CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think the March 1992 event had TSSN in E MA. But yeah, you like to see soem CAPE and also like to see the lift deeper than in a norlun event...the lift can be intense, but its often relatively shallow in these setups. Though the NAM looks a bit more impressive in this one....it does have a bit of a MAUL on the ORH counding around 69-71 hours. It had deep lift over the Cape for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Here is the TAN sounding NAM_218_2013011912_F78_42.0000N_71.0000W.png That's unstable, but maybe just short of getting TSSN. Check out the thread Wes had about asking for TSSN soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Big meeting? GFS is still very light (1-2" fluff), so that is definitely on the table. I start classes again on Tuesday. I could use a snow day though I work two jobs over 13 hour on Tuesdays....I'll pass over on more than an inch or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The NAM BUFKIT had pretty impressive lift for a time. Here is ORH BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm pretty sure gfs is incorrect in depositing not a speck of qpf for like 4000 miles at 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That's unstable, but maybe just short of getting TSSN. Check out the thread Wes had about asking for TSSN soundings. Yeah you can get TSSN from LES but it's pretty rare and you need some pretty extreme instability in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm pretty sure gfs is incorrect in depositing not a speck of qpf for like 4000 miles at 57 hours. jerry - not sure if you are using SV anymore...but just in case...don't forget they changed the legend (annoyingly) to .05 as the first interval that shows up. i think they did that to counter the GFS showing precip too expansively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Out of nowhere gfs delivers.....or at least snows on eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 jerry - not sure if you are using SV anymore...but just in case...don't forget they changed the legend (annoyingly) to .05 as the first interval that shows up. i think they did that to counter the GFS showing precip too expansively. Lol...that's what I'm doing. I should read the announcements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS is a little less deep with the trough, but really compresses the heights near the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS gives E areas a little love then pretty much says congrats Mass Bay and Gulf of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Gfs is 1-3 ORH eastward and 3-6 HYA east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That was meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I approve of the synoptics and inv trough position this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS gives E areas a little love then pretty much says congrats Mass Bay and Gulf of Maine Did not look too different from the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah you can get TSSN from LES but it's pretty rare and you need some pretty extreme instability in the boundary layer. usually you want to be absolutely unstable through at least 700mb. You also generally want a lot of omega through the -8 to -10c isotherm to get graupel, water, and snowflakes colliding with each other. Mid-winter LES events tend to not have much lightning due to the second point. Feb 2007 had some...even with -25c 850s...but the 500s were -47c and the LICAPE was about 2000j/kg...which overwhelmed the lack of graupel in the cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS meh for my area but nice for eastern areas. Still time for it to spread the love around though although would not be suprised for this to be close to the solution. Then again we have 3 days and we all know what can happen in 3 days... Also does anyone know if the data from the flights has been added into the model yet? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Gfs is 1-3 ORH eastward and 3-6 HYA east. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We toss Not making a move until after the EURO one way or another. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Not for nothing, but there is an arctic boundary draped practically overhead mid week. That can at least get some SHSN going or possibly even OES if it can get a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NNE is beyond cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 sad gfs solution for GC--congrats, eastern folks. At least will have cool weather. Getting toasty at the pit--29.6/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NNE is beyond cold. I have an H95 temp of -23C 12z Wed morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Interesting tidbit courtesy of Joe D'Aleo: A Norlun Instability Trough (named after discoverers NOgueiRa and LUNdstedt, who noticed the effect during a major winter storm in 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Lol at MPM. There's not one SNE area that won't get at least a few inches on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Interesting tidbit courtesy of Joe D'Aleo: A Norlun Instability Trough (named after discoverers NOgueiRa and LUNdstedt, who noticed the effect during a major winter storm in 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like unc is on board for at least a few inches in most of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Was that your 7th grade science project? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Was that your 7th grade science project? LOL, just funny someone with an uncommon name like that is a weenie too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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