Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here you go John, Todays 12z Euro. f192.gif f216.gif Ha, interesting... looks sort of 00z -like. Re the NOGAPS run, granted this model is the less reliable out of all mistakes of man and country ... the run is text book for creating a major eastern coastal impact event. Looking at the run way up over Greenland and there is a decent positive anomaly in the heights, with a 50/50 split SPV situated between Maine and those heights. Meanwhile, you have a western ridge just pouring jet wind dynamics into the High Plains ... all that jet junk is going to pile up and break on the MA given the overall parametrics as described, and there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I dunno - the 180 hour GONAPS looks reeeeallly good ahahhahha Lol well that would be almost textbook for a significant EC storm. One thing I don't like is there is a tendency to flatten the east side of the western ridge with any energy that rotates around the polar vortex ... so the flow can never really amplify much out west ... and that's why getting a s/w to amplify / sharpen in the Plains is really difficult. I look at it like RKW theory for MCS's ... a balance of vorticity. In this situation the polar vortex overpowers the ridge out west ... can actually see how parcels of anticyclonic vorticity from the ridge get pulled cyclonically south of the polar vortex. This results in the problem that I'm seeing, which is the tendency to flatten the eastern half of the ridge, with broad cyclonic flow out of the northwest ...rather than straight out of the north (which would help amplify and sharpen shortwave energy from the Rockies to southern Plains). Instead, we have broad, smooth, fast cyclonic flow around the vortex with no mechanism to amplify individual impulses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think these were the control run images that had everyone getting interested on the Accu Forum. Some in the SNE area may need resuscitation after looking at the images. Edit: I removed images, didn't realize they were pay images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Lol well that would be almost textbook for a significant EC storm. One thing I don't like is there is a tendency to flatten the east side of the western ridge with any energy that rotates around the polar vortex ... so the flow can never really amplify much out west ... and that's why getting a s/w to amplify / sharpen in the Plains is really difficult. I look at it like RKW theory for MCS's ... a balance of vorticity. In this situation the polar vortex overpowers the ridge out west ... can actually see how parcels of anticyclonic vorticity from the ridge get pulled cyclonically south of the polar vortex. This results in the problem that I'm seeing, which is the tendency to flatten the eastern half of the ridge, with broad cyclonic flow out of the northwest ...rather than straight out of the north (which would help amplify and sharpen shortwave energy from the Rockies to southern Plains). Instead, we have broad, smooth, fast cyclonic flow around the vortex with no mechanism to amplify individual impulses All true ... of course, a lot of details - I mean those are kind of discrete to be too worried about that at this range. I think the NAO relaxing in the index at both the CPC and CDC, combined with seeing heights over Florida recess gradually in the 6 days leading, might be offering hope that the flow slacks as the PNA ridge pops - I am actually more confident in the PNA part of this working out, which might offer a flatter less KU'esque but still active pattern - true. But again, if I didn't see that NAO index neutralization I'd be less interested in anticipating an SPV relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think these were the control run images that had everyone getting interested on the Accu Forum. Some in the SNE area may need resuscitation after looking at the images. Not to be douchy sounding but I don't think we are allowed to post paid for data on this site. Just fyi - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think these were the control run images that had everyone getting interested on the Accu Forum. HPC discussion: 12z Euro was initialized with ketchup-covered weenies wedged between every fourier component Buy bread and milk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Not to be douchy sounding but I don't think we are allowed to post paid for data on this site. Just fyi - I removed them. I didn't know they were paid for images. Thanks for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I removed them. I didn't know they were paid for images. Thanks for the heads up. Yeah, any pay image is not allowed to be posted here. That being said. They were a pure snowgasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 All true ... of course, a lot of details - I mean those are kind of discrete to be too worried about that at this range. I think the NAO relaxing in the index at both the CPC and CDC, combined with seeing heights over Florida recess gradually in the 6 days leading, might be offering hope that the flow slacks as the PNA ridge pops - I am actually more confident in the PNA part of this working out, which might offer a flatter less KU'esque but still active pattern - true. But again, if I didn't see that NAO index neutralization I'd be less interested in anticipating an SPV relaxation. Getting the vortex to make an even split like some runs suggest opens up possibilities for sure. I would love to see the PNA spike up a little more too. I do like seeing low heights over FL stay put as the NAO relaxes ... with the flow becoming more "compressible" in the southeast. I'm just concerned that the polar vortex is super stable, and resists any disturbance in the smooth uniform circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Lol well that would be almost textbook for a significant EC storm. One thing I don't like is there is a tendency to flatten the east side of the western ridge with any energy that rotates around the polar vortex ... so the flow can never really amplify much out west ... and that's why getting a s/w to amplify / sharpen in the Plains is really difficult. I look at it like RKW theory for MCS's ... a balance of vorticity. In this situation the polar vortex overpowers the ridge out west ... can actually see how parcels of anticyclonic vorticity from the ridge get pulled cyclonically south of the polar vortex. This results in the problem that I'm seeing, which is the tendency to flatten the eastern half of the ridge, with broad cyclonic flow out of the northwest ...rather than straight out of the north (which would help amplify and sharpen shortwave energy from the Rockies to southern Plains). Instead, we have broad, smooth, fast cyclonic flow around the vortex with no mechanism to amplify individual impulses This issue will of course be going up against the PV's birthing of low anomalies upstream across the North Atlantic that will want to cut toward the UK. All of these low anomalies will work in tandem with the remnant lower stratospheric vortex and help bring in the ozone as well as begin to carve out a -NAO (meh-east based). It is possible one digs enough to clip eastern New England but I don't think the Mid Atlantic can see anything good out of this. I wish y'all the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 This issue will of course be going up against the PV's birthing of low anomalies upstream across the North Atlantic that will