Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 snow probabilities are pretty high as well given the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 snow probabilities are pretty high as well given the timeframe. SREF has a NYC area NORLUN signal. My gut is that that comes north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SWCT ftw on the SREFs? KBDR winter this year, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SWCT ftw on the SREFs? KBDR winter this year, Scott will have an epic meltdown if that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SREF has a NYC area NORLUN signal. My gut is that that comes north lol. yeah, i see that. also looks like some coastal enhancement over the se ma, cape areas as well. could be one of those deals where we have a meso low cutting underneath sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Jackpot for me on the SREF's! Too bad that's probably not going to happen, think it goes north but how far is the question. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Nam says congrats sw ct and NYC metro fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Nam says congrats sw ct and NYC metro fwiw. Through 69 hours it's a KBDL jackpot. We know that won't verify lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Through 69 hours it's a KBDL jackpot. We know that won't verify lol. Lol. You think further north then that? All of sne gets .25+ on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z NAM nails Pike south...just like 06z. Inv troughs are funny...some models yesterday did have NYC in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hvy hvy snow on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 These certainly are not modeled well until to closer in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hvy hvy snow on the nam Yeah you get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'd much prefer the stronger/more wrapped up sfc low than the inverted trough. Still a weenie band has potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Ack jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 These certainly are not modeled well until to closer in timeWe will see the axis shift around for sure. This will behave a bit differently than the norluns we typically see, however, as I don't think the effects will be quite so localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 There is also synoptic lift and decent mid level RH meaning this probably will not be just one narrow band of snow. All I want is a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We will see the axis shift around for sure. This will behave a bit differently than the norluns we typically see, however, as I don't think the effects will be quite so localized. We're also talking about the potential for some monster dendritic growth. NAM would probably be like a 5-10 kinda deal with lollis to 15+ on the Cape and Islands lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hvy hvy snow on the nam yeah, no kidding. wow! thats a potent vort diving out of the northern plains there on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 .9" of fluff on the nam. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 There is also synoptic lift and decent mid level RH meaning this probably will not be just one narrow band of snow. All I want is a few inches. Exactly! I think we'd all be happy with that...and then bitter cold on top of a fresh snowpack--could see some frigid overnights with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We will see the axis shift around for sure. This will behave a bit differently than the norluns we typically see, however, as I don't think the effects will be quite so localized. It probably will end up spinning up a low somewhere down your way once it hits the water, It appears like it would be more widespread over a larger area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z NAM total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 As i sit in that dryslot...................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah Scott....decent synoptic lift on a slightly larger scale than just the embedded norlun feature....so I think a lot of people will get a weenie 1-2" even if they don't get a more intense band. All the models are showing general light snow too. This will keep the people who have temperature departure fetishes complaining as Tuesday won't be quite as cold now with this snow around. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 As i sit in that dryslot...................lolTime to go back to your old name.The vort did tick a bit north on this run. Still a shot that the trough gets far enough north to deliver some accums. We're probably going to need to see it drive through MA to see anything significant so we're running out of time on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think what the NAM does show is the potential for a potent band due to the instability. Delta-Ts through the roof with the SST above normal. It may develop into an organized low, but just saying that a band traversing the state like the NAM has, is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Is it too soon to lock 4-8 regionwide ,, La las to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Time to go back to your old name. The vort did tick a bit north on this run. Still a shot that the trough gets far enough north to deliver some accums. We're probably going to need to see it drive through MA to see anything significant so we're running out of time on that. There was a plume of moisture lifting back up near and west of I-93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Time to go back to your old name. The vort did tick a bit north on this run. Still a shot that the trough gets far enough north to deliver some accums. We're probably going to need to see it drive through MA to see anything significant so we're running out of time on that. Yes...lol, Would be fitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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