It ended up 50-100 miles too far SE.   Ackwaves probably thought it was a pretty cool storm as did the Vineyard, but I was hoping for better.  Is what it is.

 

Onto the pattern ahead, just wanted to clarify.

 

Bomb" has a proper formal recognized definition in the Met glossary - yeah, I'm all for having fun, but -   

 

Anywho, verbatim the 12z Euro might do that to you guys down there again, ironically - ha

[codfishsnowman]

i hope we get a little something from tuesday and more later in the week

[Damage In Tolland]

Tipper. The Mon nite/ Tues event is like a 2-4 or 3-6 fluff bomb regionwide

[Tropopause_Fold]

nice inverted trough on the euro. that would probably be some good snows