want to cut toward the UK. All of these low anomalies will work in tandem with the remnant lower stratospheric vortex and help bring in the ozone as well as begin to carve out a -NAO (meh-east based). It is possible one digs enough to clip eastern New England but I don't think the Mid Atlantic can see anything good out of this. I wish y'all the best. For those deeper latitudes of the MA there is a "somewhat" different "preferred" pattern compared to the NYC to the Down East Maine corridor. To include the DCA - PHL regions requires more suppressed storm tracks - in fact, a lot of those ~ PD storms from the last century didn't even snow in interior SNE, when 12-18" rocked as far N as central Jersey. They are all KUs, whether they impacted S or N along the EC, as they are all covered by their statistical/educational outlines. The important thing really to take from all this is early detection techniques. I would also caution that as Feb 2006 demonstrated, -NAO is not a prerequisite for including those parts of MA; albeit perhaps rarer, there are other means to engineering a KU type events without that. Contrasting, what the "snowmeggedon" winter in the MA taught us was that a solid west based NAO is certainly preferred for you guys down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Definitely agree about that and did keep Feb 06 in mind when first posting in this thread. I suppose there is always room for more amplification to maybe include my area in this event but I'm not holding my breath. The stratospheric-upper tropospheric connection could be just the "intrusion" you guys are looking for to get a nasty GOM cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 18z GFS ensembles have a couple of interesting looking possibilities. One looks very similar in strength and placement to the Euro Control run of this morning, although just a touch further east, with a 976 mb low off the DelMarva that it deepens to 956 mb by around Maine or Nova Scotia, really can't even see it. Definite possibilities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Whether the 20th -24th bares fruit remains to be seen, but the signal is still alive and well at this time... Here is the 12z GFS operational run showing nicely the "compressibility" of the flow in the deep SE. Note the distance between the isopleths are broad over Florida and adjacent areas, and the winds are less than 30kts. We also notice in this 96 hour panel, that there is a lot of S/W dynamic wind energy poised to dive SSE out of western Canada. This is subtle under-the-radar relaxation appeal makes a HUGE difference in any S/W's ability to "dig" into the SE, which is pretty much a prerequisite construct for encouraging any cyclogenesis taking place to affect the MA regions as well as NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GFS today tries to amplify the system but it's too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GGEM today blows up on top of us. Dryslots coastal areas after nailing us.. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GGEM today blows up on top of us. Dryslots coastal areas after nailing us.. LOL. f168.gif f174.gif f180.gif Thanks for posting these! Honestly, that's a perfect ideal epic strike with no dry slot. In fact, that's a hammer CCB like we have not seen in years drilling eastern zones and the coastal plain in that interpretation. Granted it's one run... I think the Euro comes this way though....how much remains to be seen. Just a hunch; I hate "hunch" talk but sometimes I'm at a loss for word. Called intuition? Maybe it is because the GGEM is a finer meshed tool of the Euro ilk, though obviously not performing with nearly the same panache for whatever reason; usually when one finer meshed run does this, at least one of the other will try and follow suit. anyway, that first panel with long easterly fetch through such a cold, cold lower tropospheric thickness would overcome oceanics and probably would mean way over producing from meso effects above and beyond the synotpic QPF graphic. No question - that run is a snow machine! We'll see ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 GGEM kind of looks like that Control run from Accu posted by abc1234 *(the same as the combination on my luggage ...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 wow, that is such eye-candy... That's a polar low.. the 0C 850mb pinches off right at the triple point, which is SE of Cape! What is this ? Circa 1717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Quite a few amped up puppies in the indiv. 12z GFS members today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z Euro has a similar look to the 12z GGEM. Really amped up system close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z Euro has a similar look to the 12z GGEM. Really amped up system close to the coast. Yeah, it seems that the run is trying to manage a lot of waves in fast timing - could be some interference there. It's also trying to pick up the next system - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am more interested in the storm the Euro is picking up around the 25th - 26th. Long way out, but I think that could be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am more interested in the storm the Euro is picking up around the 25th - 26th. Long way out, but I think that could be the real deal. Yeah, I would settle for multiple threats in there. It appears the Euro has spacing issues with S/W embedded in the flow, which is fine for this sort of time lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ensemble member P008 is nearly identical in placement, timing, and strength to the Euro Control run of yesterday. A whole bunch of other interesting possibilities in there as well. I think we may just be in business here. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ensemble member P008 is nearly identical in placement, timing, and strength to the Euro Control run of yesterday. A whole bunch of other interesting possibilities in there as well. I think we may just be in business here. Maybe. At this point the "threat" aspect of this is realized, but like all threats, we got to get to some sort of verification - lots of time. But already this thread should have a tremendous educational/look up referential value imo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Interesting that it was today's 18z operational GFS run that took the first definitive step toward focusing on this - btw, this is ferocious aloft with ecstatic degree of mass diffluent terms aloft - if this thing digs just a few d latitude sooner (spatial-temporally) and we'd be talking one mother absolute f'er of a bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Interesting that it was today's 18z operational GFS run that took the first definitive step toward focusing on this - btw, this is ferocious aloft with ecstatic degree of mass diffluent terms aloft - if this thing digs just a few d latitude sooner (spatial-temporally) and we'd be talking one mother absolute f'er of a bomb! I kind of think it was inevitable here as we get closer in time. First the Euro Control run yesterday morning, then the 12z Canadian today, now the 18z GFS. They seem to all be honing in on the possibilities here for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z CMC GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif It gets down into the 960s later frames...a full New England blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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