Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV

[CT Rain]

It makes you appreciate the simplicity of the 1938 setup.

Yup.

[HM]

This thing will have gale force winds like 300+ miles NE of the center. No question. But the core of strongest winds I think are within 150-200 miles NE of the center. Seems to be the idea when looking at the LLJ.

The hybrid nature will produce a very unusual structure/appearance at the time when the low is bombing / coming ashore. Imagine, of course, the deform/comma shield sprawled out to the west/southwest and then "feeder" turbulent rolls within the warm seclusion that enhance wind, convection etc. These "shock waves" rotating around the center will not bring steady rain but certainly will make their presence felt as they hit. I don't wish to speculate on what some of the worst ones will do but this appearance will be post-hurricane into cyclone look, ala 91', but not quite a comma head either. A sort of "in between" type of look and it will be awesome.

[TalcottWx]

At this time frame, everything considered. I would pick Atlantic City as my LF point, on the record. At this point

Just realized that's nearly identical to the NHC track... I apologize for my lack of originality...

I am excited about the prospects of strengthening off the coast of the mid atlantic. The satellite presentation and wv should be amazing.

[Ginx snewx]

Now we're talking. This is what we should be duscussing

I have a hard time buying the sharp west turn of the Euro with the tightly wound up storm unless Sandy regains her tight core soon we are going to see the East then NW solutions come into play. Obviously as usual models are subject to variability. That being said we will be this afternoon inside the Euro's deadly zone.

[CT Rain]

The hybrid nature will produce a very unusual structure/appearance at the time when the low is bombing / coming ashore. Imagine, of course, the deform/comma shield sprawled out to the west/southwest and then "feeder" turbulent rolls within the warm seclusion that enhance wind, convection etc. These "shock waves" rotating around the center will not bring steady rain but certainly will make their presence felt as they hit. I don't wish to speculate on what some of the worst ones will do but this appearance will be post-hurricane into cyclone look, ala 91', but not quite a comma head either. A sort of "in between" type of look and it will be awesome.

I think people are in for a surprise when they look at this thing bombing on Monday afternoon.

[Ginx snewx]

The hybrid nature will produce a very unusual structure/appearance at the time when the low is bombing / coming ashore. Imagine, of course, the deform/comma shield sprawled out to the west/southwest and then "feeder" turbulent rolls within the warm seclusion that enhance wind, convection etc. These "shock waves" rotating around the center will not bring steady rain but certainly will make their presence felt as they hit. I don't wish to speculate on what some of the worst ones will do but this appearance will be post-hurricane into cyclone look, ala 91', but not quite a comma head either. A sort of "in between" type of look and it will be awesome.

Yea this looks like an up close and personal version of 91. Seas will be unreal.

[Skivt2]

Yeah a little south of the op into sandy hook or just south.

Ironic if Sandy hooked into Sandy Hook

[Brian5671]

Looks like Sandy will not come that close to Florida as the Euro had at 0z? Wonder if that has implications down the road or is it meaningless?

[HM]

I think people are in for a surprise when they look at this thing bombing on Monday afternoon.

The warm conveyor belt will be littered with these tight convective bands and I wouldn't even rule out hail in some of them away from the warm core /center where the DCB is infiltrating. I also wouldn't downplay the tornadic potential here either, despite the lack of modeled CAPE. The amount of moisture, lift and shear are surely sufficient.

[CT Rain]

Sandy just looks horrific on the first visible images of the day.

Naked swirl... convection to the north of the center and a large dry intrusion to the east.

[CT Rain]

The warm conveyor belt will be littered with these tight convective bands and I wouldn't even rule out hail in some of them away from the warm core /center where the DCB is infiltrating. I also wouldn't downplay the tornadic potential here either, despite the lack of modeled CAPE. The amount of moisture, lift and shear are surely sufficient.

Yeah I agree.

[HM]

Yea this looks like an up close and personal version of 91. Seas will be unreal.

Yes it could take on that appearance too at some point when the bombing process begins.

[Damage In Tolland]

HM.. Where you leaning for LF? Jersey?

[dryslot]

The 06 GFS run is epic.

