neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Fox and BZ seem to be Euro huggers as well...though...though the GFS run just seen on TWC shows a massive hit to SNE..where it takes it into LI and then north into SNE....anyone have a link for that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Pretty nervous for my son Matt who is in Conn working on a movie set there...He lives in Brooklyn NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We still might get 60 knots gusts "across all of CT" if it made landfall in the Delmarva....I'm just telling you that is not really what the Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS pressure was 956 mb looks like..maybe as we get closer to the phasing time we get more realistic pressures for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We still might get 60 knots gusts "across all of CT" if it made landfall in the Delmarva....I'm just telling you that is not really what the Euro showed. Well Gibbs isn';t going to make that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well Gibbs isn';t going to make that up We'll certainly get to test the theory if the Euro's track is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We still might get 60 knots gusts "across all of CT" if it made landfall in the Delmarva....I'm just telling you that is not really what the Euro showed. He was looking at the pro accuwx 10m wind gust product. I think it's a product derived by Accuwx and I'm guessing it is mixing too generously. The Euro to me... now that I look more closely... looks like a run of the mill nor'easter in SNE as you mentioned Will. If the Euro track verifies it will be rather meh here in SNE with the potential for severe coastal flooding still in the Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 While I liked a farther north trend... it's hard to argue with the really sizable shift south in the NHC tropical mnodels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 While I liked a farther north trend... it's hard to argue with the really sizable shift south in the NHC tropical mnodels. Maxon riding GFS..and hitting it hard on tv as he should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 He was looking at the pro accuwx 10m wind gust product. I think it's a product derived by Accuwx and I'm guessing it is mixing too generously. The Euro to me... now that I look more closely... looks like a run of the mill nor'easter in SNE as you mentioned Will. If the Euro track verifies it will be rather meh here in SNE with the potential for severe coastal flooding still in the Sound. I think the Euro ensembles would be a lot worse for us...they take a wider turn which puts it further north. Something is still sitting really uneasy with me about the sharpness of the turn to the left. Its obviously going to turn left, but the magnitude is a bit questionable. This storm starts getting pretty far wide right...even the OP Euro has the storm like 200-300 miles E of HSE at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 He was looking at the pro accuwx 10m wind gust product. I think it's a product derived by Accuwx and I'm guessing it is mixing too generously. The Euro to me... now that I look more closely... looks like a run of the mill nor'easter in SNE as you mentioned Will. If the Euro track verifies it will be rather meh here in SNE with the potential for severe coastal flooding still in the Sound. that thing is horrible. i think we may have a situation where there is actually two wind maxes. one potentially close to the center (though i'm not sure there) and another way removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 still think the op euro is too strong and too far s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think the Euro ensembles would be a lot worse for us...they take a wider turn which puts it further north. Something is still sitting really uneasy with me about the sharpness of the turn to the left. Its obviously going to turn left, but the magnitude is a bit questionable. This storm starts getting pretty far wide right...even the OP Euro has the storm like 200-300 miles E of HSE at that latitude. Agreed. That's what I'm thinking as well. My gut tells me north even though the models continue to go south. NHC now on the right edge of the 6z tropical models at time of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that thing is horrible. i think we may have a situation where there is actually two wind maxes. one potentially close to the center (though i'm not sure there) and another way removed. Yeah I'm going to call BS on that one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 still think the op euro is too strong and too far s Adam mentioned on the radio that when he forecast ET transitioning TC's in the west pac, the euro was too strong with all of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Calling this a run of the mill noreaster is simply bad meteorology..Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Calling this a run of the mill noreaster is simply bad meteorology..Period Dude... stop. If the Euro verifies and makes landfall that far south the impact in your backyard will likely be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Agreed. That's what I'm thinking as well. My gut tells me north even though the models continue to go south. NHC now on the right edge of the 6z tropical models at time of landfall. Yeah so little margin for error on the final track based on a small amount of timing with the left hand turn...if we delay this turn just a bit, then we could be talking 150-200 miles difference in landfall spot. My gut also says north of the OP Euro...maybe somwhere in NJ. Its hard to estimate though...just a slightly less amplified turn and it goes NW into NYC/LI. The Euro literally goes WSW between 84-90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 While I liked a farther north trend... it's hard to argue with the really sizable shift south in the NHC tropical mnodels. There's always the LBAR to consider..... On a speculative note--are the models capable of dealing with situations like the highly anomalous nature of the block, idiosynchratic nature of TC's, and the combination of the trough. In other words, are their forecasting abilities compromised as atmospheric parameters expand further from "normal"? I suppose we'll see...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Will we have to worry about any inversions at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Will we have to worry about any inversions at all? I'm not sure why we wouldn't. If we didn't have them, we'd be gusting to like 110 mph, lol. If we rip this thing into NNJ and we can dryslot with some breaks of sun, that would probably be the way to maximize winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Have to lean on the EURO's consistency. Then factor in the other models. You would get a consensus hit somewhere on the Jersey Shore. I see a lot of people saying that but a few days ago the Euro was much further north and it's been sliding south. If anything, that slide has been consistent for a while but not the track. Having said that, I agree that the New Jersey Shore seems like a safe bet at this point. I think the Euro and the NHC track are too far south, but we'll see where today's guidance get's us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that thing is horrible. i think we may have a situation where there is actually two wind maxes. one potentially close to the center (though i'm not sure there) and another way removed. if sandy doesn't have much of a core now, how will it have one up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Calling this a run of the mill noreaster is simply bad meteorology..Period dude these are your worst kind of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 if sandy doesn't have much of a core now, how will it have one up here? Will be interesting to see how much the storm can reintensify north of NC. I also wouldn't rule out the storm regaining some convection around the center next 36 hours. Obviously nothing dramatic... but we could see a bit of reorganization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 if sandy doesn't have much of a core now, how will it have one up here? i could see it regaining some of that as it starts to move parallel to the flow. plus sometimes the hybrid systems act quite tropical very close to the center of the system while the rest of the storm resembles a more typical mid-latitude cyclone. but that's why i said "not sure on that" as i think it's hard to know exactly what the storm structure will be in 24/48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Also... it's possible if the Euro is right we get a sort of meh amount of rain at least during and preceding the strong winds. In that case, with some leaves off the trees, we'd probably looking at much less tree damage than you'd ordinarily expect with the same amount of wind during a August/September TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm not sure why we wouldn't. If we didn't have them, we'd be gusting to like 110 mph, lol. If we rip this thing into NNJ and we can dryslot with some breaks of sun, that would probably be the way to maximize winds. Having inversions aloft will certainly make the wind forecast quite challenging. We've seen how even the skimpiest of inversions can vastly limit the amount of winds which mix down. That's a great point too about the potential for a dry slot with a track like that...didn't even think of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 06z GEFS intrl Central NJ or a hair north of that. The tropical models are discouraging and I don't like seeing that and the euro..makes me think south. However, I think Will and Ryan just said it and we mentioned it yesterday....any little deviation to the right as it turns NW would have big implications due to the geographic layout of the east coast, so that needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There is nothing about this that is run of the mill..Nothing..and it's careless to use that..Because people are going to think no big deal..when in fact it's a big deal into NNE If the euro is right..it will not be a big deal for you. Not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.