OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is going to on the northern side again, I think. Vort lobe for the rex block is breaking down the ridging east of Sandy just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 so far dead nuts with 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Deeper, identical location through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS out to 48....no observable change from 6z. At least as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 so far dead nuts with 6z Yep. I'm comparing the two.Carbon copy so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You know that the GFS you posted was the 12z run from WED right? He does that a lot. I think ctblizz is his cousin. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah I saw that, ultimately I wonder if the Euro is too far west..isbeing indicated by the super low - ridiculously so , pressure it's forecasting? If the processes in the modeling back off to end up with a 950-965mb low would it not tuck it as far west...I'd say that's very likely. JMHO. enormous inflow, my red add, and about to get juiced up by a polar jet, East Coast in deep crap from DC To Portland, winds, surge, rain, snow, millions w/o power . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Low slightly NW through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 hrs 54-66 GFS is moving NE... going to be on of those wide captures again (unless it comes in like the 0z GGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS east of 6z. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Watching this over the next 18-24 hours will probably tell us a lot with the positioning...which models might be more likely to verify. Forward speed is important too and not just longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 well, the trough over Tennessee is slightly stronger...backing flow a bit more in the Mid-Atlantic, but the ridging to the east is slightly weaker due to some interacting with the rex block to the east, so maybe it ends up a wash compared to the 06z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NCEP NAM precip...note the location of Sandy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol...gfs gets to like 68W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS east of 6z. Jeez. Between 57 and about 63/66 there's a big bobble to the east. Weird. And at that point it just doesn't recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Appears GFS is coming further East....this is getting ridic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looking at the trof I posted I thought it would phase quicker, now its east? ridge has to be weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 this run is going to punish sne again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfs is still out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It remains a game as to which model is properly modeling the block. Sent from my DROIDX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Further NE by about 80 miles at hr 84. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Based on these 2 runs Euro should come NE even if just a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 this run is going to punish sne again. If the GFS or NAM is right you could have a fun Mon-Wed. Anyway, GFS is slower then the NAM. Might not make landfall until late Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfs is still out to lunch. I'm not so sure. If the EURO had support from any other "global" model aside of the NOGAPs I'd think it was on the right track. Not thinking it is. New GFS/NAM/RGEM are all damaging hits up into the upper mid atlantic/SNE. Euro wagons NE I think as it backs off on the uber pressure this run. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Based on these 2 runs Euro should come NE even if just a little EURO has barely moved in the past 10 runs or so, while GFS has been all over the place up and down the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS ala Tom Petty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I still think this is going to be a big hit for NE on this run...the players are all there for a sharp turn back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Dendrite....We all make errors...seriously.. putting that aside..Last night's GFS run and this morning's is really not much different btw's..so take it for what it says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looking at the trof I posted I thought it would phase quicker, now its east? ridge has to be weaker. model perturbations over the last few days have a lot more to do with the strength of the ridge and the rex block interaction than the strength of the OV/Tennessee Valley trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfs landfall near ack/chh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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