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**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Any storm threats?

It has a block building west, which allows the day 6-7 vort to ride underneath it. But it then cuts it off out of nowhere and still manages to bring it into the lakes.

But ahead of it, there could be an overunning setup with a strong high to our north holding the cold in place.

It's definitely a good sign that the cold is being pushed closer and closer, despite what Brian678943 says.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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It has a block building west, which allows the day 6-7 vort to ride underneath it. But it then cuts it off out of nowhere and still manages to bring it into the lakes.

But ahead of it, there could be an overunning setup with a strong high to our north holding the cold in place.

It's definitely a good sign that the cold is being pushed closer and closer, despite what Brian678943 says.

It's mid to late December, one would hope the models are pushing the cold air closer. But we've had the models pushing it closer through various means for 2-3 weeks and it hasn't happened. What I see on the Euro and the GFS is groundhog day, another system running west into marginal air, redevelops etc. Great for the far north, for down here curtains. Again this is JMHO until about the first of the year. I still have hopes for a last minute miracle this weekend but it always seems the only times things change inside of 4-5 days is for the worse. Never the other way. That storm is modeled north of us over the weekend and this time the models will be dead on you watch :(
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

amazing how a day's worth of model runs can change the appeal so deeply. Yesterday the winter weather enthusiasts were facing the end of the world; today, the extended is replete with storm options of the colder variety.

in fact, it is not even abundantly clear that we are going to escape a major icing storm over the next 24 hours here in the interior - though temps now (finally) 31, might mitigate that threat to some degree. there is still cold available to drain, and a high sitting in a favorable position to add to that ageostrophic vector. we never did stop accreting here at the office in Westborough Ma... estimate about 31f by feel - there is a perpetual mist/drizzle that has a high icing efficiency, and the glow around the tree limbs etc looks like its nearing .3" thick. sagging has commenced...

personally...although fascinating to see, i would really rather not lose electricity if it comes to that.

anyway, the NOGAPs and the Euro runs are both showing interesting solutions that exemplify a very active middle and extended range. NCEP's all over this, as well. blocking is just unrelenting, and i suspect that it's nodally inconsistent in the runs, sometimes manifesting more as a -EPO, at others -NAO, at other still more -AO with undercut -PNA. the models are just prone to enhanced stochastic output these days. have to give it time. NOGAPs would extrapolate into a nor'easter, and although warmer in the lower tropospheric thicknesses, the Euro has a giant 1996-esque looking 500mb pig moving toward the MA with a weakening 50/50 SPV.

lots and lots and lots to cover/monitor.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Fascinating…look at Beverly Mass on the N Shore – they flipped to SN- shortly after the ageostrophic flow overtook them:

171953 OVC002 1 -SNBR 37 35 3409 132 001

171941 BKN002 OVC007 1.75 -RABR 37 36 3309

171853 BKN005 OVC011 2 -RABR 45 43 0704 130 003

May not be real…but -

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted

amazing how a day's worth of model runs can change the appeal so deeply. Yesterday the winter weather enthusiasts were facing the end of the world; today, the extended is replete with storm options of the colder variety.

in fact, it is not even abundantly clear that we are going to escape a major icing storm over the next 24 hours here in the interior - though temps now (finally) 31, might mitigate that threat to some degree. there is still cold available to drain, and a high sitting in a favorable position to add to that ageostrophic vector. we never did stop accreting here at the office in Westborough Ma... estimate about 31f by feel - there is a perpetual mist/drizzle that has a high icing efficiency, and the glow around the tree limbs etc looks like its nearing .3" thick. sagging has commenced...

personally...although fascinating to see, i would really rather not lose electricity if it comes to that.

anyway, the NOGAPs and the Euro runs are both showing interesting solutions that exemplify a very active middle and extended range. NCEP's all over this, as well. blocking is just unrelenting, and i suspect that it's nodally inconsistent in the runs, sometimes manifesting more as a -EPO, at others -NAO, at other still more -AO with undercut -PNA. the models are just prone to enhanced stochastic output these days. have to give it time. NOGAPs would extrapolate into a nor'easter, and although warmer in the lower tropospheric thicknesses, the Euro has a giant 1996-esque looking 500mb pig moving toward the MA with a weakening 50/50 SPV.

lots and lots and lots to cover/monitor.

I think it’s funny that the Euro and GFS decide to throw out their own modeled 1040 high in favor of a much weaker one in terms of outcome. You know a few years ago both models would do the following: 5-7 days out storm piling into the BM under a strong high to the north, only to watch the strength of that high be overdone, and lakes cutter commences. Now they ignore their own 1040 and say fugit lakes cutter anyway.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Extrapolating the NOGAPs can be dangerous to your health.

As I wrote ... and you selectively filtered out so as to spin... it's not the only model exemplifying an active pattern, which was clearly the point of those statements overall.

GONAPS model is called that for a reason -

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

As I wrote ... and you selectively filtered out so as to spin... it's not the only model exemplifying an active pattern, which was clearly the point of those statements overall.

GONAPS model is called that for a reason -

Haha, I know Tip... not trying to "spin" anything with that statement lol. More just the fact that its the first time in a long time I've heard anyone even mention that model.

Yeah the pattern is definitely active...doubt anyone is trying to spin anything different than that. Multiple rain or mixed events this week definitely speaks to it being active.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Man 18z GFS was a weenie run for here with a 36 hour upslope event this weekend. Definitely could be a snowy weekend in the lake belts and upslope regions.

Pretty solid QPF signal for being so far out...and GFS grid limitations will always be underdone in the favored areas and overdone in other areas (like Champlain Valley and Saint Lawerance Valley).

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Man 18z GFS was a weenie run for here with a 36 hour upslope event this weekend. Definitely could be a snowy weekend in the lake belts and upslope regions.

Pretty solid QPF signal for being so far out...and GFS grid limitations will always be underdone in the favored areas and overdone in other areas (like Champlain Valley and Saint Lawerance Valley).

Even a weenie band of 1-3 for much of SNE..Hopefully as we get closer..your weenie BTV meso model prints out measurable snows down here

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

The winter of the cutter, just nothing stopping these storms from cutting even as temps fall back to near normal levels. +5 here today, disgusting weather rain and low 50s tomorrow, chill down another cutter friday.........rinse and repeat.

Grotesque.

Like I said groundhog day with these storms. I don't care what the models show, I think most are destined to attempt a west run on us and then we've got this soup air that's okay from the pike north for some sliding around. Maybe after the first it changes...but we need to start seeing more cold air in advance of these storms.
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