WeatherX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It gets down into the 960s later frames...a full New England blizzard. Yeah I saw that.....amazing looking storm. Love that CEP model site! The Quebec view is outstanding for NE close up shots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 It gets down into the 960s later frames...a full New England blizzard. Yes the CMC is a monster bomb, perhaps a "hyper bomb" - pretty rare. It sucks when these signals are so far at lead cause you have to wait, and wait, and wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes the CMC is a monster bomb, perhaps a "hyper bomb" - pretty rare. It sucks when these signals are so far at lead cause you have to wait, and wait, and wait.... Its exciting. A well outlined threat for a significant storm at long range, is now being modeled as a bomb on some models. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Its exciting. A well outlined threat for a significant storm at long range, is now being modeled as a bomb on some models. Fun times ahead. Could be a different looking landscape out there in another couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Close call...just barely wide right on the 1/22 event on the Euro. Weenie snow though for a lot fo the region...looks like some OES enhancement on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Close call...just barely wide right on the 1/22 event on the Euro. Weenie snow though for a lot fo the region...looks like some OES enhancement on the Cape.as they say, where we want it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'd hedge any high expectations on this one. Timing will be difficult to get this one to amplify to the level the GGEM did overnight. We need the lead wave to get out of the way faster allowing this follow up wave to dig. I'd favor a glancing blow at best right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Going into the wayback machine, my favorite MLK storm was in 1994 and I was living in Central Vermont. We got 17 inches in a short amount of time. I walked across the village green in the evening during the height of the storm. By the time I got where I was going I realized my keys were not in my pocket and I tried retracing my steps. The snow was coming so fast I could not find my path from 10 minutes earlier. A friend found the keys in early May when the snow melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Going into the wayback machine, my favorite MLK storm was in 1994 and I was living in Central Vermont. We got 17 inches in a short amount of time. I walked across the village green in the evening during the height of the storm. By the time I got where I was going I realized my keys were not in my pocket and I tried retracing my steps. The snow was coming so fast I could not find my path from 10 minutes earlier. A friend found the keys in early May when the snow melted. Had a similar experience in 1983. Did some winter camping in Dec and ended it by doing a quick run up Blue Mt. in the Adirondacks. Really stiff LES was kicking up on the way down, and I vaguely thought I heard something fall with a jingle on a particular part of the trail, but ignored it. Got down to the parking lot, and sure enough, no keys! Fortunately we had an emergency car key, and as it was getting dark we just left. Came back a few weeks later in Jan, 3 more feet of snow on the ground and there had just been an intense glazing situation--everything was covered in boilerplate, especially up high where I dropped the keys. We punted. Came back again in early May when the snow was very patchy, and sure enough sticking out of one of the remaining snow piles were my keys! It looked like the snow had just melted off them the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Had a similar experience in 1983. Did some winter camping in Dec and ended it by doing a quick run up Blue Mt. in the Adirondacks. Really stiff LES was kicking up on the way down, and I vaguely thought I heard something fall with a jingle on a particular part of the trail, but ignored it. Got down to the parking lot, and sure enough, no keys! Fortunately we had an emergency car key, and as it was getting dark we just left. Came back a few weeks later in Jan, 3 more feet of snow on the ground and there had just been an intense glazing situation--everything was covered in boilerplate, especially up high where I dropped the keys. We punted. Came back again in early May when the snow was very patchy, and sure enough sticking out of one of the remaining snow piles were my keys! It looked like the snow had just melted off them the day before. I was walking home from basketball once when my keys slipped from my hand, right over and down through a man-hole grate. "Chingle, ploot!" "Aw, w t f!" I could see them there, mocking me some 8 to 10 feet down. Car keys, dorm room keys, college kid so 0 pragmatism such as back up keys, you get the drill. I had an idea right off the bat, though, that if I could use a magnet somehow... Turned out not to be such a bad idea. I described the situation to a couple of double EE major friends of mine down the hall, and after they laughed at me hardily, they eviscerated a speaker and pulled a magnet out. Worked like a charm! Tied a length of thin rope to it, and then lowered it gently through the grate, clung the keys to the magnet, raised it back up. All this happened between 8-9 at night mind you. If anyone ever dares tell you that keys are not a living entity that likes to play games with you ... you punch them in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tip, what are your thoughts on the last couple of GFS runs getting further OTS? Just the typical bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Trough orientation does not look to hot as well as the spacing between s/w. This thing can't dig enough to get a system close to the coast as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tip, what are your thoughts on the last couple of GFS runs getting further OTS? Just the typical bias? The GFS run has a progressive bias to some degree that is noted by NCEP in on-going performance. There may be some of that going on, but the flow IS fast leading immediately up to that time, so whether the GFS is merely expressing that bias now may be buried in there and hard to define. Much of this was and has always been predicated on whether the flow could relax some as the PNA were spiking. As is, the PNA component in this is still in play - there were some hints the flow relaxation at least somewhat, were emerging over the last couple days, particularly in the GGEM and at least trended in the Euro. The Euro did back down a little at 00z, but we are not in the Euro's wheel-house as of the 00z run last night. Still a D6/7 sort of time lead. There is/was enough modeling converging on the original idea to not drop this entirely. The fact that we conceptualized all this, and then the models came in after the fact with some impressive solutions, speaks volumes that there are parameters in play. Also, we should caution that it is quite common for a signal to drop ...sometimes entirely, passing from an extended into a late middle range lead, only to come demonstratively back as the middle range gets nearer - there could be some of that, too. I know it is hard at times to think in these terms. It would be nice if these discussions were drawn up, and then immediately there were