Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 And it's cooking 12/30. Pattern has come alive! Let's hope this is close to what we'll see, been a LONG time coming. Lots of excitement. Enormous for ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Pickles, it's. the winds. If they can stay more north, even mid level taint could be tolerated. Those are things impossible to predict this far out. i think they are impossible to know, but i don't like the odds of staying NNE , esp at logan. i don't like them at all. xmas storm should be nice, that i'm getting pretty excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 i think they are impossible to know, but i don't like the odds of staying NNE , esp at logan. i don't like them at all. xmas storm should be nice, that i'm getting pretty excited about Yeah one at a time. And the first one is snow. Euro tonight is 3-6 for BOS 12/25 and I'd run with that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah one at a time. And the first one is snow. Euro tonight is 3-6 for BOS 12/25 and I'd run with that in a heartbeat. Could very well be the better of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like it tracks it over the Cape this run. The interior would stay all or mostly frozen...with some sleet/ZR taint at the warmest point....but regardless, a big time winter storm on this run. Even BOS gets hit pretty hard on the front end. Still a long ways to go in this though. How is it generally between 84 and the Pike Will? A good amount of IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah one at a time. And the first one is snow. Euro tonight is 3-6 for BOS 12/25 and I'd run with that in a heartbeat. i'd say this if the first storm can do something anything at all to supress the second system then i think SNE will have a much better shot at a snowier solution....outside of GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 SWFE pattern it seems ns we initially are in a good spot so let it just play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 SWFE pattern it seems ns we initially are in a good spot so let it just play out. Very repetitious pattern. We just need(ed) to get on the right side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Really liking the overnight runs....ACK or Cape Cod tracks to over BOS can be very profitable. Going to be a fun week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Another crush job for us.. Wheeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We embrace huggers Yes, yes we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Days and days of snow next week. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles were just se of MTP to practically Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06z GEFS look to be right near the BM, but decent amount of spread. Pretty good consensus right now from Chatham to the BM for 5 days out. Plenty of time for wiggle room either way. The GEFS seem to have the better confluence with a lobe of vorticity that stretches from a deeper long wave trough exiting NewFoundland, to a s/w trough north of Lake Superior. It's definitely not a classic look, but it helps. try to keep the heights from going through the roof, ahead of the s/w in the southeast. Euro ensembles don't show this as much ans track closer to CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles were just se of MTP to practically Chatham. If this misses here to the SE... I really hope you get crushed. I'd gladly pass one up for the coastal MA folks... but wouldn't like it as much if it was just another East Slope/Berks jackpot, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If this misses here to the SE... I really hope you get crushed. I'd gladly pass one up for the coastal MA folks... but wouldn't like it as much if it was just another East Slope/Berks jackpot, lol. I still think the GEFS have been too far se, but the euro ensembles have gone slightly se too. Still 5 days left which is a long time for shifts 50 miles or so either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 And I highly doubt this misses you. This storm as of now is great for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If this misses here to the SE... I really hope you get crushed. I'd gladly pass one up for the coastal MA folks... but wouldn't like it as much if it was just another East Slope/Berks jackpot, lol. I don't think you have to worry about getting shutout yet. Almost every model hits you with near warning criteria. The key with the sfc track is for Scott staying more northerly and frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles were just se of MTP to practically Chatham. I approve of that track--and of the pattern on which we are apparently about to embark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I approve of that track--and of the pattern on which we are apparently about to embark. It crushes us all..and some even get some ice into the snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I am still so gunshy between last year and this start. Charlie Brown really morphs into Vinateiri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 PF has such a big heart, lol, got two feet this week and more today and is willing to sacrifice Scooter some snow on the 28 th, what a guy lol. Region wide biggie incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Models have not wavered much on this one, Still think we will see some subtitle shifts which may have big implications one way or the other for folks on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sort of an under-the-radar story line over the last week is that the operational GFS is precariously close to having taken the operational Euro out behind the woodshed regarding the 27th-28th scenario. Details aside ... it's general synoptic canvas featuring the more eastward track and midland intensity were facets the Euro took the last 4 days to come around to, and the GFS never really wavered (significantly enough) during that same time span. I find that interesting, if not something to keep in mind as we head deeper into an active pattern thereafter. I believe the GFS won the D6-8 interval at one other time earlier this season - or at least performed better, too. It's all enough to state factually that we cannot dismiss the GFS over the Euro. The PNA is very tightly clustered over at CPC, to rise from -1 to +1 SD over this next week - and in fact, this is yet again (twice now this season - let's see if this one comes to fruition!) a H. Archambault system. The CDC also agrees with the PNA rise, so perhaps the multi-agency support lends some additional credence here. With every model there is and their cast of ensembles more than less supporting, perhaps that is a foregone conclusion. The sweetest eye-candy was obviously the 00z GGEM for the last 12 hours of runs. It looks like a solid 20 hours of moderate to heavy snow, along with moderate wind impacts, from 126 hours through a 146 hours, then another 9 to 12 hours of wrap around waning. But I'm sure this has been covered. After all this, the teleconnectors are intriguing. The PNA is supported by the CPC and CDC to remain above 0.0 SD and in fact gain some D10-14 at CPC. While that is happening the -NAO at both the CPC and CDC goes on hiatus. Well clustered CPC members has it rising to +1 and change SD over the next week, while the erstwhile PNA and Pacific pattern is entering a new era (so to speak). The NAO then re-commits to the "apparent" seasonal bias by plummeting in the extended; but the intriguing part is that the PNA remains positive as said. That all offers an interesting window for cold/storminess during the first week to 10 days of January, for different governing reasons than just the PNA. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sort of an under-the-radar story line over the last week is that the operational GFS is precariously close to having taken the operational Euro out behind the woodshed regarding the 27th-28th scenario. Details aside ... it's general synoptic canvas featuring the more eastward track and midland intensity were facets the Euro took the last 4 days to come around to, and the GFS never really wavered (significantly enough) during that same time span. I find that interesting, if not something to keep in mind as we head deeper into an active pattern thereafter. I believe the GFS won the D6-8 interval at one other time earlier this season - or at least performed better, too. It's all enough to state factually that we cannot dismiss the GFS over the Euro. . Agreed on that, John. -sn 27.5/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah euro op as we said many times is too amped up in the long range. Luckily the ensembles were so much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 A little bit west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Apps cutter coming on this run....just east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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