Yeah looked at it earlier this am, 12z runs will be huge today

[forkyfork]

The warm conveyor belt will be littered with these tight convective bands and I wouldn't even rule out hail in some of them away from the warm core /center where the DCB is infiltrating. I also wouldn't downplay the tornadic potential here either, despite the lack of modeled CAPE. The amount of moisture, lift and shear are surely sufficient.

the warm front feature looks interesting

[HM]

HM.. Where you leaning for LF? Jersey?

This may be very stupid (going against the ECMWF) but I'm still worried about an adjustment east over the next 48 hours. Between the tug of the Central Atlantic Low and the bombing process this weekend, I feel the models are downplaying the eastward momentum Sandy will have. This give and take between her own inertia and the negative tilt, incoming trough will make landfall predictions close to useless at this range.

Consider me in the Northeast camp, possibly a long island hit.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Then when you include all tropical models..

http://derecho.math....ls/al182012.png

How accurate will tropical models be though when you have Sandy interacting with an incoming trough?

[Mr Torchey]

This may be very stupid (going against the ECMWF) but I'm still worried about an adjustment east over the next 48 hours. Between the tug of the Central Atlantic Low and the bombing process this weekend, I feel the models are downplaying the eastward momentum Sandy will have. This give and take between her own inertia and the negative tilt, incoming trough will make landfall predictions close to useless at this range.

Consider me in the Northeast camp, possibly a long island hit.

Kleenex stock just went through the roof in Tolland Ct.

HM,to me it looks as though its possible the worst coastal flooding as with Irene maybe in parts of western long island sound, with a long east to south east fetch over many tide cycles, and the water being trapped, and of course astro on top. What do you think the ceiling is on a surge into the western sound?

[Ginx snewx]

This may be very stupid (going against the ECMWF) but I'm still worried about an adjustment east over the next 48 hours. Between the tug of the Central Atlantic Low and the bombing process this weekend, I feel the models are downplaying the eastward momentum Sandy will have. This give and take between her own inertia and the negative tilt, incoming trough will make landfall predictions close to useless at this range.

Consider me in the Northeast camp, possibly a long island hit.

I am in agreement with your assessment, long couple of days

[CoastalWx]

How accurate will tropical models be though when you have Sandy interacting with an incoming trough?

I don't know...that's why I included all the guidance. It shows you how complicated it is. I mean, tropical models have done ok up this way in previous storms that were undergoing x-tropical transition...although we have not seen a phase like this. So on one side...it's tough to go against, but this situation is possibly not the best for them...I really only can guess. I sort of look at the global models for this, but that doesn't help much with the euro going towards the tropical camp. Here is another question. GFS has done well with tropical cyclones. Is the euro with higher resolution going to act like the NAM and get too phase happy? Yes it is the more accurate model, but could some sort of paramterization allow it to be too phase happy and turn west? Perhaps, but I only can speculate.

Like HM, the possibility exists for less of a turn NW and then all of the sudden LI is in the cross hairs. So while I think something maybe near ACY or ctrl NJ may be my best guess for now....I am worried about something further north. By no means is this settled over 96 hrs out. 12z runs today should help narrow the cone, I hope.

[Cloudsncontrails]

If that were to happen, there would be a boat show on the main line of Amtrak. A lot of boats are still in the water at local marinas and I wonder if the current official track is having people keep their boats in the water longer than they should. If the cone comes north, there will be a 48-hour rush at marinas like we have never seen before.

I'm currently in Annapolis. People are barely talking about this, and I haven't hear a peep about this storm on the radio. There are still a ton of boats in the marinas down here. It seems like the NY/New England doomsday scenario got played a little bit too heavy early on. If there's an area that should be preparing know, it's SNJ, DE, and MD. We all should, but I think this storm is going to surprise a lot of people in the Mid Atlantic.

[WMASShole1]

I'm holding on to a NY/SNE hit. I have to give most reliable guidance to the GFS, the closer to landfall we get. I agree though, the 12z runs later are going to be very telling as to where she will go. If she stays inside the 70th parallel, she will probably turn into jersey, but if she slides east past the 70th, she will take the gradual NW turn towards NY/SNE

[HM]

Kleenex stock just went through the roof in Tolland Ct.