a big pretty eye candy perfect 10 pin-up model of a system on the charts at all times - or folks get cynical. But, that is why I like to reside inside of pattern recognition and differentiating that out in time. we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With zero shortwave ridging amplifying downstream, all we will be able to get is a very progressive low developing briefly on the baroclinic zone that will already be pushed southeast of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 With zero shortwave ridging amplifying downstream, all we will be able to get is a very progressive low developing briefly on the baroclinic zone that will already be pushed southeast of climo. That wasn't the case on some previous runs, while appearing to be so as of 12z - I don't think we should necessary go that way. I understand the need to be skeptical; not you per se but it seems there is a biased predisposition to be skeptical that sometimes precludes analytics. There's no scientific law that state a 00z GGEM type solution - or the trend that even the GFS had prior to recent cycles, can't return. That all said, if the flow doesn't relax in time, eh - that was part of the original requirement here. But what is actually happened in these runs is that relative to the flow, the prior runs had stronger S/W dynamics. It really appears more so that's merely weakened some - the S/W ridging you speak up is not disconnected from the strength of the S/W that feeds it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That wasn't the case on some previous runs, while appearing to be so as of 12z - I don't think we should necessary go that way. I understand the need to be skeptical; not you per se but it seems there is a biased predisposition to be skeptical that sometimes precludes analytics. There's no scientific law that state a 00z GGEM type solution - or the trend that even the GFS had prior to recent cycles, can't return. That all said, if the flow doesn't relax in time, eh - that was part of the original requirement here. But what is actually happened in these runs is that relative to the flow, the prior runs had stronger S/W dynamics. It really appears more so that's merely weakened some - the S/W ridging you speak up is not disconnected from the strength of the S/W that feeds it. Sorry, that post was more in reflection of model run suggestions ... not necessarily a prediction. I'm throwing up both sides. I guess my optimistic side hasn't shown in this thread, but for instance I mentioned in another the relationship between the W Pac bomb yesterday and downstream wave train results that have in the past been associated with cyclogenesis events east of the Rockies around a week later. GFS often does run into issues with a progressive bias ... at the same time the GGEM can have the tendency to key in on one impulse and over-amplify. Plenty of time for model-watching ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why wasn't this thread pinned? It is clad in meteorologically sound discussion and not rip-n-read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why wasn't this thread pinned? It is clad in meteorologically sound discussion and not rip-n-read. haha - You're funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sorry, that post was more in reflection of model run suggestions ... not necessarily a prediction. I'm throwing up both sides. I guess my optimistic side hasn't shown in this thread, but for instance I mentioned in another the relationship between the W Pac bomb yesterday and downstream wave train results that have in the past been associated with cyclogenesis events east of the Rockies around a week later. GFS often does run into issues with a progressive bias ... at the same time the GGEM can have the tendency to key in on one impulse and over-amplify. Plenty of time for model-watching ahead There is a lag teleconnection there - but obviously, it is not point-to-point... Just because there's a storm there does not mean there will be a storm here, 7 days later - it is, like always, a landscape of probabilities. That said, it is interesting to see such an enormously powerful W Pac cyclogenesis event. The favored R-Wave distribution would tend to suggest the +PNA spike is thus a well handled outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Every single ensemble run today has produced a storm in this location on Tuesday on one ensemble member, and it was a different member each run. On the 18z run it was member P004, at 12z it was member P003, and at 6z it was member P002. They all have the low of similar time, strength, and placement. Clearly the potential is there, has been and still is. Who knows if it will ever come to fruition however. The last three are from the latest 18z run that just came out with P004 producing a nice little KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So is this threat still legit? Op Euro looked like it amplified too far off shore. Euro Ensm looked like it had some semblance of a low coming off the M.Atl. coast. GFS op/Ensm looked meh. Couple hits amongst the member with the Ops suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Jan 20-24 Storm window closes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Jan 20-24 Storm window closes OUCH!!! could you look next time? caught my hand in that. close 20-21 and open 22-26 plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 12z GFS tries hard today to amplify but looks to be offshore save for some snsh over extreme SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So is there a single model that has this still? Or is it non existent/ots on all of them? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 12z GFS tries hard today to amplify but looks to be offshore save for some snsh over extreme SNE. Looks like a bit of an inverted trough there as well into CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So is there a single model that has this still? Or is it non existent/ots on all of them? -skisheep OP Euro and OP GFS both have it, it's just a miss for 99% of you. This is the difficulty in trying to assess the pattern going forward at all. When the moving parts keep changing it's all voodoo. Fun, entertainment for us and I appreciate Tips effort and hope it's rewarded but it is what it is. Aside of very big general discussion I don't think anyone has really nailed this winter, the pattern or particular events. QVectorman is probably by far the closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro Ens develop the 22nd low quicker and NW of 0z and well west of the 12z GEFS. Still a miss se for most but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 The signal is still there. It's not showing too well in the runs right now, granted, but there certainly is time at D5 and 6 lead for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The signal is still there. It's not showing too well in the runs right now, granted, but there certainly is time at D5 and 6 lead for that to change. i think once the shortwave in question emerges into the Great Plains (sun) we'll have a good feel for whether it's going to be a sheared mess or able to dig a bit more and hold it's own against the flow. i like this overall set-up for my backyard...but that doesn't necessarily mean much for the region as a whole.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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