HM,to me it looks as though its possible the worst coastal flooding as with Irene maybe in parts of western long island sound, with a long east to south east fetch over many tide cycles, and the water being trapped, and of course astro on top. What do you think the ceiling is on a surge into the western sound?

I would leave this question open to the mets in your area that know more about it but I would say there is never a ceiling on surge in any situation. While this won't have the power of 1938, it will have duration and areal coverage on top of rapid deepning. The winds could pile water well into Wednesday and possibly even for a time early Thursday. While the ECMWF may not appear exciting in terms of wind for the area, it would still be quite bad for coastal flooding/surge. If a situation where Long Island becomes the landfall location, I could see max storm surges exceeding 10 feet and possibly coming well inland.

[weatherwiz]

I would leave this question open to the mets in your area that know more about it but I would say there is never a ceiling on surge in any situation. While this won't have the power of 1938, it will have duration and areal coverage on top of rapid deepning. The winds could pile water well into Wednesday and possibly even for a time early Thursday. While the ECMWF may not appear exciting in terms of wind for the area, it would still be quite bad for coastal flooding/surge. If a situation where Long Island becomes the landfall location, I could see max storm surges exceeding 10 feet and possibly coming well inland.

I pretty much think at this point we're going to see some pretty extreme coastal flooding...anyone living along the immediate coast should be on the highest alert.

[Couchsachraga]

A question which I realize it may be too early to address: Most of the discussion is around where landfall may be, and the patterns associated with that landfall. For areas further inland what are the probable impacts precipitation and wind wise in the respective quadrants? I'm well aware of the potential for significant snow at higher elevations in the SW quadrant in some model runs, but what are the other general thoughts at this time?

Thank you to all the mets who participate in this forum during times like these - I know you could be using the time to be getting some well needed rest!

[HM]

I pretty much think at this point we're going to see some pretty extreme coastal flooding...anyone living along the immediate coast should be on the highest alert.

In 1938, it came in like a bullet with already built up sea heights. It managed to bring 8 feet of water 1 mile inland across southern New England and I don't have to tell you the numbers at the coast.

This storm will have a 1992/1962 type of an effect but even those storms aren't analogous should the current NWP be correct. Perhaps some mets with more knowledge can chime in on storm surge/coastal flooding in this area.

[SBUWX23]

some ET going on already. subtropical jet is down there...

Sandy just looks horrific on the first visible images of the day.

Naked swirl... convection to the north of the center and a large dry intrusion to the east.

[CT Rain]

I would leave this question open to the mets in your area that know more about it but I would say there is never a ceiling on surge in any situation. While this won't have the power of 1938, it will have duration and areal coverage on top of rapid deepning. The winds could pile water well into Wednesday and possibly even for a time early Thursday. While the ECMWF may not appear exciting in terms of wind for the area, it would still be quite bad for coastal flooding/surge. If a situation where Long Island becomes the landfall location, I could see max storm surges exceeding 10 feet and possibly coming well inland.

This is what I have in my "worst case scenario" for this storm. 10 feet in the Sound.

Irene was ~5 and we saw what an ill-timed 5ft can do.

TBH I'm quite concerned about NYC even if a more Euro-esque solution verifies.

[CT Rain]

some ET going on already. subtropical jet is down there...

Yeah still warm core but seems to becoming a bit more asymmetric. I'd argue it's more an ugly sheared look than actual ET... at least based on what I've seen from recon and the phase space diagrams... but yes... probably getting underway, albeit slowly.

[HM]

This is what I have in my "worst case scenario" for this storm. 10 feet in the Sound.

Irene was ~5 and we saw what an ill-timed 5ft can do.

TBH I'm quite concerned about NYC even if a more Euro-esque solution verifies.

Look, we're reasonable guys and we've shown that over the summer convective season (although I like to hype when I can!) but let's be real: NYC is in some real trouble if this storm doesn't track to the East. While the memory of Irene is firmly placed in the back of people's minds with the pathetic 6-12" surge at Battery, my worry is no one will take it seriously. I couldn't possibly speculate on the water that would pile up in NYC but it would be devastating. There has been a lot of research since 1992 about the possibility and I remember the simulations were terrifying if a major hurricane bolted into NYC, akin to 1938 but further West.